DrivenEvents
549 posts
DrivenEvents
@Neb2323
Ex sell-side research analyst/ ex event-driven hedge fund guy. All commentary is my opinion and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation.
Katılım Eylül 2011
642 Takip Edilen881 Takipçiler
One of my favorite pasta recipes and it’s not pesto - have a guess - no asparagus involved either…. Will be on substack this week
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I politely gave him the benefit of the doubt when first calling this out (assuming it was just an honest mistake) but it seems it's not. Still can't believe that his post has 55k impressions, 204 likes and isn't FLOODED with comments explaining that it is totally backwards. Why not correct it?
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$SPX | $SPY Yesterday’s +3% was a gamma squeeze.
And no, it wasn’t set for 6475 but for 6515.
Here’s a replay of yesterday’s nodes on $SPX:
1) Around 11AM we noticed that 6515 Short Gamma node getting massive exposure. It’s the purple bar at the 6515 strike. And which I immediately called on the subs.
Watch how price action behaves once this negative/short gamma appeared.
2) What mechanics occur when we see short gamma?
Customers are net short options & dealers are the ones who bought those options, meaning that:
Dealers are now long options.
Long options = short gamma.
And there is when their hedging flips and they have to do this exact thing:
If price goes up dealers need to buy stock.
If price goes down dealers need to sell stock.
They need hedge WITH THE MOVE.
They have to chase price. Not to pin it, not to control it.
Yesterday was such a scenario, which we called to the exact moment it appeared. ✍🏻
If you want to know the exact levels dealers are hedged on, all you have to do is click the link in my bio and grab your Heatseeker as well. Best choice of your lives.
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I've been using it so long (mainly on the weekly timeframe) that I've almost forgotten...I think I read a study 20 years ago when I was a PM working in the Principal Strategies group of a large bank that sucessfully backtested the 22/55 EMA for SPX (weekly timeframe) as a trend-following strategy. It's of course not going to diverge significantly from 21/50 but I think it smoothes it out a bit.
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Took a starter position in $PLTR puts: EMA 22/55 already in a bear trend and rejecting recent attempt to cross up. This is also a hedge/bet on Republicans losing the mid-term elections. In my view, Dems will go after this company full throttle if they control Congress (think it's one of the most direct ways to "short" the current admin). *NFA
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@VolSignals i’m almost tagged you in my response to this….saw the post last night with literally 3k impressions 50 likes and no one noticed it was backwards…state of the retail options market i guess?
x.com/neb2323/status…
DrivenEvents@Neb2323
I imagine this was a simple mistake as you were writing (perhaps quickly) but you have this backwards: long options=long gamma, short options =short gamma. Dealers have to hedge in the same direction as price moves when short gamma (magnifying moves) and in the opposite direction when long gamma (dampening price moves)
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Guy builds gamma platform
Guy runs aggressive guerilla marketing campaign to generate FOMO
One look at posts
Does not understand dealer hedging
GIF
Han Akamatsu 赤松@Han_Akamatsu
$SPX | $SPY Yesterday’s +3% was a gamma squeeze. And no, it wasn’t set for 6475 but for 6515. Here’s a replay of yesterday’s nodes on $SPX: 1) Around 11AM we noticed that 6515 Short Gamma node getting massive exposure. It’s the purple bar at the 6515 strike. And which I immediately called on the subs. Watch how price action behaves once this negative/short gamma appeared. 2) What mechanics occur when we see short gamma? Customers are net short options & dealers are the ones who bought those options, meaning that: Dealers are now long options. Long options = short gamma. And there is when their hedging flips and they have to do this exact thing: If price goes up dealers need to buy stock. If price goes down dealers need to sell stock. They need hedge WITH THE MOVE. They have to chase price. Not to pin it, not to control it. Yesterday was such a scenario, which we called to the exact moment it appeared. ✍🏻 If you want to know the exact levels dealers are hedged on, all you have to do is click the link in my bio and grab your Heatseeker as well. Best choice of your lives.
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Re-entered these $PLTR puts at the close yesterday. *NFA
DrivenEvents@Neb2323
Took a starter position in $PLTR puts: EMA 22/55 already in a bear trend and rejecting recent attempt to cross up. This is also a hedge/bet on Republicans losing the mid-term elections. In my view, Dems will go after this company full throttle if they control Congress (think it's one of the most direct ways to "short" the current admin). *NFA
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@Han_Akamatsu yes but if a dealer sells an option they are short the option and thus short gamma. The buying institution is long the option and thus long gamma. You can’t be long an option and short gamma on that same option.
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@Neb2323 Dealers typically take the other side of customer flow, no?
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@DeepSailCapital The year is 2040: Pundits crow as President Jake Paul presides over the first single day 3,000 point move in the Dow
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This is a litmus test for anyone that doesn’t understand Bayesian economics.
Ryan Detrick, CMT@RyanDetrick
This was the 16th 1,000 point gain ever for the Dow. President Trump has 14 of them.
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@TexasOncologist @INArteCarloDoss Wait, so they stole the "uncomfortable life" line from a TV character known for her reckless and habitual use of lorazepam (often with alcohol)? Seems apt 😂
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@INArteCarloDoss People holding Bitcoin at $66K probably feel a little "uncomfortable"
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@TexasOncologist Rarely laugh out loud at memes but "Mullah Moolah" got me good.
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@TheMarketRaven Hold on, a Wendy's meal deal where you get a free XSP 0DTE 1 hr to expiry contract with a Dave's Single combo would be one hell of a late afternoon promotion
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If you cant afford a .65 cent contract. Go to Wendy's and get a application and save up until you can
unusual whaleballs@grkfitness
@TheMarketRaven Do you have a smaller account play? Lmao jk
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These moved 25% fast intraday so now closed out.
DrivenEvents@Neb2323
Took a starter position in $PLTR puts: EMA 22/55 already in a bear trend and rejecting recent attempt to cross up. This is also a hedge/bet on Republicans losing the mid-term elections. In my view, Dems will go after this company full throttle if they control Congress (think it's one of the most direct ways to "short" the current admin). *NFA
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Agree--actually just posted same view as my rationale for betting against $PLTR...I think a Dem controlled Congress will go after $PLTR full-throttle (it's the poster child for many of the current admin policies and they could scrutinize/subpoena endlessly, etc)
x.com/Neb2323/status…
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Unpopular opinion:
Republicans are going to lose midterm.
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@MichaelAArouet US debt/GDP at 100% now and forecast to be c 120% soon though
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France was a really great country. It all ended though, when the far-left Mitterrand was elected president.
The only thing really growing in France since then has been debt/GDP: from 22% when Mitterrand was elected to 116% today.
Don’t be like modern-day France.
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$MSFT @ 4.80 from 4.15
The Market Raven@TheMarketRaven
$MSFT 4/2 365C @ 4.15 AVG ❤️ for a chart
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“I am not the one who breaks. I am the one who HAS A BREAK!”
CBS News@CBSNews
A massive 12-ton shipment of Nestle's crunch KitKat bars was stolen in a chocolaty heist that risks causing a shortage in stores right before Easter. cbsn.ws/40Z0ADi
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