Atul Malhotra
34.2K posts

Atul Malhotra
@ATU1L
If it doesn't bring peace, profit, or purpose, don't give it your time, energy, or attention.




Iran is losing this war militarily, but winning it strategically. Let me explain. First we need to determine what a win actually looks like. For Trump, he needs Iran to be more friendly to the U.S. so he can have more influence over the most important energy chokepoint in the world: the Strait of Hormuz. In other words, he needs to cut Iran off from China. For Iran to "win," all they need to do is survive. And to survive, Iran needs to force the U.S. to end the war before the regime collapses. There are 2 ways to achieve this: 1. Keep the Strait of Hormuz closed for another 3 weeks. This will severely harm the economies of Asian and European countries, who will then pressure Trump to end the war. 2. Keep causing havoc in the Gulf, forcing those same countries to pressure Trump as well. And Iran will likely be able to achieve both, not through missiles, but through drones. The U.S. and Israel have been able to wipe out the majority of missile launchers through rapid satellite detection. But destroying drone factories, which are very easy to set up in apartments and underground locations, is a much harder problem. So despite America's military might and a very successful campaign, the regime seems to be getting more radicalized, not less. And instead of causing protesters to rise up against the regime, we're seeing a rally around the flag. The Kurdish separatists? Too small to make a difference. Iran's military is massive. Unless something changes, Iran may end up winning this war with the regime still in power. Trump can still declare victory, and rightfully so, given the destruction of Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs. But his core goal, gaining control and influence over the Strait of Hormuz, will have failed.


BREAKING: QatarEnergy just declared Force Majeure. Three words that mean: we cannot deliver, and legally, we do not have to. This is no longer a supply disruption. This is a contract collapse. Force Majeure is not a precaution. It is a formal legal declaration that an unforeseeable event beyond QatarEnergy’s control has made fulfillment impossible. Every affected buyer just had their contract voided. The gas they were counting on is gone, and they have no legal recourse to get it back. 82% of Qatar’s LNG goes to Asia. China relies on Qatar for 30% of its LNG imports. India 42 to 52%. South Korea 14 to 19%. Taiwan 25%. Japan is already rationing to spot markets. Asian benchmark prices jumped 39% the day production stopped. Force Majeure just made that permanent until further notice. Indian companies have already cut gas supplies to industry by 10 to 30%. That is not a market adjustment. That is factories running at reduced capacity today, across the world’s most populous continent, because Iran sent drones into Ras Laffan. Here is the number the market still has not fully absorbed. Two weeks to restart a liquefaction train after a full cold shutdown. Then two more weeks to reach full capacity. That is a minimum of four weeks at zero, assuming no further strikes, no security complications, no inspection delays. The war is still running. There is no security guarantee. There is no restart timeline. There is no floor. Every LNG contract in Asia just became a spot market problem. Every spot market problem just became an inflation problem. Every inflation problem just became a central bank problem. This started as a war in the Middle East. It is now inside every factory, every power plant, and every gas bill across Asia. Price that chain. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

BREAKING: Trump says Congress is becoming antisemitic and isn’t serving the Jewish lobby well enough.














