Thin Float

Wall Street is pricing insurance brokers like they have permanent moats. They don’t. Here’s what nobody on FinTwit is talking about: AI is about to compress the entire insurance advisory layer. The broker’s edge has always been information asymmetry. They know the carriers, the appetite tables, the pricing tiers. You don’t. So you pay them commission to navigate complexity. But AI flattens that overnight. When any MGA can spin up an underwriting model in weeks instead of years, when $LMND is growing revenue 40% YoY ($738M in FY2025, still burning $165M), when an AI agent can parse every carrier’s appetite in seconds… what exactly is the broker selling? The biggest names in the space: $AON (18.7x P/E, $69B) $MMC (22.0x P/E, $90B) $AJG (37.4x P/E, $56B) $WTW (17.0x P/E, $27B) $BRO (21.3x P/E, $22B) Combined market cap: $264B. Built on a model where complexity = margin. AI destroys complexity. The bull case is “relationships matter.” Sure. But relationships don’t survive a 40% price difference when the client’s CFO can see it on a screen. Nobody is modeling this. Not the sell side. Not management teams. Not the analysts on earnings calls. That silence is the signal.

Alphabet turned $3.9B into $180B. Both positions IPO this year. Nobody is pricing it in. $GOOGL trades at 12x earnings. The cheapest mega-cap in tech. The “AI kills Google” crowd accidentally gave you the cheapest entry into the two biggest IPOs of the decade. You don’t need an allocation. You just need to buy $GOOGL.

$RNR is the name everyone knows in reinsurance. $ACGL is the one that actually compounds harder. +144% vs +81% over 5 years. ACGL has never posted a loss year. Not during Irma. Not during Ida. Not during Ian. 0.11x debt-to-equity. $24B in equity. Zero drama. RNR had 3 loss years in the same window. Quality shows up in the chart.

$WM is everyone’s favorite waste stock. Here’s what nobody wants to talk about. They spent $7.7 billion acquiring Stericycle in 2024. Financed almost entirely with debt. The balance sheet before the deal: $16B total debt. After: $23B. Interest expense went from $500M to $912M in two years. Cash on hand? $201 million. Against $23 billion in debt. That’s a 0.9% cash-to-debt ratio. On the “safest sector in the market.” Goodwill jumped $4.6 billion overnight. $13.9B now sits on the balance sheet. That’s management telling you they paid $4.6 billion more than the assets were worth. Gross margin? 29.1%. Lowest among its peers. Waste Connections runs a 39% gross margin on a smaller, more disciplined operation. Everyone loves WM because it’s big. $25B in revenue. Most institutional ownership. Most analyst coverage. Most name recognition. But big is not the same as good. The Stericycle deal loaded up the balance sheet with debt and goodwill in exchange for a medical waste business that was already dealing with EPA compliance issues before the ink dried. $RSG runs tighter margins. $WCN runs better pricing. $CLH owns permits nobody can replicate. All three have cleaner balance sheets. Sometimes the most popular name in a sector is the worst place to park your capital.

$CLH - Clean Harbors nobody talks about this stock. That’s the point. They own the largest network of hazardous waste incinerators in North America. The EPA stopped issuing new incineration permits decades ago. NIMBY guarantees that never changes. Chemical plant needs to dispose of toxic waste? They call CLH. There is no second option. The permits are the business. It’s a toll road for poison. Record $6B in revenue last year. $509M in free cash flow. 19.7% compounded annually over the last decade vs 12.3% for the S&P. No dividend. Every dollar goes into buybacks and bolt-ons. Their Safety-Kleen subsidiary collects used oil from 100K+ auto shops, re-refines it into base oil, then sells it back to the same customers. They were doing circular economy before anyone had a name for it. Same moat structure as ISRG, WST, HEI. A regulator built the wall. Recurring revenue stacks on top. Nobody can replicate it. $15B market cap. 40x earnings. Not cheap. But there is no second Clean Harbors. When this pulls back 30%+ you buy it and forget about it.

@TheProfInvestor I can see us going lower. Generational wealth was at $70

$META Generational wealth plan If it drops to 490- I will add If it drops to 350- I will triple down These are Generational dips and easiest multi baggers come when you buy Strong companies at deep discounts. Remember the plan Save this post.

@Liathetrader I see wave B higher, only slightly though

$SPX the longer the war goes on, the higher the probability of this playing out with a Wave C and a lower low. The market does not like uncertainty.. Support at $6486 and $6380.

@SayNoToTrading @HolySmokas Honestly I don’t feel like the R/R is there for Nike

Depends if you want to stay in $NKE or not. If not, tax loss but I personally wouldn’t be in rush to take it. Maybe just do partial tax loss, perhaps 10-15% sold each month for a few months. If staying in, could double down and sell original in 31 days and still get tax loss. Though, risk further downside. Might be $36 when you sell original + you have new shares at $43 so now even more losses. Personally I am undecided on Nike and am in no rush to decide.

What should I do?

@SayNoToTrading When looking at CAGR how are you looking at it over 10 years? Pre and post Covid? Doesn’t the post Covid boom skew it?

I forgot which hedge fund it was, maybe Shaughnessy, but there is a long-format hour-long interview which brings up $ENSG that tipped me over the line to finally buy a couple years ago. But it's not much. $VTR $WELL not peers and when people talk about their 30 years CAGRs, it all comes from years 1-20. 2015 onward have been disasters.

@SayNoToTrading you own $ENSG and peers?

@SayNoToTrading Correct somewhat of a monopoly. Business model reminds me of $HEI

@ThinFloat I don’t believe $ENSG has any true public peers.

@FalkTG Doesn’t Germany 🇩🇪 have a very high tax rate?

Average salary: - 🇺🇸 NYC 80.000€ - 🇩🇪 Frankfurt 60.000€ - 🇬🇧 London 52.000€ - 🇫🇷 Paris 51.000€ Average rent: - 🇺🇸 NYC 42.000€ - 🇩🇪 Frankfurt 14.400€ - 🇬🇧 London 38.000€ - 🇫🇷 Paris 21.600€ Net: - 🇺🇸 NYC 38.000€ 🥈 - 🇩🇪 Frankfurt 45.600€ 🥇 - 🇬🇧 London 14.000€ 🏚️ - 🇫🇷 Paris 29.000€ Yeah SoHo is funny. But every investmentbanker who is smart moves to Frankfurt.

@Mr_Derivatives Lower much lower

$AMZN under both the 50dma and 200dma still $META under both the 50dma and 200dma still $MSFT under both the 50dma and 200dma still $NVDA under both the 50dma and 200dma still $TSLA under both the 50dma and 200dma still $AAPL under the 50dma but above the 200dma $GOOG under the 50dma but above the 200dma All made progress last three days. But still need moar...

@e_commerce_king $MELI is 10x better

One of the core differences of $SE and $MELI management team is that : $SE is a lot more engineer & founder lead. $MELI is more financial and consultant lead.

@MichaelPBento Long Yen is the play?

While everyone is distracted by the gyrations of oil and SPY, the 10-Year JGB just made a new high to a level not seen in over 30 years. Japan's economy is on the precipice, and the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed is going to break it. Global markets are intertwined, so if Japan breaks then it will have contagion effect on us. I don't make the rules that's just the way it is.

@cs2024usa IMHO too early. Boots on ground this weekend will send oil much higher

Doubling my oil short on a double top $SCO

@griffonomics @SayNoToTrading Yes that’s the one! When are you releasing? Lol

@SayNoToTrading @ThinFloat I can get behind airport infrastructure. Let’s check it out!

@SayNoToTrading have you looked into $FER ?