AG

@ThinFloat Totally agree on this one. It's one of the greatest brands in the world. I believe it can make a great comeback one day in more competent hands. No position here of course

1/ Tim Cook bought $3M of Nike at $59 in December. It's $44 now. The CEO of Apple just lost $750K on a sneaker company in 4 months. This is the stock fintwit keeps telling you to "buy the dip" on. Let me show you why $NKE might be the biggest value trap in the market 🧵

@REALLee_Finlay @IRanMediaco @grok Muslim countries should help each other!

@IRanMediaco @Grok is Italy part of this no flight nonsense. Since the PM of Italy is right wing and supports President Trump?

BREAKING NEWS: France joins Spain and Italy in blocking US aircraft movements over its territory.

@cashflowdog מה אתה אומר על האיסור בחלק מהמדינות על הילדים מתחת לגיל 16 להשתמש ברשתות חברתיות, לא יפגע במטה בטווח הקרוב ובעיקר הבינוני?

הראה לי את התמריץ, ואראה לך את התוצאה. תזכרו מדובר בחברה עם מנכל מייסד, שהביא את החברה עד הלום, כלומר שווי שוק של 1.5 טריליון.

@realroseceline Well said

Thoughts on $FICO Most people writing about $FICO spend their time breaking down the business, the moat, and the incredible economics. It’s all true, and there are already plenty of great deep dives, podcast, etc that explain it better than I could. What matters to me is much simpler, the business and investing lesson. $FICO is not just a product, it’s a toll bridge model business. Every time credit gets issued, underwritten, priced, or evaluated, they participate in the process. That’s not software in the traditional sense, that’s like infrastructure, and when you are infrastructure your pricing stops being pricing and starts being like a tax on the system. That’s exactly what made this such an incredible business. For a long time they could raise prices with very little resistance and it flowed almost directly into profits because the model is asset light and possesses elite economics. The move to ~$2000 per share and greater than 60x earnings didn’t happen by accident, it was the result of just how far growth and pricing power could be pushed. But there’s a level where pricing power stops being a strength and starts becoming a problem. The paradox is that the stronger your pricing power is, the more disciplined you actually need to be with it, because if you’re not something else will step in and impose that discipline for you. $FICO didn’t lose pricing power, they exercised it too aggressively. Large increases that were easy to track and hard to ignore changed the dynamic. It’s not just how much you charge, it’s how obvious you make it, and once that line gets crossed certain eyes and ears begin to notice. And political risk is a completely different game. It moves slowly and it unusually doesn’t resolve cleanly in favor of the so called “greedy company” and its shareholders. You’re no longer just asking how much they can charge, you’re asking how much they’re allowed to charge, and when something becomes as embedded and essential as $FICO things probably change. You can exist, you can be profitable, but you can’t behave like an unconstrained monopolist on something this critical. That’s why the shift is subtle but important. $FICO is moving from being a pure free market compounder into something closer to probably a “meli regulated” business. The business itself hasn’t broken. The moat is still there, the demand isn’t going anywhere, but the environment around it is no longer forgiving, and that changes the way the whole thing compounds. For a long time the formula was simple, raise prices, expand margins, let the asset light economic model do the work, and it felt almost effortless. And again, that’s why it was priced at a nosebleed valuation. Now even if pricing power is still strong, it’s under a microscope, and when that happens the compounding doesn’t disappear, it just slows down and becomes less predictable. This isn’t about collapse, it’s probably the end of easy compounding, the kind where everything works in your favor and nobody pushes back. Situations like this usually take time because nothing forces a quick resolution. It becomes a patience game, a gradual change in expectations, in behavior, in what’s acceptable. The irony is the biggest risk to $FICO was never competition, it was success taken too far. 🌹

@3002076 @yanivos100 הבעיה מתחילה כש נגמר הכסף לקנות עוד והמניה ממשיכה לצלול...אם הפסדת כמה פעמים על ה put למטה, מכירת call קרוב לא תחזיר את הכסף. זה גם מערער קצת את התזה של טווח ארוך. בהצלחה בכל מקרה!

@yanivos100 אם צללו מתחת 15$ ואתה מאמין במניה ורוצה להחזיק אותה לטווח ארוך בכל מקרה, אז האופציות שמכרת פקעו מחוץ לכסף, ותוכל לחזור על המכירה שוב ושוב. ובנוסף, נוצרת לך הזדמנות לקנות עוד במחיר נמוך יותר. איפה הבעיה?

התחלתי לשחק קצת באופציות. בחודשים האחרונים מכרתי כמה puts על חברות כמו $SOFI, $NBIS ו- $NU, במטרה ליצור תזרים כשאני מחכה למחירים טובים. הסופ"ש האופציה הראשונה מומשה, 300 מניות סופיי במחיר 17$, ועכשיו אני מתחיל בצד השני של האסטרטגיה. מחר אמכור calls בינתיים למחירים 19$, 20$, 21$ לשבועיים כנראה, בתקווה שלא יגיעו לשם ואוכל למכור עוד calls במחירים למחירים יותר גבוהים. מקווה שלא יצללו פתאום ל15$ או מתחת, אבל אני מוכן לספוג את זה ולהחזיק אפילו לשנים קדימה את המניות האלו. לא ממליץ בכלל להתעסק עם אופציות בלי להבין לעומק את המורכבות ואת הסיכונים שלהם.

@JonahLupton Why buy it when the highest quality stocks in the world are on sale now?

$NBIS just closed the gap from the $27 billion $META deal which is just insane... goes to show what kind of market we're in.... right now you can buy $NBIS cheaper than when that deal was announced 😒

@realroseceline @jarad1821 @app_hyd Half of it is SBC. How do you look at it?

@jarad1821 @app_hyd They’re going to earn over $2 (non gaap) and stock trades at $24

$TTD is attractive at $24/share 🌹

@yanivos100 I'm actually prefer $MA at this price...

The partnership between $SOFI and $MA is absolutely insane in my opinion, and it actually gives SoFiUSD a real shot at matching, or even surpassing, the growth pace of SoFi’s LPB. In essence, this deal lets any merchant who accepts Mastercard payments receive their money faster and cheaper straight into their bank account without the end customer noticing any difference at all. But the real question is, how does $SOFI actually profit from it? Not by earning interest on every single transaction, that profit goes straight to $MA. To support the SoFiUSD network, they need to keep roughly 10% of the activity in reserves at all times. Let’s say only a mere 1% of the transactions on their network shift to SoFiUSD in the short term. That’s still $100B a year, which would require around $10B in reserves. Even if interest rates drop toward 3% in the next 1–2 years, $SOFI could still generate $200M-$250M in annual profit (after taxes, costs and yield-sharing with partners/holders) from this alone, with zero additional activity on the stablecoin. That’s roughly 50% growth on top of their projected $481M net profit for 2025 (pretty conservative estimates). The only real question left: How fast will merchants actually adopt these payment solutions? And thnx to @grok for the video #SOFI #Mastercard #SoFiUSD #Fintech #Stablecoins

@elerianm @WSJ Yeah, they need to write something every day. The war will end and it will go down fast.

The @WSJ on one of the most sensitive prices across the economic, political and social landscape: “Average regular gasoline prices nationally were around $3.68 a gallon on Saturday, according to AAA, a 23% increase from before the war started at the end of February.” #economy #oil #markets #gas #affordability

@realroseceline 🫣

$UBER was already screwed but this is the ultimate kiss of death 🌹

@_Investinq Such a big project takes years to plan, develop and build. But journalists and attention hungry tweeter channels need to post something every day...

Trump's biggest AI announcement was built on sand. $500 billion, the largest AI infrastructure project in American history. 14 months later, it's unraveling. Here's what they don't want you to know: In January 2025, Trump stood at the White House with three of the most powerful men in tech.​ Sam Altman, Larry Ellison and Masayoshi Son. They called it Stargate and they promised it would secure America's AI dominance, create 100,000 jobs, and cure diseases.​ The media ate it up but behind the scenes, something was breaking. Oracle, one of the three founding partners, just scrapped plans to expand the flagship Stargate data center in Texas.​ Not some side project but the main site in Abilene, Texas. The reason? They ran out of money. Bloomberg reported Oracle is now cutting thousands of jobs across the company.​ A cash crunch from the very AI buildout they promised would change the world. Their stock has collapsed 56% from its peak and it gets worse. The moment Oracle and OpenAI walked away from the expansion, someone else walked in. Mark Zuckerberg's Meta and who brokered the deal? Nvidia. The chipmaker paid $150 million just to make sure its GPUs power whatever gets built next.​ The chip company is now deciding who gets to build AI infrastructure and where. This was supposed to be a partnership between Oracle, OpenAI, and SoftBank. Now it looks like a fire sale. Oracle says everything is fine and they put out a statement today claiming the project is "on track."​ Wall Street disagrees, jefferies slashed their price target. Analysts are warning of 20,000 to 30,000 potential job cuts. The $500 billion promise? The 10 gigawatts of AI power? No one is canceling Stargate entirely but the expansion everyone celebrated at the White House is being quietly walked back.​ The biggest AI bet in American history is now a cautionary tale about what happens when ambition outpaces capital.

@JonahLupton Did you short it?

Oil down -20% from the overnight highs, congrats to everyone that shorted it above $115

Crude oil futures now up +24.6% on the session... running into resistance at $115

@_Investinq Are you serious, probably the time frame of people commenting here is around 5 minutes. Okay, price of oil will jump for a weeks or even months, but if this war will eliminate the threat from this regime who terrorize the world for decades, I'm happy to pay more for gas.

BREAKING: The United States just told Israel "WTF." Over 30 Iranian oil depots Israel bombed on Saturday without warning Washington about the real scale. A senior official said plainly: "We don't think it was a good idea." Here's why this matters more than you think. Trump's own adviser admitted the president "doesn't like the attack" because "he wants to save the oil." Because it "reminds people of higher gas prices." Gas is already up 16% in one week and prediction markets say there's a 63% chance it blows past $4.50 by the end of March. Iran just warned keep hitting our oil, and crude goes to $200 a barrel. The Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of the world's oil passes through is effectively shut down. 150+ tankers are sitting dead in the water and the traffic is near zero. Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar have declared force majeure. They literally can't export oil anymore. Inside the White House, aides are getting screamed at to find good news. They're "looking under every rock" for ideas. And while the White House scrambles, here's Senator Lindsey Graham calling it "the best money ever spent." The Pentagon asking for $50 billion and a senator on live TV saying it's a bargain. Israel went rogue on the one thing Trump cares about most, the price at the pump. And nobody in Washington can even agree on whether this was a good idea. I’ll keep monitoring this and post an update later, and make sure to turn on notifications. A lot of people are going to wish they were paying attention earlier.

@BourbonCap Sounds like a win-win deal. Great for both companies if Hims won't start their dirty activity again..

$NVO and $HIMS settled $HIMS is up 40%+ after hours

@CaptMarkKelly Little stupid person

Trump ripped up the Iran nuclear deal and created this mess. Now, he's putting servicemembers in harm's way with no clear plan and no Congressional approval. The American people deserve answers — and Congress needs to do its job.

@realroseceline Even if one believes in their story, the stock is still very expensive. PEG around 2. After recent declines, there are way better opportunities.

Thoughts on $TTD $TTD fell 16% after they reported and the immediate reaction is that it’s toast. That is usually how the market behaves when expectations are not met, and perhaps deservingly so. The quarter itself was not bad per se. Revenue was $847m, up 14% and slightly ahead of estimates. EPS was $0.59 and net income was $187m. For the full year they did $2.9b in revenue, up 18%, with $1.2b in EBITDA at a 41% margin which is very impressive margin. This is still a very profitable, capital light business. But margins declined, the Q4 net margin decreased from 25% to 22%. Full year from 16% to 15%. Stock based compensation was $491m, which is too much! The economics are still strong, but they are not expanding the way investors had become accustomed to for many years. Guidance is what really changed the mood. Q1 revenue is expected to be at “least $678m” with about $195m in adjusted EBITDA. That means a slower start to the year and some margin compression. No full year guide adds further uncertainty, and as we already know markets do not like uncertainty. This is exactly what I talk about often. Businesses are not priced on growth alone. If that were true, investing would be simple. You would screen for revenue growth and become rich. What drives valuation is not how fast revenue grows, but how profitable that growth is, how durable those returns are, and how much do those future returns cost today to produce in the future. It is not the growth that matters, it is the economics of the growth. How much incremental profit comes from the next dollar of revenue. Whether margins are expanding or contracting. Whether returns on capital are increasing or decreasing. That is far harder to assess than simply saying revenue grew 18%. A 16% decline in a stock does not mean intrinsic value fell 16%. It means expectations about the future margin profile and growth are reset. $TTD is an operating leverage business by nature. When growth is strong, margins expand meaningfully. When growth slows, they compress. That makes the multiple sensitive. Investors are not just paying for today’s earnings. They are paying for what those margins look like three to five years out. They repurchased $1.4b of stock, some of it around $50. In hindsight that capital allocation looks terrible, although at today’s levels the buyback feels far more rational. Capital allocation is gigantic part of the investment case, whether people want to acknowledge it or not. Zoom out and the bigger picture still matters. The advertising market is enormous and connected TV is still early. If you are allocating dollars across the open internet at scale, $TTD remains one of the primary platforms. The model is capital light, scalable, and capable of generating substantial cash over time. Yes, there is some deterioration at the margin, but the core business has not disappeared (yet). We’ll need to watch and see if managment can reaccelerate growth in the upcoming quarters and equally important at what cost? 🌹

@yanivos100 זה נכון. אני רק רוצה להוסיף שאדם ממוצע לא מסוגל להבדיל בין מניה זולה למניה יקרה בתחפושת של זולה (למשל בגלל SBC, חפיר שנשחק וכו). מניות זולות באמת שיש להן תשואה יפה על תזרים מזומנים אמיתי, השוק מהסס לזרוק

אמ;לק - לא לזגזג בין אסטרטגיות. הפחד בשוק מתחילת השנה מביא איתו את ההמלצות הקבועות. מצד אחד המלצות על הזדמנויות לקנות בזול, מצד שני המלצות על להתרחק מסכינים נופלות. שתי ההמלצות מרגישות סותרות, בהרבה מקרים הן לגמרי סותרות, ובסוף הן לא עוזרות בכלל לבלבול של האדם הממוצע. אבל זה רק בגלל שהאדם הממוצע לרוב לא סגור על האסטרטגיה שלו, על טווחי הזמן שלו ועל הסיכון שכרוח בהם. תיקונים כאלו הם זמן מעולה להבין אם האסטרטגיה שלנו מתאימה לנו, ואם אנחנו מאמינים בה מספיק בשביל לספוג את הסיכונים. הדבר הכי מסוכן (אחרי להמר על הון משמעותי עם מינוף) הוא לרדוף ולזגזג. זו הדרך הכי בטוחה להפסיד לאט לאט לאורך זמן.

@NickTimiraos In most of the developed countries you should provide citizenship info...

The Trump administration is weighing an executive order or other action that would require banks to collect citizenship information from customers Discussions about the potential order have alarmed banks wsj.com/politics/polic…

@realroseceline I bought it recently in the 40s (before the last drop). I thought you're a LT investor but if your horizon is days or weeks, you're right, I lost money there.

@AGprotrader Yes that correct, btw how much money have you made investing in nvo?

I would rather “overpay” for $LLY than own $NVO. I don’t think $NVO business is great nor cheap. I called $PYPL a value trap, and now I am calling $NVO a value trap. 🌹 bearish $NVO.