Scott Phillips

Tweeting about a range of stuff - and not following an arbitrary 'party line' on anything - means I end up with followers who might be disappointed that I'm not a cheerleader for 'their team' (regardless of the topic). So, thanks for following, but consider yourselves warned :)

So, The One-Page Investing Plan is being outsold by The Very Hungry Caterpillar... ... and I think that's probably how it should be. Though if you don't like caterpillars, buying my book would send them a message. (Insert clunky investment-butterfly metaphor here.) :) #TOPIP

@SnapBackAU Yep. The public square might be a little worse for wear, but constructive debate is important.

@TMFScottP Our job?

On the PRRT / Gas Tax thing: The current system is an oil and gas company charity. It's ridiculous. But also, I don't agree with a 25% tax on gas, because they're making windfall profits. We need to fix it *properly*. How? Read on:

@GeoffWilsonWAM @igordownunder @ryu_tay @PeteWargent Hmm... not sure I agree, mate. I've not seen any evidence that the change from indexation to the 50% discount in 1999 unleashed any great surge of entrepreneurialism? I suspect the impact, if any, is immaterial.

@TMFScottP @igordownunder @ryu_tay @PeteWargent It will be a disaster for any entrepreneurial Australian as they will not set up new companies in Australia. They will leave and establish companies elsewhere

grandfathering the 50% discount for existing investments and moving to indexation from set day (July 1st? May 12ve?) is not a bad solution.... thoughts? better than "forever" grandfather. @ryu_tay @TMFScottP @PeteWargent

@SnapBackAU In part. Thing is, the current PRRT exists. Not taking action is still action. Our job is to find the least worst outcome either way.

@TMFScottP Isn’t that how we got into the NDIS mess? Lol

@funfriar101 @Abject_Fail @igordownunder @ryu_tay @PeteWargent From first principles, I don't think you'd create this current CGT structure, relative to other forms of income. And there's zero evidence that the change in 1999 led to any material change, so the reversion is likely the same, IMO.

@TMFScottP @Abject_Fail @igordownunder @ryu_tay @PeteWargent I guess my issue is 1) AU needs productivity growth - we need to encourage risk capital 2) this change doesn't help housing, if anything it hurts higher risk assets and protects housing on the relative 3) ultimately a wealth tax - where is the redistribution (to be seen i guess)?

@SnapBackAU No-one knows the future. The best we can do is a beat guess.

@TMFScottP Is there someone with the expertise to devise a scheme whereby the maximum amount of revenue is raised without harming current/future investment? Sure be nice to learn the identity of such an expert.

@funfriar101 @Abject_Fail @igordownunder @ryu_tay @PeteWargent 2. Probably, depending on; a) The likely return; and b) The future inflation rate I don't reckon the tax should be a gamble on inflation, and I don't reckon capital gains should be taxed more lightly than earned income from a fairness perspective.

@funfriar101 @Abject_Fail @igordownunder @ryu_tay @PeteWargent 1. 'Hurt' relative to now, yes. But any tax hurts more than no tax, obviously, so the question is whether the tax burden is reasonable relative to other income forms, IMO.

@SnapBackAU Yep.

@TMFScottP So higher than now but less than Norway? Lol

@tobyeggleston The full report? No.

@TMFScottP Have you even read the report?

Even if the oil and gas tax structure was well-designed (it's not), here's the key fault: Australia only gets paid for *our* resources, if the company makes a profit. If it doesn't, we've given the oil and gas away *free*? In what sane world does that make sense?

@funfriar101 @Abject_Fail @igordownunder @ryu_tay @PeteWargent I don't think CGT changes will do much for affordability, tbh. There was never any policy justification for the discount replacing indexation, and the return to indexation would be appropriate for all assets, IMO.

@TMFScottP @Abject_Fail @igordownunder @ryu_tay @PeteWargent did you have a view re. whether the CGT discount cut should target all assets vs. just property?

@EnergyWrapAU Correct.

@TMFScottP And it’s not always pure cash that’s in national interest.

@EnergyWrapAU And to set appropriate royalty rates that are in the national interest.

@TMFScottP Sure. And part of the government’s job is to have productive industries, self sufficiency, energy security, employment opportunities… It’s also governments job to manage a stable economy and not act like activists.

@SnapBackAU They would be yes. But we get 100% of the royalty, but only 30% of the profit.

@TMFScottP Aren’t royalties generally treated as tax deductible business expenses?

@AusThinkingGirl You asked whether there's evidence of higher tax rates delivering more revenue. The answer is the one I gave.

@TMFScottP Are you serious? You need to point to a comparable tax. Not a budget benefiting from the inflation generated by the government.

@SnapBackAU I know the limits of my expertise - I don't pretend to be able to determine that from the outside.

@TMFScottP What are your base and scaled rates desired?

@bcg1976 @giddyupbill I'm not shitty with the companies at all. But we should change the royalties.

@TMFScottP @giddyupbill Sure. But they be shitty with who made the deal not the company pushing for maximum profit as they are duty bound to do.

Deliberate misdirection using numbers that aren't comparable. Analogous to comparing the amount of fuel excise you pay to my total tax bill. Accurate, but not even *close* to the same thing. And They know it. If they can't give it to us straight, that tells you a lot.

@SnapBackAU My suggestion is a royalty that starts with a base price then scales with prices.

@TMFScottP When LNG prices jump 70% gross margins surge and an export tax would capture greater revenues while a tax on volume wouldn’t rise unless production rises.

@bcg1976 @giddyupbill Dunno. But the government doesn't own the driller anything.

@TMFScottP @giddyupbill That makes more sense. Fair enough. But was the deal done to make it feasible?