Lowcap Connoisseur.

I think $NFLX should be viewed as a high quality staple. People pay their Netflix bill regardless of their financial situation. There’s an old saying that people pay their cable bill before their mortgage. That $20/mo isn’t gonna make a big difference financially but it gives you something to look forward to. They shouldn’t need to be growing 15% to sustain a 20x multiple. Many high quality staples trade at 25x+ with basically no growth. High margin, high ROIC, decent moat, defensive cash flows, growing 15% should be trading 30x+ and if that 15% drops to 5-10% it’s still undervalued imo

$OUST – robotics and physical AI opportunity is great, but I believe its traffic management business could become one of its strongest long-term opportunities. One thing I realised while sitting in traffic is how valuable this technology could be in the UK. Many traffic lights still operate using fixed timings or outdated road sensors. They do not always understand how much traffic is building up, how many pedestrians are waiting or which direction needs priority. Ouster’s BlueCity system places lidar sensors above an intersection. These sensors create a live 3D view of every car, pedestrian and cyclist approaching the lights. The software then sends that information to the existing traffic controller, allowing the lights to respond to actual road conditions instead of relying solely on fixed timers. For example, the system can keep a green light open longer when traffic is heavy, give pedestrians more time to cross, detect someone running a red light and identify vehicles travelling in the wrong direction. Ouster’s Rev8 sensors can detect road users from up to 500 feet away and continue working in darkness and difficult weather conditions. The opportunity becomes much easier to understand when you think about how many intersections exist around the world. Congestion costs cities billions, wastes fuel and creates unnecessary emissions. Poorly managed intersections also increase the risk of accidents involving drivers, cyclists and pedestrians. BlueCity is already working in real environment. Ouster has contracted deployments across nearly 700 sites, including more than 120 intersections in Chattanooga, more than 100 in Nashville, more than 100 in Utah and over 40 highway locations in New Jersey. Plus, BlueCity now complies with Build America, Buy America requirements. This means US cities and transport departments can use federal funding to purchase the system. That removes an important barrier because many large public infrastructure projects depend on government funding. For us investors, it's important to understand that Ouster is not simply selling a lidar sensor once. It can generate revenue from the sensors, edge-computing equipment and software licences. Once BlueCity is installed across a city’s traffic network, Ouster could also benefit from further expansion as more intersections are added over time. This could create a sticky business. Cities are unlikely to replace an entire traffic management system regularly once it is installed and integrated. A successful deployment in one part of a city could also make it easier for Ouster to win additional intersections and larger contracts. So, the long-term opportunity is very clear. Ouster has technology that can help cities reduce congestion, improve road safety and modernise outdated infrastructure. The robotics and physical AI opportunity remains the core thesis, but BlueCity could become one of the company’s strongest and most scalable businesses.

2 days ago I posted about why the Open USD selloff in $CRCL was the wrong read. That banks launching a competing stablecoin was actually the thing that legitimizes the entire category, not the thing that kills Circle. Then this happened. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the same federal agency that charters JPMorgan, Bank of America, and every major national bank in America, just approved Circle to establish its own national trust bank. Legally named First National Digital Currency Bank, N.A. Doing business as Circle National Trust. This is the thing I was trying to describe in my last post but couldn’t name yet because it hadn’t happened. The process of Circle becoming indistinguishable from regulated banking infrastructure just completed its most important step. Before today, Circle operated under a patchwork of state money transmitter licenses, 50 different regulatory frameworks, 50 different compliance requirements, 50 different counterparty risk assessments every institutional investor had to run before touching USDC. That friction is exactly why conservative institutional capital has stayed on the sideline. That friction is now gone. One federal charter. Direct OCC oversight. The same legal framework that governs the most trusted custodians of institutional capital in the country. And then there’s what comes next. Compass Point expects Circle and Coinbase to renew their USDC partnership in August, the single biggest valuation overhang on this stock right now. Nomura just announced a partnership to launch instant FX settlement in Japan using USDC by 2027. Standard Chartered became the first Global Systemically Important Bank to offer USDC minting and redemption to institutional clients. BNY Mellon already lets clients hold USDC in custody. JPMorgan. Standard Chartered. BNY Mellon. Nomura. Coinbase renewal pending. The banks didn’t launch Open USD to kill Circle. They launched it to get a seat at the table in a category Circle built. And Circle just pulled so far ahead on the regulatory infrastructure race that the competition has to work significantly harder to catch up. 2 days ago I said the banks validating stablecoins was bullish for Circle. And now the federal government made Circle a bank. That’s the follow up I didn’t know was coming lol.