KareI Ceptiel

@KarelCapital I will be sharing my latest investment strategies for free on WhatsApp. Welcome to join! ✅ Copy and search for "2026" and reply to WhatsApp: +17404089312 ➡️Link here: api.whatsapp.com/send?phone=174…

@KarelCapital My next Strategy ⬇️

Thin film lithium niobate (TFLN) is the material that makes co-packaged optics (CPO) actually work at scale. Silicon photonics moves data fast. TFLN moves it fast AND at low power AND low insertion loss. That combination is why hyperscalers need it for 1.6T and 3.2T interconnects inside next-gen AI cluster buildouts. The ramp is 2026-2027. Supply is extremely tight. TFLN wafer production is currently dominated by a Chinese manufacturer. That changes this year. If you want exposure to the TFLN ramp for CPO and AI, these are the options I found: $GHH (Gooch & Housego, LSE) — ~$250M MC — EV/Sales ~1.3x ← best risk/reward here in my opinion. This is the one. G&H was selected by Raytheon under a US Air Force Research Laboratory contract to establish a domestic TFLN wafer supply chain, with their Cleveland, Ohio facility serving as the production site as the program moves into low-rate initial production. $GHH already confirmed plans to expand capacity for commercial customers. Raytheon's Advanced Technology team develops the ion-slicing process, then production transitions to G&H. $196M TTM revenue, profitable, EV/Sales ~1.3x. You are paying almost nothing for what is now the designated US-domestic TFLN merchant supplier. The Raytheon/AFRL contract alone de-risks the whole thesis. $QUBT (Quantum Computing Inc) — ~$1.65B MC — EV/Sales N/M (pre-revenue) US company with a 150mm TFLN fab capable of wafer-level manufacturing. They fab the actual TFLN chips and signed a deal with $POET to co-develop 3.2Tbps optical engines. High risk given pre-revenue status and quantum business but the US-domestic angle matters given supply chain pressure from China. $POET (POET Technologies) — ~$950M MC — EV/Sales N/M (pre-revenue) The integration layer. Their Optical Interposer platform packages lasers, modulators, and drivers into a single chip-scale assembly using QUBT's TFLN modulators. Targeting 400G/lane 3.2T optical engines for CPO, production H2 2026. Pre-revenue so obviously a risky play. $NGKIF (NGK Insulators, TYO: 5333) — ~$7.2B MC — EV/Sales ~1.5x The Japanese giant nobody in the west is talking about. Makes TFLN bonded wafers for optical modulation in data centers and core networks using proprietary direct-bonding and precision-polishing tech. $OXIDF (Oxide Corporation, TYO: 6521) — ~$395M MC — EV/Sales ~7x Pure-play Japanese optical crystal company. Makes lithium niobate crystals foundational to TFLN-based photonic integrated circuits. Revenue ~$58M TTM, growing ~27% y/y. Small and high risk name here but still a pure-play on the TFLN materials layer. In my opinion, $GHH is the obvious best pick here in terms of asymmetric upside. Undiscovered, nobody knows about the potential here. The Trump administration has shown that they care about US manufacturing. $GHH $QUBT and $POET would be the best picks here. Everyone in photonics already knows about $POET, it is not a bargain anymore. $QUBT is already at 1.5B market cap thanks to the quantum hype of 2025. $GHH has a partnership with Raytheon for the US Air Force. At ~$250M market cap, you are buying a profitable and growing business with great defence exposure during a defence supercycle where the TFLN partnership is not priced in at all. This effectively gives you a risk-free call option on TFLN exposure while enjoying the other business segments providing a hard floor. So, if you want US exposure to TFLN, your picks are: -a 1.6B expensive quantum company -a 950M$ pre revenue photonics company that everyone knows -a $250M profitable, growing defence company Seems like an obvious choice to me. NFA.

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