اصلاح طلبکاران

علی الظاهر پاسخ مناسب به انهدام شاهد ۱۳۹ داده شده است

There are approximately 250 combat aircraft available to attack Iran. This is about 11% of what the US attacked Iraq with in 1991 and 31-35% of combat aircraft used in the 2003 invasion of Iraq. In addition to the chart there are approximately 80 F-18s & F-35s that are aboard the Ford & Lincoln, plus other supporting electronic warfare, command and control & refueling aircraft. B-1s, B-2s & B-52s will be based out of Diego Garcia, Guam or the US. In comparison, in 1991, the US & allied forces had approximately 2250 combat aircraft, with 1,800 of them US. In 2003, the US invaded Iraq with between 700-800 combat aircraft, plus hundreds of supporting aircraft. Technology has advanced and the US is able to carry out more strikes using missiles & bombs with longer ranges & accuracy than 35 & 23 years ago. However, in 1991 & 2003, the US was not dealing with an enemy with ballistic missile & drone capabilities anything near what Iran has (the Scud missiles were exaggerated & though did cause casualties were never the threat Iran’s missiles & drones are). Additionally, the US in both wars went to war with considerable allied support. Now the US will have only support from Israel & some defensive support from countries like Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain & Qatar that should be expected to provide missiles & fighters to shoot down Iranian missiles & drones as Jordan did last year. Plus, the passive support from hosting US air bases including some logistics support. Israel’s air force will be dedicated to defense of Israel from Iran’s missiles and drones, while continuing air strikes in Lebanon, Gaza, Syria &, conceivably, Yemen. Israel would likely take part in attacks on Iran with its aircraft, primarily with air launched ballistic missiles, but I am skeptical as to the amount of coordination with US commanders and planners in those attacks. The biggest asset to the US & Israel now compared to Iraq wars is the intelligence, sabotage & operations resources available within Iran to the CIA & Mossad. Whether those covert and clandestine actions can be incorporated with any popular uprisings is unknown. Events in early January of Iranians taking to the streets may not reappear if Iran is being bombed by the US and Israel. The aspiration for the US and Israel is for mass demonstrations to be turned into sectarian violence and uprisings that would lead to regime change or, second best to US and Israel, to mass instability, societal fractures, loss of government control and civil war. If DC and Tel Aviv can’t get regime change, turning Iran into Syria or Libya is good enough for them. But back to the airpower present, the number of combat planes available, while significant, is no where near the numbers used in 1991 and 2003. Yes, technology is better, but regardless the principles of war still apply (tell it to Rumsfeld’s ghost if you don’t believe me). Iran is geographically 4x larger than Iraq, has prepared for war with the US for decades, in a manner Iraq never did, and has had support from Russia and China over the last decade and particularly the last several years (Russia and China will not take part). The US, while not attacking Iran with ground forces, like Iraq in 91 and 03, & so has no need to provide air support to ground forces, will be limited in its ability to sustain combat operations as days turn into weeks. This means perhaps ~ a week of intense air attacks that settles into a sustained but limited campaign of air, missile and drone strikes the US can sustain for weeks or months. Continual bombing would be meant to erode Iranian state control steadily by keeping Iranian leadership underground (or dead), prioritizing targeting Iranian ballistic missile launchers and air defense systems, hitting key civil infrastructure to cause harm to the public, such as energy and communications, and supporting anti-government forces. It will be a war the US attempts to manage by spreadsheet. Tell that to McNamara’s ghost.