David Bird (ASX Trader) B.Ed, CFTe

Major Milestone achieved for the public MtM account. (Account has tripled in 18months) At the beginning of last year, a few MtM students asked me a fair question: “How do we know what you’re teaching actually works?” So as you know I decided to show them — publicly. I opened a public MtM investing account (not a trading account). Minimal transactions. Long-term holds. I deposited $100,000 AUD (about $63,000 USD at the time). You’ve all been able to watch this journey publicly online for the last 18 months, from the moment I started it in April 2024 showing all the transaction statements. And as you know, we’re ASIC licensed — we’re an Authorised Representative of an AFSL — so I can’t post anything that’s misleading or untrue. As of today, that account has tripled to $189,000 USD. And what’s interesting is the part most people miss: the journey. A couple of months ago I showed you the account dropped from $270K to $220K — down $50,000aud in a couple of weeks — while many were calling a major top in gold and silver. My view didn’t change: the top wasn’t in. Because if you can’t handle the zags, you don’t deserve the zigs. Most people will never get outcomes like this for one reason: they don’t hold their winners. They cut them out of fear. Ironically, people hold onto losers because they don’t want to be wrong… but they struggle to hold onto winners because they don’t believe it can keep going. That’s why data > emotion. One thing you’ll notice is that the original $100K AUD isn’t $300K AUD yet and that’s simply because the Australian dollar has strengthened. When you invest in US assets from Australia, currency moves matter. As the AUD rises, it reduces the translated value of USD gains back into AUD terms. It’s a key factor to understand when investing offshore as I mentioned the other day with the AUD being bullish. But the best part of this milestone isn’t my result. I’ve received hundreds of messages from MtM students seeing similar progress — many doubling their accounts because they’ve learned to follow process, manage psychology, and let winners work. And that, to me, is the most important part. It’s easy for one person to do well. There’s no value in me knowing how to do this if I can’t transfer the skill to other people — so they can build it for themselves. That’s what MtM is. It’s education. I spent over a decade as a primary school teacher and HOC and that experience is everything. Not because it sounds nice but because it taught me how people actually learn. It’s not just what you teach. It’s how you sequence it. You build it like curriculum: one block at a time, in the right order, so students develop a deep, thorough understanding — not just a few tricks, not just a couple of setups, not just “signals.” Because markets don’t reward memorisation. They reward understanding. masteringthemarkets.com Learn - grow - succeed

@jazzyolaa @Lehman_Bro Still has massive upside its just cycles within cycles

@Lehman_Bro @ASX__Trader I think #copper is yet to run.. and it should run HARD. After this energy follis fuel fallout every nation on earth will try and accelerate their plans to achieve energy independence thru renewables, EV etc.. that cannot happen without #Copper #HCH

The commodity cycle tends to follow a clear sequence: Precious metals → Industrial metals → Energy → Soft commodities Each stage reflects where money is flowing as the economic environment changes. At the start of a cycle, uncertainty is high, so capital moves into precious metals like gold. These are seen as safe havens. As confidence improves, money rotates into industrial metals like copper. These are used in construction and infrastructure, so they benefit from growth. Then comes energy as demand increases from expanding economies. Finally, we reach soft commodities, which are things like wheat, corn, livestock, and agriculture-related stocks. But this isn’t just something you just see on a chart. It’s happening in the real world. We’re already seeing supply pressure build. Adam was sitting next to a farmer on the way to Perth, and the farmer mentioned he’s going from 8000 hectares down to 5000. And that’s best case. That’s a huge drop. And it’s not just one farmer. He said this is happening across the board. Farmers are scaling back. So supply is already tightening. Now layer on top of that rising costs. Fertiliser is expensive. Fuel is expensive. These are essential inputs. Farmers can’t operate without them. So when costs rise, farmers have two choices: 1) Absorb the cost and reduce profits 2) Cut back production Most choose to cut back. This is where it becomes really important to understand supply and demand in simple terms. When input costs rise: - Farmers produce less - Total supply drops - Demand doesn’t change much - Prices have to rise That’s the adjustment mechanism. Less supply + steady demand = higher prices This is why soft commodities tend to move last in the cycle. It takes time for these pressures to build. First, energy rises Then input costs rise Then farmers react Then supply drops Then prices move There’s a lag. So what you’re really looking for now is early signs of that shift. Because once supply constraints fully show up in pricing, the move is usually already underway. Simple way to think about it: Energy going up puts pressure on agriculture Agriculture responds by reducing supply Reduced supply pushes prices higher That’s the transition phase of the cycle. And that’s why agricultural stocks are starting to come into focus now.

@blokdag Cycles within cycles. This is just wave 1 for everything

@ASX__Trader We couldn’t have gone from precious metals to industrial metals to energy so quick. Industrial metals still has its time in the sun…. We kinda skipped the whole industrial metal phase due to the war, but we’re circling back to it.

@cesarsroy Sorry just realised you meant long term. Yes lots in long term especially silver miners

@cesarsroy Nothing in there as they are bearish on daily but have lots in long term as very bullish long term

If your portfolio is red today, it's because you're not following data. Trade the market you have in front of you, not what you want it to be. Defence wins championships!

@cesarsroy Correct i don't care about daily fluctuations on them they get rebalanced 4 times a year

@ASX__Trader Nice. well done sir. You mention "active portfolio" - I assume that you also have long term investments that are less active? maybe quarterly or yearly rebalancing?

@cesarsroy This is my active portfolio. Yes mostly energy, consumer staples and some hedges.

@ASX__Trader Man, most things one would have in their investment account (gold, any stock index bonds etc) is down… unless u tell me you only have energy stocks and crude in your portfolio… id say ur portfolio must be down too

@A_N_D_Y_D_N_A Yes absolutely im holding all my long term. None in my active account though

@ASX__Trader You were pretty big on gold and silver. Still holding anything through this?

@CryptoRound2 Nice well done mate

@ASX__Trader Up pretty well thanks in big part to your posts. Closed a good chunk on this trade already too. Months work in the pocket and will pet the rest ride.

@Avaaaast I was early on it to but cut it when I realised I was. It'll be my major focus in 2026

@ASX__Trader I guess I'm early on Healthcare?

@LoveThyReef What nonsense exactly?

@ASX__Trader Am I the only one getting sick of this nonsense?

@ca91450 @LoveThyReef How exactly is it offensive?

@LoveThyReef @ASX__Trader not his best post, actually, pretty offensive.

Free webinar tonight! I spoke at the Block Earner high net worth event last week, and one of our MtM students was there from our current cohort. He was walking around the whole room absolutely raving about MtM and how impactful the program has already been in just the first seven weeks. I had multiple people come up to me asking, “Mate… is he a plant?” They said he just kept going on about how good MtM is and that everyone in the room should join. And honestly, I love hearing that. It is something we see a lot at our live events. It is also one of the reasons I never wanted to build MtM with affiliate marketing or referral bonuses etc. I never wanted people promoting MtM for financial gain. I wanted people sharing it because they genuinely loved learning and believed in what we are building has or is impacting them in a positive way. When that happens, the message spreads naturally. But the proudest moment for me last night was something else. That student is not in my class. He is not in Craig’s class. He is in Jamie’s class. Jamie was a student two years ago. He was not a profitable trader. He did not understand how the markets worked. And now he is teaching the next generation of students. That is the part that makes me incredibly proud. He is a product of the system. I would happily put him in front of anyone knowing the quality of the content and the way he teaches is just as strong as Craig or myself, and we have both been doing this for a long time. He is doing a live webinar tonight and I said to him, that is your biggest draw card. People will see someone who finished MtM recently and teaching at this level and realise what is possible. At the most recent graduation it really hit me just how many lives we have changed. Not just financially, but personally as well. That is what a great community does. That is what culture does. That is what changing lives actually looks like. And I feel incredibly lucky to be surrounded by the best team. Not just the educators on the front line, but the people working behind the scenes every day making everything run. Could not be more grateful. Could not be more proud.

2026 - The Year of Defence The whole year I’ve pretty much been telling MtM one thing. Defence, defence, defence. When I did my free webinar in early January that thousands of you attended, I said 2026 was shaping up as a year for defence. So far, that’s exactly what it has been. This hasn’t really been a year about making money. It’s been about protecting the gains many of you made in 2025. Right now, there’s really only one sector showing clear strength, and that’s energy. Meanwhile, the chart I’m watching closely is SQQQ. It’s starting to show a potential shift in market structure with strong volume, bullish divergence, a liquidity sweep at the lows, and a falling wedge pattern. Those are some of the strongest signals traders look for when a market might be preparing to move. For those who don’t know, SQQQ tracks the inverse of the NASDAQ. In simple terms, it moves higher when the NASDAQ falls. And that’s telling you a lot about the current environment. I can’t stress this enough. Right now the mindset is defence. Across most sectors I’m still seeing signs that more downside could come. That includes areas like commodities. Gold, silver, uranium, and others can still have sharp pullbacks even when the bigger long-term trend remains intact. Markets don’t move in straight lines. Even in strong trends there are big zig zags along the way. So, if you’re operating with a short-term mindset, the focus right now is capital protection. If you’re operating with a long-term mindset, the approach can be very different. Long term portfolios are built to sit through volatility and large swings. Personally, my short and medium term accounts are extremely defensive right now. My long-term investments are a different story. Those are positions I’m comfortable holding through the ups and downs. Please don't ask for personal advice I legally can't give it even if I wanted to.

NotebookLM added a new video format option, a more documentary style vid. Thought i'd take it for a test drive, and here it is. It's based on analysis from @ASX__Trader, a trader/investor i trust who covers macro cycles/rotations and stuff like that. I've been tracking him for over 2 yrs and he is consistently right when it comes to macro calls. He's worth paying attention to. I've been gathering his public social media posts since last year, manually documenting them into my Obsidian vault one-by-one, with the intention of using AI to help me learn and connect the dots between the concepts he posts about. I'm sharing this with people cos the new video format is interesting but all credit here goes to David who posts extremely useful content and has a knack for breaking down investing concepts into simple chunks. Highly recommend following his account if you're interested in bigger-picture stuff. Dude is rarely wrong. P.s. I'll prob get back into posting Moneytaur vids soon now that there's a new video format, the old format was getting stale for me. But it may take a while cos they've limited it to only 2 generations per day for ppl on the Pro plan!

@Hunter__Daniel Got in at $22 using my brain instead

@ASX__Trader Could have gotten in earlier (end of Jan) using 3 x super trend indicator.

A small tip that can completely change how you look at dividend stocks. This is Woodside on the 3 month chart. One thing you will notice is that every time the market becomes extremely oversold and momentum crosses back bullish, something very interesting happens. 100% of the time Woodside has reached this level of oversold conditions and crossed bullish again, it has delivered at least a one year bull market. Every single time. That does not mean the market goes straight up. Markets never move in a straight line. But historically when Woodside reaches this level of oversold momentum and then turns bullish, it has marked the start of a major move higher. This is where combining technical analysis, fundamentals, and macro becomes powerful. Most people buy Woodside for income because it pays a strong dividend. But there is also a little trick inside TradingView that can completely change how this chart looks. When you see it, the entire structure of Woodside makes a lot more sense. I have left a small clue in the comments for anyone curious enough to go looking. This is one of the reasons I hold a large position in Woodside across my long, medium and short term portfolios. I look for income stocks that also have the potential to deliver strong growth. My view is simple. I believe Woodside will take out its previous highs within the next five years, and while I wait I will be collecting a very healthy dividend along the way. That combination is incredibly powerful. You are getting paid while the asset appreciates. In many ways its like buying property at the bottom of the GFC. The difference is you do not have the headaches that come with property. No tenants No repairs No maintenance No phone calls when something breaks You simply own the asset, collect the income, and let time do the heavy lifting while you go and enjoy your life. check the comments for Woodside adjusted for the dividends chart and you'll see what I'm seeing.

Energy stocks are leading the market again, yet many investors still think this is just a short-term trend. It’s not. Here is an important reminder: Most oil companies are generating free cash flow near historical highs with WTI above $80. This likely marks the early stages of a much larger long-term move, in my view. tavicosta.substack.com/p/the-physical…

What you will notice on the dividend adjusted chart is that Woodside was actually in a major bear market from 2008 to 2020, moving largely sideways during that entire period. The COVID low in 2020 marked the major bottom, very similar to what we saw in silver. From that point, Woodside began a new bull market, rallying strongly and pushing up to a new high into 2023. Over the past few years we have simply seen a healthy correction, pulling back toward the 0.618 Fibonacci level, which also aligns with the old resistance channel now acting as support. Technically this is exactly the type of structure you would expect to see during a developing bull market. And now price is beginning to move again about to take out new highs which suggests Woodside may be entering the early stage of an expansion phase and the beginning of the next major leg higher. In other words, it is likely approaching the point where the move shifts into the public phase of the cycle, even though most investors do not realise it yet because they do not fully understand how income stocks behave on dividend adjusted charts.