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Aaron Smith
4.4K posts
Aaron Smith
@ASmithUCB
Gordon Rausser Distinguished Chair, Dept of Ag & Resource Econ, UC Berkeley. 🇺🇲 NZ born and raised. 🇳🇿 Ag Data News blog: https://t.co/nEetRBCO9b
Berkeley, CA Katılım Ağustos 2019
382 Takip Edilen2K Takipçiler
Hal White was a man before his time. He is chronically under appreciated. He wrote one of the most highly cited papers in the history of economics (White (1980)). Absolute lock for the Nobel if he had lived longer.
Yucheng Yang@YuchengYang1993
Xiaohong Chen (Yale) presented “Neural Networks for Economics: Theory & Inference”. Long before today’s AI boom, econometricians (Chen, White, and others) built foundations for neural nets as sieves. These tools are now crucial for NN-based estimation and inference in economics.
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Aaron Smith retweetledi
Nowadays, dystopically: Professor stands at the front of a dimly lit room and talks through slides projected onto a giant screen, occasionally writing on a whiteboard with pens that don’t work. A small number of students stare blankly at their laptops or phones.
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In this week's Ag Data News, I wrote about teaching large classes in the age of AI.
open.substack.com/pub/agdatanews…
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Most of the class didn’t show up. They told themselves they would download the slides and watch a recording of the lecture later, but they probably won’t because ChatGPT will do their homework.
In reality, things aren’t that dystopian, and the old days weren’t quite that good.
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The old days, nostalgically: Professor stands at the front of the room and talks while writing feverishly on the chalkboard. Riveted students take detailed notes and ask incisive questions. If they have to miss class, they borrow a friend’s notes and transcribe them to keep up.
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Please join us for an in-person workshop on the land-use effects of biofuels on May 28 at UC Berkeley.
There is little consensus on this topic. This conference will bring together researchers with a range of perspectives to hash it out.
its.ucdavis.edu/events/revisit…
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Today, I responded to some critiques of our analysis. In short, our analysis did not contain faulty assumptions or facts. open.substack.com/pub/agdatanews…
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Last month, my co-authors and I showed that it would reduce road funding, raise gasoline and diesel prices, and deliver expensive small carbon emissions reductions. energyathaas.wordpress.com/2026/02/23/hig…
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California Governor Gavin Newsom has proposed a new tax credit that would allow oil companies that pay diesel taxes to reduce their tax bill if they also produce sustainable aviation fuel.
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@dunnde Anticipating this could be one reason D4 barely declined as fossil diesel prices increased in the last month. Maybe.
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Interesting results
What we know - with supplemental the total volume is 26.81 billion
hard to see us net generating more than 14.2 D6s
Cellulosic is 1.36; only question is how many D5s which is probably 200-500mm
thats a lot of D4s needed
co2trader.eth@dunnde
short 2 hour poll im curious cc @OilandGibbs how many D4 RINs needed in 2026
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Aaron Smith retweetledi
“While using 20 year warming instead of 100 year warming has been a convenient way for opponents of natural gas to inflate the impact that natural gas has on the warming of the planet, it also makes a mockery of the notion that climate change is centrally an issue of intergenerational equity.”
@TedNordhaus in 2024
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Aaron Smith retweetledi
Farmer pays $5–$8 per cow per month.
A New Zealand company puts a solar-powered smart collar on cows.
It tracks location 24/7, health, temperature, chewing activity, breeding.
Farmer just opens a simple app and draws a line on the map.
That line becomes the fence.
As cows approach the boundary, the collar beeps and vibrates.
With one tap, the whole herd moves to fresh grass or the milking shed.
No physical fences. Less labor. Huge cost savings for farmer.
Already on 700k cows across New Zealand, Australia, and the US.
and now in talks to raise at a $2B valuation led by Peter Thiel.
Polymarket@Polymarket
JUST IN: AI cow collar startup Halter raises at $2,000,000,000.00 valuation, uses proprietary “cowgorithm” to herd cattle.
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People, it's daylight saving not daylight savings.
And it's a good system.
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@asymmetricinfo Very real. Expensive, so currently used only in crops with few herbicide alternatives, such as onions or anything organic. The laser weeder is best at killing really tiny weeds (1mm). Other tech uses spray instead of lasers, is better for larger weeds. open.substack.com/pub/agdatanews…
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Aaron Smith retweetledi
Aaron Smith examines how new legislation will effect CA gas prices in new #AREUpdate article “California Now Allows More Ethanol in Gasoline: Is This Going to Save Drivers Money?"
Read more: tinyurl.com/ybazbbre
#E15 #GasPrices @ASmithUCB
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This week in Ag Data News (cross posted in EI Blog), California now allows more ethanol in gasoline — is this going to save drivers money?
Short answer: No
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/12/08/cal…
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@dunnde @OilandGibbs @ScottIrwinUI @CCapLP @JarrettRenshaw Well, nerds like me will advocate for higher ILUC values or some other way of dealing with LUC.
In LCFS: biogas, electricity and others benefit from higher credit prices. One way to raise credit prices is to limit liquid biofuel credit values by imposing higher ILUC.
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@OilandGibbs @ScottIrwinUI @CCapLP @JarrettRenshaw ILUC is here to stay even under dems, imo
who on earth would lobby for it to go away?
growth / rfa - hell no
SBA (national / states) - double hell no
refiners - still a hell no (well those with RD facilities anyway)
first rule of biofuel policy - embrace the grift
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@JarrettRenshaw with the update.
"Trump administration may delay biofuel import credit cuts as refiners balk"
Are folks finally listening?! Remember you can still raise the D4 mandate to 8.8B from 7.1B proposed IF this is the case, which is our preferred, constructive view.
reuters.com/sustainability…
Brett Gibbs@OilandGibbs
I've been debating this with many, so lets see what you all think. For 2026, would you rather have a D4 mandate as proposed of 7.1B with 50% RIN equivalence or no RIN equivalence discounts and bump the D4 mandate to 8.8B?
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