KonMan

@stockdatamarket Many days like this in the last few weeks, no directional changes have come to fruition. I’ll play the other side once we get sight of it

Only experienced traders will understand this. WARNING: This post is NOT for rookies. This is easily the biggest WTF moment of the day in the stock market… and honestly, I still have zero explanation for it.

@orrdavid I think there’s three key pieces that make me believe the AI bubble narrative: 1. Record high CAPEX investments into a thing that could be over evaluated, AI 2. Record high incestual debt investing between top mega corps 3. The masses no longer benefit, ex. more layoffs = 📈

$TSM at 20x earnings, $GOOG at 30x earnings... it just doesn't seem like a bubble at least in the main stocks. Maybe kind of expensive, maybe not though. If the core doesn't seem insane, I just don't get how we call this market a bubble. Expensive, sure. Some pockets are insane, of course - like always.

@StockNews690137 AVP?

they just literally fired a AVP, just now, bro it's getting real holy shit

@MyBankIsFat Say Reload

$SPY 729P @.34

“Lord, give me wisdom, peace, and strength during this difficult time. Guide everyone involved toward truth and justice. Protect my mind from fear and fill my heart with faith. Amen.”

@assface_burner Mr.Assface, this is helpful news that will be taken with the upmost seriousness

Trumps 48 hour deadline for Iran's response been postponed until after May opex - AXIOS

@AndrewKolvet It’s no longer the Charlie Kirk show, you’ve destroyed his ratings. Put it to rest, it’s weird that you haven’t

Last night's results in Indiana expose the real frustrations that conservatives feel with elected leaders who take their votes for granted. Democrats like David Axelrod tried to spin it as fear of Trump, but the real story is simpler. Voters are tired of betrayal. Incumbents who verbally sparred with President Trump, blocked commonsense reforms, and failed to deliver on redistricting efforts Democrats were intent on seeing through in their own states, got shown the door. Between @TPAction and our incredible grassroots activists paired with a great game plan from Team Trump, they proved the formula: knock doors RELENTLESSLY and hold officials accountable. Deep red states no longer get a pass. Conservatives are done carrying dead weight. The purge of weak leadership has begun, and it will only accelerate.

@assface_burner Mr.Assface you and your hedge connection have been bearish for awhile. It’s got to work at some point

The shooting star to start the reversal will be today Friday was the fakeout

@SeaKingOptions The IV is insane. But they’re up over 1,100% this last year

$AAOI has had nonstop call flow for like 3 weeks, they report tomorrow

@The_RockTrading Incredible

@A_KonMan no.

$PLTR beat and fell 3% in premarket. Pinterest surged 17% on guidance. AMD reports after the close. The Department of War holds a press conference at 8am. ISM Services, JOLTS, and new home sales land at 10am. The recovery in futures is real. So is the 30-year above 5%. One of those reads is wrong by the close. $SPY

@The_RockTrading -5% tomorrow

$PLTR had an outstanding quarter.

@FL0WG0D Did these get sold?

$2.1 million into these $PLTR calls

@TraderJonesy Idk events might null a move back up

Anyone else going to dip buy $SPY at 710? 👋 Target will be back up at 720-724. Been waiting patiently for a dip to buy. Will they give it to us? #SPX #SP500

@The_RockTrading I THOUGHT EBAY WAS BUYING GAMESTOP

*GAMESTOP OFFERING TO BUY EBAY FOR $125 A SHARE: WSJ

@thetechlao You’re on a good path, a very controlled @JohnLoc18

new chapter. starting monday. the $5k → $10k challenge. here's why i'm doing this and what it means. after everything i shared this week — the $7k loss, the honest post, the conversations with people i trust — i made a decision. i withdrew $15k from my trading account. i'm keeping $5k to trade with. not because i can't handle more. because i've proven to myself that i can't handle more responsibly yet. and that's an important distinction. the problem was never the system. the problem was me deploying my entire buying power every chance i got. i have a tendency to deploy my full buying power. when i have $20k available, my brain finds a way to use it. even when the rules say not to. the campaigns stay the same. the levels stay the same. the rules stay the same. but now the ceiling is real and it's low enough that i have to be selective. the challenge: → trade $5k account only → when it hits $10k — withdraw $5k profit into long term portfolio → start from $5k again → repeat one of the most important things i've learned is that every trader needs to know what kind of trader they are. and when the data tells you something about yourself — you have to listen. my data told me i have a tendency to overuse buying power. this is my answer to that. if you struggle with the same thing — oversizing, deploying too much, going all in when conviction is high — maybe this challenge is for you too. it’s about proving i can follow the rules consistently at a size that doesn’t destroy me when i don’t. starting monday. building in public. same transparency as always. same $spy 0dte. let's go.

@JohnLoc18 LIVE BY THE PUT OR DIE BY THE PUT

$SPY This is my positions so far, bought at 723-724. Have a good weekend everyone.

@thetechlao Insane accuracy

Waiting for 712.3 PML first touch $spy 0dte 713c

@assface_burner Thank you Mr. Assface Unchained, I take these incredibly serious

There will be no deal Ceasefire will not be extended Consider yourself warned. Again.

@KyleDuPreez3 @TraderJonesy How long is he supposed to keep conviction? I think he has late May puts, you’re saying he should have already sold those at a loss? On avg it seems his signals have been right. Is his conviction in them misleading?

@A_KonMan @TraderJonesy Which is wherein lies the problem. He's posted his signal, the trend is going against it and now he's using selective proof to support his call. To me, it comes across as "sorry my signals are wrong but here is unrelated 'evidence' as to why they should be right"

The #SP500 just hit a new all time high recently. Bitcoin is 40% below its peak. Every time this setup has shown up in the last decade, stocks crashed within weeks. Here's my take. Delphi Digital ran the numbers across 5 years. Every major reversal in $BTC preceded the reversal in major equity indices. Tops averaged 48 days ahead. Bottoms averaged 10 days ahead. Not a pattern I'm inventing. It's measured. 2017-2018. $BTC topped around $20k on Dec 17, 2017. The #SP500 topped Jan 26, 2018. BTC led by 42 days. Stocks kept ripping on the tax cut bid for six more weeks, then Volmageddon hit and the S&P dropped 10% in nine days. By year-end it was down about 20%. Then BTC bottomed around $3,200 in December 2018, eight days before the S&P's Christmas Eve low. Led down, led back up. Feb 2020. $BTC local top around $10,500 on Feb 13. The #SP500 top Feb 19. Only six days but BTC was still first. Then COVID torched everything. The real tell was the bottom. BTC bottomed March 12 at $3,850. S&P bottomed March 23. BTC led the generational low by 11 days. Now the one that matters. Nov 2021 to Jan 2022. $BTC topped at $69k on Nov 10. The #SP500 topped at 4,818 on Jan 4. BTC led by 55 days. For nearly two months Bitcoin was bleeding while the S&P was printing fresh all-time highs. The bulls called it divergence. They called it decoupling. They said BTC would catch up. They got run over. $BTC went from 69k to 15,500. Down 77%. The #SP500 went from 4,818 to 3,577. Down 25%. The "BTC is lagging, stocks are strong" take that's being pushed right now is the exact take from late 2021. I'll give the bulls one counterexample. 2014. $BTC fell all year, the #SP500 climbed all year, no equity crash. But 2014 was post Mt. Gox, pre institutional crypto. No ETFs, no Wall Street, no correlation. BTC was a fringe asset reacting to its own scandals. Today BTC is a $1.5T asset with $170B in US ETFs, sitting on corporate balance sheets, correlated 0.5 to 0.88 with stocks. It's the liquidity signal now. It wasn't then. Here's where we are. $BTC topped at $126k on Oct 6, 2025. It's at $75k now. Down 40%. The #SP500 hit 7,022 on April 15, 2026. Fresh all time high. Bitcoin peaked 196 days ago. The historical lead time is 48. The lag isn't breaking the pattern, the lag is abnormally long, which historically means the snap is going to be harder, not softer. And the confirmation is already showing up. CoinDesk last month ran a piece titled "Bitcoin crashed first, now stocks follow, cementing BTC's lead indicator cred." Iran conflict, oil spike, Asian indices rolling over, European indices rolling over, gold near record highs. US equities are the last holdout. The last holdout always takes the worst of it. The reason this works isn't mysterious. #Bitcoin is the most liquidity sensitive asset on earth. No earnings, no dividends, no cash flows, no defensive use case. The only thing that moves it is marginal global liquidity and marginal risk appetite. Stocks have buybacks, 401k flows, earnings support. Equities can levitate for weeks after the liquidity has already turned. But the plumbing underneath is the same. Eventually stocks have to respect what BTC already priced in. The bull case is "this cycle is different, ETFs, institutions, $BTC is maturing." That's the same script from November 2021. Tesla buying. El Salvador legal tender. MicroStrategy accumulating. Institutional adoption. This time is different. Result was minus 77%. The only other way this plays out is $BTC and stocks are now so correlated that BTC can't decouple, in which case the equity drop is just delayed, not cancelled. Either read is bearish. History doesn't repeat but it rhymes, and this one is getting loud.