Joe@JoeA_NFL
There is no sound reason for the Vikings to start Kyler Murray over JJ McCarthy, but they will anyway.
Bad Planning
Just to begin, don’t focus on which QB you think is better. Focus on which course of action is better.
Would you rather:
A) Hitch your wagon to 1 year of a severely limited, experienced, known quantity… or
B) Hand the keys to an unproven, 22 yr old QB with a much higher ceiling, with 3 more years of cheap roster control?
I personally think that JJ McCarthy is a better QB than Kyler Murray, but that’s not the issue. The real problem is that, even if Kyler is a little better, that's insane asset & risk mismanagement.
You have to play the younger, higher-upside, higher downside QB no matter what.
If JJ pans out, you're a contender.
If JJ sucks, you get a high pick in an extremely hyped draft.
Anything between is the same as Kyler anyway!
Winning Now
Some may argue that the Vikings need to start Kyler Murray because are too good of a roster—they need to win now.
Are they really winning now with a QB who falls between QB20 and QB30? We have seen Kyler play for 7 years. The results have not been good—especially since he lost Kliff Kingsbury. Because even in an offense that hides how hindered Kyler is by his diminutive height, Kyler just isn’t that accurate or consistent.
JJ McCarthy is far from a sure thing. He has played 10 games.
There’s a chance that JJ is a top 20 QB in 2026. He just turned 23 and he looked real good to end 2025. Plenty of reason for optimism. If you get this version of JJ McCarthy, you are in contention for a Super Bowl.
There is also a very real chance JJ is truly awful—outside the top 40 QBs. If you get this version of JJ, you are going to be at the bottom of the league… with a top pick in the uber-hyped 2027 draft.
Anything between those outcomes is roughly the same outcome as the Vikings can expect with Kyler.
So Kyler probably nets you a fringe wild card season (Assuming he stays healthy and plays the way he has for the last few years). That’s not really “winning now,” is it?
Starting JJ gets you either:
1. A magical season and playoff run with a young QB that is under contract;
2. A fringe wild card season like Kyler’s; or
3. A disaster that nets you a top pick in a LOADED draft and total certainty about your direction forward.
Literally all 3 of those outcomes is equal to or better than the outcome if you start Kyler. There's absolutely no viable argument for choosing the Kyler option.
The Justin Jefferson Problem
The elephant in the room is that Jefferson demanded either the Vikings sign Kyler or trade him. This isn’t a guess.
If I were the Vikings’ brass, my counter would be, "Don't let the door hit you on the way out". If my wide receiver, who will need an extension soon anyway, is trying to make demands on what we do at quarterback—especially really dumb demands like starting Kyler Murray over JJ McCarthy—I'm trading his ass immediately. Former GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah learned this the hard way.
If JJ McCarthy is as bad as people like Jefferson think he is, you are primed to get a top pick like Arch Manning in the apparently legendary 2027 draft. May as well load up on a ton of assets. Justin Jefferson would probably net at least 2 first round picks! More to rapidly rebuild with.
If McCarthy is as good as I think he will be, you are a contender with or without Jefferson. That's before we even start counting up the assets the Vikings could receive in return for Justin Jefferson while his reputation is still sky-high.
