Grotesque
3.2K posts

Grotesque
@A_House_Built__
در زندان آموختم که صبر فقط یک فضیلت نیست؛ بلکه سلاحی است، سلاح تلخ. مانند کسی که قطره قطره دریا را مینوشد.

How many missiles does Iran stilll have? During the 12-day war, I estimated Iran’s missile stockpile at around 20,000, based on the number of different models and the years they entered production. Of that total, I calculated approximately 7,000 to 8,000 ballistic missiles and 12,000 to 13,000 cruise missiles, including both units in service and those in reserve. Iran began mass-producing ballistic missiles in the early 1990s, starting with the Shahab-2, which was produced for about 15 years, and the Shahab-3, manufactured from 2004 to 2008 before being replaced by more modern systems. These were lower-precision missiles, which is why, in 2015, Iran launched a major refurbishment and modernization program for these old stocks, replacing guidance systems and warheads. Today, there are certainly still a few thousand of these older missiles in reserve, and I do count them. Around 2010, Iran was already producing about 12 different models of ballistic and cruise missiles. If we assume a conservative average production rate of roughly 100 units per model per year, taking into account multiple parallel production lines, that alone would give Iran, over the last 15 years, an arsenal exceeding 17,000 missiles. The picture becomes even clearer when we look at 2015 onward. At that time, Iranian production lines were operating with at least 8 to 12 models with ranges over 1,000 km. Cruise missiles like the Soumar and Meshkat already had ranges exceeding 2,000 km, as did about 7 to 10 variants of two-stage solid-fuel ballistic missiles such as the Emad, Sejjil, and others. In other words, Iran spent at least 10 years producing on a significant scale 8 to 12 models of ballistic and cruise missiles capable of reaching Israel. Russia, even while fighting a full-scale war in Ukraine, produces around 2,500 precision missiles per year. There is simply no logic in claiming that Iran, after more than 30 years of dedicated missile production with multiple active lines, had only 2,500 missiles in stockpile as of February, as many Western think tanks claim. These estimates consistently understate Iran’s real industrial capacity. Iran has an entire ecosystem of public companies, private firms, and startups, with more than 300 companies dedicated to the missiles sector, out of a total of another 6,500 that support the country’s defense in various areas. Read full article: open.substack.com/pub/global21/p…

نگران تولید موشک نباشید! ایران در حالت عادی هر هفته بین ۱۲ تا ۱۳ تا موشک تولید کرده، یعنی بیش از ۵۰ تا در ماه. (بنا به گفته منابع غربی). روبیو که می گفت ایران هر ماه ۱۰۰ تا میسازه! ولی اکثر منابع گفتن ایران، هر ماه بیش از ۵۰ موشک تولید می کنه. بعد از جنگ ۱۲ روزه تعداد ساخت موشک های ایران، شتاب بیشتری داشته و در جنگ ۱۲ روزه و در این جنگ اخیر هم سیستم موشکی بر خلاف تبلیغات رسانه ای زیاد آسیب ندیده... اینها چون بحث های فنی هست، نیاز به توضیح اضافه به مخاطب توییتر نداره. در همین حد بدونین که ادعاهای فرماندهان لافی در غریبی نبوده و از مکان شهرک های موشکی، کاملا مشخصه که حرفاشون درست بوده.


به همسایگان جنوبی ایران میگویم: شما در حال دیدن یک معجزه هستید پس درست ببینید و درک کنید و در جای درست بایستید و به وعدههای دروغ شیاطین بدگمان باشید. هنوز منتظر واکنش مناسبی از سوی شما هستیم تا برادری و خیرخواهی خود را نشان دهیم؛ این صورت نمیگیرد مگر با اِعراض شما از مستکبران.


IT'S COMING A BOMBSHELL REPORT about Melania Trump and Jeffrey Epstein STAY TUNED


توصیه میکنم پیش از راه انداختن موتور تحلیل و ابراز نظر در مورد نتایج این جنگ و برنده و بازنده ۴۰ روز بمباران، موشک و پهپاد به خودتون زحمت بدهید و این گزارش نیویورک تایمز در مورد رخ دادهای روزهای پیش از حمله را بخوانید. nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/…






Soon I will publish an analysis on the costs of the war, which is now approaching its 40th day. The cost of defense and attack munitions alone so far is nearing $60 billion, with aviation operational costs adding another $60 billion. When total costs include direct damage/destruction to American, Israeli, and Gulf countries’ assets, the figure already reached $200 billion in less than 40 days of war, perfectly in line with my estimate from five weeks ago of $360 billion for a three month conflict.








