David Bird (ASX Trader) B.Ed, CFTe

Major Milestone achieved for the public MtM account. (Account has tripled in 18months) At the beginning of last year, a few MtM students asked me a fair question: “How do we know what you’re teaching actually works?” So as you know I decided to show them — publicly. I opened a public MtM investing account (not a trading account). Minimal transactions. Long-term holds. I deposited $100,000 AUD (about $63,000 USD at the time). You’ve all been able to watch this journey publicly online for the last 18 months, from the moment I started it in April 2024 showing all the transaction statements. And as you know, we’re ASIC licensed — we’re an Authorised Representative of an AFSL — so I can’t post anything that’s misleading or untrue. As of today, that account has tripled to $189,000 USD. And what’s interesting is the part most people miss: the journey. A couple of months ago I showed you the account dropped from $270K to $220K — down $50,000aud in a couple of weeks — while many were calling a major top in gold and silver. My view didn’t change: the top wasn’t in. Because if you can’t handle the zags, you don’t deserve the zigs. Most people will never get outcomes like this for one reason: they don’t hold their winners. They cut them out of fear. Ironically, people hold onto losers because they don’t want to be wrong… but they struggle to hold onto winners because they don’t believe it can keep going. That’s why data > emotion. One thing you’ll notice is that the original $100K AUD isn’t $300K AUD yet and that’s simply because the Australian dollar has strengthened. When you invest in US assets from Australia, currency moves matter. As the AUD rises, it reduces the translated value of USD gains back into AUD terms. It’s a key factor to understand when investing offshore as I mentioned the other day with the AUD being bullish. But the best part of this milestone isn’t my result. I’ve received hundreds of messages from MtM students seeing similar progress — many doubling their accounts because they’ve learned to follow process, manage psychology, and let winners work. And that, to me, is the most important part. It’s easy for one person to do well. There’s no value in me knowing how to do this if I can’t transfer the skill to other people — so they can build it for themselves. That’s what MtM is. It’s education. I spent over a decade as a primary school teacher and HOC and that experience is everything. Not because it sounds nice but because it taught me how people actually learn. It’s not just what you teach. It’s how you sequence it. You build it like curriculum: one block at a time, in the right order, so students develop a deep, thorough understanding — not just a few tricks, not just a couple of setups, not just “signals.” Because markets don’t reward memorisation. They reward understanding. masteringthemarkets.com Learn - grow - succeed

@WarrenG1698447 Was saying that a winning trade would have turned into a loser if i didn't follow my plan

@ASX__Trader So are you saying this trade is going to the downside rather than the upside?

How many times have you turned a winning trade into a losing trade because you thought you caught the major bottom in a stock? Most of the time, you only caught the bottom of a zag retracement. I can’t even tell you how many times I did this in my early trading days. You guys saw before I went to New Zealand, I said I was going long on WiseTech because it was showing life off a major support level. Then when it got into that first key zag zone, I started seeing weakness and thought, you know what, I’m taking profit on my short-term trading account. I was up $7K in just over a week. We were at a key level where I expected rejection. To be honest, I actually thought it would push a bit higher from there after the retracement. I was wrong. And this is where psychology comes into play. Because you have a plan. You tell yourself, I’m going to sell there. But then the mind starts playing games. “What if WiseTech goes back to all-time highs?” “What if it runs to back to the all time high of $150?” “I could make $100K.” And suddenly you stop thinking like a trader and start thinking about the jackpot instead of locking in the win sitting right in front of you. I was lucky enough to sell on the exact day of the top. Because from there, that $7K profit would have turned into a loss. I would’ve actually now been down about $1,000. What you’ve got to remember is just because you get a reversal, it doesn’t automatically mean a new major uptrend has started. Your job as a trader isn’t to catch every last dollar of a move. Your job is to execute your edge consistently over and over again. Stick to your plan. Know your trade plan. Execute. Rinse and repeat. That’s how you become a highly profitable trader.

Consumer sentiment has hit its lowest in history . One thing that really stands out on this chart… Look how many recession periods there used to be. Back in the 60s, 70s, 80s and even early 90s, recessions happened regularly. The economy would boom, reset, recover… then repeat the cycle. But since the GFC? We’ve basically only had one brief recession during COVID, and even that was heavily cushioned by massive stimulus, money printing and emergency intervention. Now look at consumer sentiment. Historically, whenever sentiment drops this low something has usually already broken underneath the surface. That’s what makes this chart so interesting to me. Consumers already feel recessionary… even though markets are still elevated and many economists continue debating whether a recession is even coming. There’s a real disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street right now. The average person feels it every day: • Higher food prices • Higher insurance costs • Higher rent and mortgage repayments • Rising energy bills • Working harder just to maintain the same lifestyle People are exhausted. And here’s the part that’s actually quite scary… Recessions are healthy. Nobody likes hearing that, but historically recessions are part of how economies reset excesses. Weak businesses fail. Debt gets cleared out. Speculation cools down. Asset bubbles deflate. The system resets and starts rebuilding again. The problem is… we’ve delayed that process for so long now. Every slowdown since 2008 has been met with: • Lower rates • More stimulus • More liquidity • More debt • More intervention That helps short term pain. But over time it also creates bigger imbalances underneath the surface: • Record debt levels • Inflated asset prices • Housing affordability problems • Speculative behaviour everywhere • Massive dependence on cheap money It’s a bit like a forest. Small fires are healthy because they clear out the dead wood. But if you suppress every small fire for decades, eventually you create the conditions for one enormous uncontrollable fire. Maybe this time really is different. Or maybe we’ve simply delayed the economic cycle so long that when the reset finally comes, it becomes one of the largest economic adjustments most people alive have ever experienced.

@0x_theProfessor Thanks mate

@ASX__Trader Great write up mate

Hi everyone, as promised, I’ve put together a full report inside the FREE section of our academy. Link below. I originally tried to fit this into a social media post… but honestly there’s too much data, too many charts, and too many historical parallels to explain properly in a few paragraphs without oversimplifying it. You may have also seen my recent article doing the rounds in the papers today discussing the possibility of a looming recession. That article only scratched the surface. Inside this report, I break down why I believe the current macro environment is starting to resemble historical stagflationary periods using an abundance of data, historical comparisons, and intermarket analysis. And as promised, if we do move into that kind of environment: what assets historically performed well? what sectors benefited? and which ASX companies could potentially thrive during that phase? I also touch on: Some of the data similarities are honestly fascinating. Couldn’t fit it all into a social post without massively oversimplifying it. It’s completely free to check out. Link below in comments 👇

Yeah, nothing really changes for me. I build wealth inside the company investment structure and keep the profits there, taxed at 25%, which helps compound capital much faster over time. Then me and my wife simply pay ourselves dividends each year while keeping our personal income under the $190k bracket each so we avoid pushing into the top marginal tax rate. All the assets continue building inside the company, while living expenses are covered personally through controlled distributions. It’s a long-term compounding structure rather than constantly pulling profits out and getting smashed personally on tax.

@ASX__Trader I don't mean to attack you, I do feel it is wrong of you to not acknowledge the usefulness of this CGT Tax discount. But we now have a clear difference on why. You intend to never take money out of the company! I intend to take money out. To take money out means tax at 47%

For decades, Australian house prices and wages moved fairly closely together. Then the capital gains tax discount came in around 1999. Since then, property prices have absolutely detached from income growth. People who already owned assets saw their wealth explode. People relying on wages got left behind. That’s why the divide today feels so big. It’s not just “work harder.” It’s asset inflation vs wage growth. And if you didn’t own assets during that period, catching up became dramatically harder.

@2730eth @ca91450 Getaway. Good accountant and you'll see there are ways around how to structure it best to suit you

@ASX__Trader @ca91450 Can you do personal expense from company accounts then?

@ca91450 Why would I ever take it out of the company? Think you need to brush up on how it all works instead of attacking me

@ASX__Trader When you take money out your corporation guess what? You pay tax at marginal rate. You use franking but you still pay tax at 47% max. The corporation idea adds no value here unless you dont take any dividends until retirement. You know this. Tell me i am wrong.

Right, well that shows me you don’t understand how tax works. Whether I hold something for one minute or one year inside a company structure, I’m paying a flat 25% tax rate anyway. Even with the individual capital gains discount, you’re still paying tax on half the gain at up to 47%, which works out to roughly 23.5%. So I’m effectively giving up about 1.5% in exchange for complete flexibility and not having the pressure of forcing myself to hold positions for 12 months just for tax reasons. For my style of investing and portfolio management, that trade-off is worth it.

@ASX__Trader You run a business telling folks to short term trade. You say you dont give a hoot about cgt discount. I lost all respect for you. The discount meant a lot to people eho invest long term. You push short term trading. People lose. You show how you dont care.

Australia Is Already In A Recession. They Just Haven’t Announced It Yet. Everyone keeps talking about inflation, but almost nobody is talking about what just happened with unemployment. Australia’s unemployment rate just jumped from 4.3% to 4.5%. Most people look at that and think, “Eh, not too bad.” But unemployment is lagging data. By the time the average person notices it, businesses have already slowed hiring, layoffs have already started, and families are already feeling it. Like I always say, you do not make money reacting to where the puck is. You make money anticipating where it’s going. So let me show you something most people are ignoring. I pulled up the Australian unemployment rate on the 3-month chart. The MACD has only ever crossed bullish FOUR times before today. 1991 recession. 2000 tech bubble. 2007 GFC. 2020 COVID crash. Every single time, a recession followed. 100% strike rate. Thats the big green zones on the chart. And now? It has crossed bullish again. You ca see the green histogram bars I boxed in red before every major downturn. “But they haven’t announced a recession.” Of course they haven’t. Governments only officially call a recession after two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. By the time they confirm it, people have already been living through it for months. And here’s the scary part. We now have rising unemployment while inflation is still elevated. That combination has a name: Stagflation. The same economic environment that wrecked economies in the 1970s. Higher prices. Weak growth. Job losses. The charts are warning us. You know what's happening. The question is: Is anyone listening?

@cageeone Agree was a perfect bullish storm

@ASX__Trader It was a factor but not only one. First home owners grant came in at same time and it was at that time that Howard started big Australia and doubled migrant intake which has kept growing to mass migration we see now. Interest rates also kept dropping. All added to current mess.

@SeanoftheWeb3 Still very bullish long term as long as you're in miners

@ASX__Trader Been a turbulent week in Australian politics. How do you see small miners under the proposed tax changes, David? Boosting industry confidence or a matter of thinning out the weak? Asking for a friend 😉 #AusPol

Big changes announced in Australia last night around capital gains tax, negative gearing and trusts. Honestly, I don’t really care about removing the 50% capital gains discount. Everything I buy is already inside company structures anyway, so I was already paying a flat company tax rate. I never really got that discount to begin with. Same with negative gearing. If you’re serious about building long-term wealth, eventually you start thinking more about structure, cash flow and tax planning instead of just buying assets personally and hoping for deductions. The one thing that DID catch my attention though was the trust changes. From 2028, discretionary/family trusts will face a new 30% minimum tax on distributions. That’s a major shift for business owners, investors and families who’ve used trusts for flexibility and income distribution. PROS: • Government is trying to simplify the system and reduce aggressive income splitting. • Could create a more level playing field between PAYG workers and higher income families using trusts. • Might slightly reduce speculative investing. CONS: • Trusts lose a lot of flexibility. • Small business owners and investors get hit hardest. • More people will likely move toward company structures instead. • Good accountants just became even more valuable. At the end of the day, wealthy people will adapt. They always do. But this is another reminder that learning how money, tax and structures work is just as important as learning how to invest. MtM's CFO Greg, who is a chartered accountant, will be doing a special call next Friday for MtM students/members on the changes in detail.

@bacsacancrac Post never said it was the sole reason.

@ASX__Trader So in other words CGT discount was a marginal factor which contradicts your original post.

@G_Force1981 Might want to read all of the post including what I put in comments

@ASX__Trader The first home buyers grant was also released at the same time interest rates dropped to record lows, please don't spread half the facts

@ianclarkeAU Yes agree and have stated same thing

@ASX__Trader Fallacy. Correlation is not causation. Interest rates also fell, and immigration increase. CGT is only paid on investment property, which is too small to have this impact.

@tax_oz Thats Correlation not causation. Never said it was the sole factor

@ASX__Trader You didn’t? Ok fair enough. I was just reading the words in sequence and applying their normal meaning. Apologies if this unique approach to English comprehension misrepresented your intent. 👍🏻

@tax_oz Never said it was the only reason. It was a combination of many factors creating the perfect bullish storm. Most of those same factors are creating the perfect bearish storm now.

The power of the CGT discount to cause house prices to boom across the entire anglosphere was incredible. That you can pay just as much tax under indexation on property as you do under the CGT discount is another amazing thing given it’s apparently super powers. Given your profile, how TF do you expect anyone to learn anything from you when you don’t understand basic concepts?

@QuintenFrancois Anyone that knows anything about trend lines knows the more obvious the trend line is, the weaker it usually is. The market sees the same thing you see. The cleanest lines attract the most traders. That’s exactly why they get hunted so often.

Don’t overthink it