Faster Than Expected

@EliotJacobson I lean towards real record since multiple lines of evidence point to el nino transition beginning right now. I haven't noticed any major corrections to preliminary values in recent months.

SST data is preliminary for 2 weeks, but now we know new daily SST records were set on March 17th & 18th. On the other hand, is the latest record just a ghost from preliminary SST data, or is something truly f&%ked happening? We'll have to wait 2 weeks to know. Stay tuned!

The Nino index (Nino3.4) has just reached Nino-neutral, but global SST (sea surface temperature) has matched the highest level for this date, which was achieved during the last El Nino. Super warming is clear. Look for a global temperature soon of at least +1.7C, even if the "Super" El Nino turns out to be half-baked. The University of Maine Climate Change Institute has a spectacular interactive graphic that they update daily. It is a valuable research and communications tool. Link to graph: climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily…

@LeonSimons8 @IMOHQ Hey Leon, have you begun to think what the closure of the strait of hormuz will mean for near term aerosol loading of the atmosphere? Of course it is complicated by the fact biomass burning and coal could increase to offset energy scarcity, but this could have a real impact.

If it smells like an aerosol termination shock, if it looks like an aerosol termination shock, and if it feels like an aerosol termination shock, it's probably an aerosol termination shock! Total sulphate and percentage of total sulphate from shipping prior to @IMOHQ regulations on sulphur content of fuels: Decreased sulphur from global shipping and increased regional sunlight absorption: Area and Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies: Surface Air Temperature Anomalies over the same region:

With the Arctic seasonal melt well under way, there was a new record low sea-ice maximum this year. This year's maximum beat the previous record low maximum, set just last year, by about 26,000 square kilometers.

@TheGlobalWarmer @ryankatzrosene Exactly, the heat in the US is more anomalous using standardized anomalies.

@ryankatzrosene More variability there though. Would be interesting to see the anomalies presented as a standard deviation from the norms.

It’s actually more anomalously warm in northeastern Siberia today than it is in the Western US

Breaking News! Code UFB!!! January, 2026, data just came in from CERES, and the 36-month running average for the Earth albedo (reflectivity) just hit another new record low. This is mainly due to the loss of low-level cloud cover and decreasing snow/ice. Yikes too!

🌊🌡📈 BREAKING 🚨 March 18 shows a new daily record high global Sea Surface Temperature. Without an El Niño. The next two years will be something to behold. Unprecedented for hundreds of thousands of years!

@EliotJacobson Don't worry about the accelerating increase in evapotransporation, I'm sure it won't impact all life on earth...

Breaking News! Code UFB!!! The February, 2026, data for total column precipitable water was just released by ECMWF, and once again a new record high was set for the 36-month running mean. The Climate 8-Ball says: "Even more car soup!"

@LeonSimons8 @EliotJacobson nah, we need another 15 years of data and 1000 statistical tests until we can be confident enough....

@EliotJacobson Does anyone see an acceleration?

About half of the world's human population lives in the Northern mid-latitudes (30N - 60N). That region also set a new record high for total column precipitable water (36-month running mean) in February, 2026.

“Super El Niño” for late summer and fall? That’s the latest European seasonal model forecast that came out today. It’s not holding back! The average forecast is for +2°C or higher sea surface temp anomalies over the Pacific El Niño region. That’s big! In fact it could put the upcoming El Niño in top 3 status on record. But, I caution, it’s early as we need to get past the spring predictability barrier which means large uncertainty. But if it happens, then what does this mean? To simplify , because space is tight, it typically means suppressed activity in Atlantic hurricane season (that doesn’t mean there won’t be landfalls but there are typically less). It also means huge heat will be lofted into the atmosphere, (which has been stored in the subsurface Pacific during cool La Nina) that would mean Earth likely sets new all-time heat records in late 2026-27 -and- it will super charge heat waves and storms/ flooding next fall/ winter (non tropical).

@EliotJacobson Every day we are more fucked than the last

Normalcy bias in action. Overall, folks think we are slightly less f&%ked today than we were a year ago...

My 2 week old extrapolation is already starting to look optimistic.. Note: "Even if there is uncertainty … that is a reason to take it even more seriously," "Because if there is uncertainty, we might also be underestimating what's happening." As I told @NebulousNikki in 2023:

@EliotJacobson @baltic_ra December 2025 had a record breaking energy imbalance. Climate change is still accelerating, and it is looking more likely that the linear projection from Hansen will be conservative. My opinion is cloud feedback is strongly positive and climate sensitivity is very high (>4.5).

@baltic_ra Not sure. But certainly the transition out of La Nina is part of it.

Breaking News! Code Yikes! In case you haven't been paying attention, global sea-surface temperatures have been spiking for the last week and may soon set a new all-time record. Massively overheated oceans are not healthy for children and other living things.

@EliotJacobson Great googly moogly

Global sea-surface temperatures are having a moment:

The monthly climatology-corrected Earth's Energy Imbalance was record high in December 2025, at +2.57 W/m²!

@ryankatzrosene It doesn't look like this chart uses RONI? It would be interesting to see this with a more accurate measure of ENSO.

Global monthly temperature anomalies, with ENSO status... Next El Niño will be... interesting.

@EliotJacobson ERA5 sst update: 2026 rises to second place, surpassing 2025. Surely NOAA OISST will follow suit soon as the La Nina fades. Hot times ahead.

Hey everybody! It's mid-month global mean surface temperature snapshot time! And yes, that's right, do not adjust your television: at the height of the current La Nina, 2026 year-to-date is more than 1.51°C over the pre-industrial baseline.

@EliotJacobson It's going to be pretty awkward for Zeke and Mann if it turns out Hansen et al. actually underestimated the current rate of warming.

Breaking News! Code Yikes! In the depths of La Nina the planet is still breaking temperature records: January 6th was the hottest on record for the date since 1940, at 1.65°C over the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline. The next El Nino is going to be interesting.