John Spitzer
25K posts
@ASX1500
Former Divisional Director FX at Macquarie a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away. Oz property halves. ASX goes to 1500.
25% down in pretty much any asset and it’s still very expensive. Let’s see what Bitcoin 75,000 does to this circus.
A -30% correction would take out majority of property investors especially as mum & dad have guaranteed family purchases. Few understand-50% is coming. Complacency is very high thinking intervention will save them.
At some point folks will realise inflation’s heading to 6%, cash rate to 5%+, and unemployment will surge producing the first national property price correction in a generation
GLD monthly fund flows
SPOT GOLD EXTENDS LOSSES, LAST DOWN OVER 2% AT $4,715.80/OZ
RBA May hike now priced a slither under 80%
The cash rate is 4.10% and the curve has (almost) 3 more hikes priced in for this year. The previous cycle high was 4.35%. If the market is right, this will be only the second time in 26 years that the cash rate has risen above the previous cycle peak. Higher highs, higher lows?
Sydney final auction results: Week ending 15 March, 2026 @SQMResearch The final clearance rate was 42.5% from 1,399 scheduled auctions. Preceding week - 43.6% from 1,372 auctions. Same week, last year - 48.7% from 1,264 auctions. This week sees 1,392 auctions for Sydney. sqmresearch.com.au/property/aucti… #housingmarket
Our interest rates are soaring through the roof, Aussie bond yields breaking out higher. Many readers didn’t understand my comment “Aussie Dollar is going to crash” in that context. If you understand to what lengths our government will go to protect the realestate ponzi bubble, you’ll understand what I mean. Yes, in normal conditions higher rates attract more demand for the AUD. These are less than ideal conditions- we’re on the brink of most families not being able to afford their homes with most mums AND dads working 9-5 jobs to support their family. Most income goes into paying off the mortgage. Nobody wants to live out west if they can avoid it, where it’s just roads and rectangle boxes built en mass. Even still, it’s not even cheap out there. $1.5-$1.8m won’t get you much. Now as rates are forced up, as soon as our house prices slip the government will need to intervene and print billions of dollars to artificially control and lower rates in short term markets. 1 and 2 year. This will inevitably send 10 year yields even higher but severely dilute the Aussie dollar. And thus, I believe strength in the AUD is short lived as the reckoning approaches.
