Asad
8.5K posts

Asad
@AMobin
So Chi // Finance @Affirm // Chi Photographer //
Chicago, IL Katılım Haziran 2009
516 Takip Edilen300 Takipçiler

@amitisinvesting Don’t forget that Bezos and his ex-wife have been net sellers for years now. Puts constant pressure on the stock
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$AMZN
alright folks…
Amazon is officially the worst performing Mag 7, up 1% YTD
hard to imagine we end the year with S&P around 6800-6900 and $AMZN stays flat
two reasons I think its down:
1.) tariffs actually effect their commerce business, we saw that with operating margins down for the first time in 5 Qs, slight decline but it did go down
2.) AWS is not as exciting as Azure and GCP’s growth rate…that sounds ridiculous but analysts don’t love that AWS isn’t growing as fast anymore
i think both of these issues are not actual reasons the stock stays flat and can easily be revised by MGMT, especially if they show any level of growth we’ve seen from companies like $ORCL and $AVGO in regards to cloud
took a starter today, 100 shares
what are we thinking about $AMZN?

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@Mr_Derivatives Name has gone no where since the 2021 highs. Up 20% on 4 years while its peers are up 100+%
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If you are heavily bullish the stock market, then you gotta be long $AMZN into eoy.
Name has gone nowhere all year at a measly flat ytd.
I said $AAPL would flip green when it was still down 15% ytd.
I said $TSLA would flip green when it was down -20% ytd.
Amazon is a no brainer at these levels.
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Asad retweetledi

@ericjackson does @rabois want to be back at $OPEN? We all agree he’d add tremendous value
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I did some research. I think David Corns may have quietly left Opendoor.
Notice the dates. May 2025 to September 2025.
Something is brewing at @Opendoor 👀
@ericjackson @rabois
$OPEN

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Asad retweetledi

$AFRM
Affirm GAAP EPS of $0.20 beats by $0.09, revenue of $876.42M beats by $39.37M
Aug. 28, 2025
Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.20 beats by $0.09.
Revenue of $876.42M (+33.0% Y/Y) beats by $39.37M.
Affirm Holdings issues strong FY2026 guidance after delivering Q4 earnings, revenue beat
Aug. 28, 2025
stock climbed 9.6% in Thursday after-hours trading after the company's gross merchandise volume logged strong gains in fiscal Q4, helping to deliver an earnings and revenue beat. With that momentum, it issued solid guidance for FY2026 and Q1.
The buy now, pay later lending platform expects FY2026 gross merchandise volume of more than $46B (Visible Alpha consensus $45.7B). Its outlook for full-year revenue is 8.4% of GMV, or $3.86B ($3.89B consensus). Adjusted operating margin is seen at more than 26.1% vs. 24.1% in FY 2025.
Affirm (NASDAQ:AFRM) expects Q1 revenue of $855M-$885M vs. $858.4M consensus; and GMV of $10.1B-$10.4B vs. Visible Alpha estimate of $9.83B. Adjusted operating margin is expected to be 23%-25% vs. 27.0% in Q4 2025.
Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.20, topping the average analyst estimate of $0.11, climbed from $0.01 in Q3 and -$0.14 in last year’s Q4.
Total net revenue of $876.4M for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, beating the $837.1M consensus, increased from $783.1M in the prior quarter and $659.2M in the year-ago period.
GMV volume climbed to $10.4B from $8.6B in Q3 and $7.2B in last year’s Q4, exceeding the $9.64B Visible Alpha consensus. The Y/Y growth was driven by the strength with its largest merchant partners, 0% APR monthly installment loans, and the direct-to-consumer business, including Affirm Card.
Q4 Affirm (NASDAQ:AFRM) Card attach rate reached 10%. Card GMV more than doubled to $1.2B, and active cardholders jumped surged 97% to 2.3M, the company said.
The number of active consumers, excluding the discontinued Returnly business, rose 24% Y/Y to 23.0M at June 30, 2025.
Adjusted operating margin was 27.0% vs. 22.2% in the prior quarter and 22.7% a year ago.
Funding capacity grew to $26.1B at June, 30, 025, from $23.3B at March 31.
"In FY’25, we executed relentlessly on the three core ingredients of our strategy: grow reach by building out a first-class merchant network (377K active, +24% in FY’25), increase transaction frequency (+20% during the same period) through direct-to-consumer products, and maintain strong unit economics by prioritizing excellent credit performance (4.0% RLTC for FY’25)," said Affirm (NASDAQ:AFRM) Founder and CEO Max Levchin. "This consistent execution led Affirm to achieve operating income profitability in FQ4’25 – right on the schedule we committed to a year ago."

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@ericjackson @rabois Assuming this will happen. Keith stepped down from $AFRM board of directors in June
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The next most important move for $OPEN shareholders is NOT hiring a CEO.
It’s appointing @rabois to the board and effectively letting HIM appoint a CEO.
He can chat with the other directors but Keith WILL pick someone who will take this company to $82 —> $200 —> $500
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15 DIRECT BENEFICIARIES FROM AN AGGRESSIVE FED
1. $HOOD -- when rates collapse, liquidity has to go somewhere & history shows the first stop for retail speculation is here.
2. $SOFI -- a lower cost of capital changes everything for a digital bank scaling lending, investing & deposits all under one roof.
3. $COIN -- every easing cycle has coincided with a crypto bull market, and Coinbase is the toll collector on that activity.
4. $PGY -- easy money drives more consumer borrowing & every incremental loan flowing through Pagaya’s AI models compounds transaction volume.
5. $OPEN -- housing affordability is a direct derivative of rates & aggressive Fed cuts reset their model from survival mode back to scale.
6. $RKLB -- launch cadence & space infrastructure expansion require patient capital & a dovish Fed reopens that runway.
7. $ASTS -- satellite-to-cell is one of the most capital-intensive visions in markets & looser financial conditions accelerates execution.
8. $EOSE -- grid instability & rising AI-driven demand make long-duration storage inevitable & aggressive easing accelerates the capital commitments to scale it.
9. $OKLO -- compact fission is a strategic priority for energy security & an aggressive Fed shortens the runway for getting micro-reactors from concept to deployment.
10. $NBIS -- sovereign AI cloud is elastic capex at global scale & liquidity waves create the appetite to fund those “AI factory” buildouts.
11. $UPST -- traditional credit tightens in high-rate regimes, but an aggressive Fed reopens lending markets & gives Upstart’s AI underwriting room to scale.
12. $CRCL -- stablecoins sit at the center of global liquidity & easier Fed policy accelerates adoption of Circle’s dollar rails.
13. $MSTR -- essentially a levered bet on Bitcoin $BTC & in a liquidity wave its equity usually outruns the underlying asset.
14. $IONQ -- quantum will take years to scale, but looser policy pulls that future forward & gives IonQ the capital to keep pushing towards building quantum network.
15. $BMNR -- ethereum $ETH treasury exposure that scales with staking yield and network demand when liquidity returns.

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@APompliano Business in its current form is trash. People just trying to make a 10 bagger
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