@AdamMancini4 Adam, just curious if you ever use moving averages or do volume analysis?
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Aaron
131 posts
Big Picture View #ES_F: As posted last Saturday, since May 13th, ES built a massive inverse H&S pattern with 5850 support & 6k neckline. On Friday, ES attempted breakout
Plan Next Week: 6k, 5975=supports. As long as above; 6056, 6072, 6170=targets. 5975 fails, dip 5920-25, 5850
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Aaron retweetledi
Volume profile is the closest thing to a trading cheat code.
But 99% of traders don’t know how to use it properly
Here’s how to turn it into your unfair advantage & start printing money:
🧵
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@GiamundoMichele @AdamMancini4 Tips: volume-price analysis can help with the entry
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@AdamMancini4 This time I was diligently waiting for acceptance but it went straight up… 😅 so still waiting for an entry point
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Smooth start to the day and we got a Failed Breakdown off the bat with precise target hits. The 5925 Failed Breakdown - as posted 8am - had 5934, 5945, 5963 targets. We hit 5963 exact. Sit on runner, do nothing now
5970 if #ES_F wants more, then breakout 6k+. 5925, 5900=supports
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Quick work to start to the day in #ES_F & the 5925 level remains a critical magnet. I posted 5925 had to reclaim to target 5934, then 5945. It didn't take long, and we hit 45. *Protect majority gains here, leave lotto runner* 5963, 5970 if ES wants more. 5925, 5900 now supports
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Aaron retweetledi
Aaron retweetledi
Before I take a trade, I ask 3 questions: 1) Was this trade preplanned? 2) Does it correspond to one of my 3 setup types? 3) Is volatility/time of day good or is it chop? If the answers aren't yes, its a pass. Profitability requires eliminating forced, impulsive, 50/50 trades
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@AdamMancini4 Thanks for the info! Zoom out does give you a better big picture!
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@AaronOldmoon Thats my default time frame but I'll go lower sometimes if I'm going to take a trade down to 30min or 15min. Never under 15mins though. The choppier price is the more I like to stay zoomed out though
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Clean session in #ES_F. 5686 and 5699 were today's supports, to setup a rally to todays 5750-55 target. We held 5686, ran to 5750-55 target for the 3rd test this week. We are building a huge base 5750-5686 to setup next trend
5720 support. 5770+ stretch target. Leg down<5686
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Its been a good day and now we are into mid-day chop in #ES_F and today's plan played out. 5699 and 5686 were supports to keep 5750-55 target live. We held 5686 exact, ran to 5750-55. Shut platform down, hold runner. 5770, 5787, 5795 remain stretch targets. Same supports
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@AdamMancini4 You are probably the only account that I know of is sharing the true knowledge of profitable trading. I hope you don’t stop doing that. I think even in your life, know what not to do is as important (if not more) as knowing what to do.
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Many traders struggle to profit because they are generalists. Having an edge means being a hyper-specialist. A small niche (For me, 3 setups in ES) that you know better than 99% of people, have drilled 1000x & can wait all day for. You wont beat the algos as a jack of all trades
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@AdamMancini4 Adam, could you please send the closing updates as a standalone twitter? I only have your posts subscribed in notification. Always missed the closing updates.
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As posted, 5965 fail would work us down to 5951, then 5938-42 in #ES_F, and arriving now. These are A+ conditions we've had with multiple large swings daily (70-100 point range ranges). Now down 100 points from todays 6043 target.
5965 must recover now to rally. 5918 next down
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
After tagging 6043-46 target where I warned to lock in gains bears took over & its been sell bounces since. 5965=support as posted & #ES_F agrees, putting in a 25 point pop, now retesting again No change. 5951, 5938-42 below. 5974 must reclaim to pop, with 6004 starting squeeze
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@TxTrader10 @OnTheHooch @AdamMancini4 I think it is more attractive now if we reclaim 6004. The previous reclaim, we did pop to 6008, but it was only 4 pts.
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@TxTrader10 @OnTheHooch @AdamMancini4 I took a small loss as well. But something I learned is that it is bear control, it is big red bar, so best don’t fight the trend. For big read bars, it is better to wait for the dust to set and patiently wait for a previous breakdown level. Now that 6004 has been tested 2~3 tim
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As written in newsletter, downtrending action like we've had since Dec 18 does two things: 1) It goes 'elevator down' (what we just saw which are short, vertical sells) and 2) It short squeezes. These cycle endlessly.
6004 must reclaim to pop, same supports below as prior tweet
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@AdamMancini4 Thanks! Will do the same. I really do see the less I trade the more I make in my own trading journal!
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@AaronOldmoon No trades for me today unless we sell back down to the planned zones in the newsletter. Already got paid! Working on tomorrows plan now
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Incredible start & targets already hitting. Thursday, longs triggered in #ES_F on the huge Failed Breakdown of 5918-23. Plan since then was simple as posted: Get long, and stay long. +116 points now
Plan: *Protect gains here*, res 6038. 6049, 6070=next. 6016=support, dip below
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
We are now up 77 points from the 5923-17 long trigger in #ES_F a setup provided all day yesterday here + in newsletter. This is my bread and butter trade: Flush of a support cluster (23-17), recover, long. Keep riding runners. 5997 next target just hit. 6004, 6016 next up
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@AdamMancini4 Adam, you mentioned “occurred directly from here and without recovering 5951 first.” We touched 5951, does that count as “recovering 5951” in this case?
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Late day pop to wrap up the 2024 trading year. I wrote 34mins ago that #ES_F may get another late day test of 5945-50 and we just tagged it. This is very choppy, slow holiday trading. Over-trade in this, lose money.
5966, 5987 next if ES wants more. 5928-33 remains support.
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Slow, choppy holiday trading continues in #ES_F and as warned all day, don't overtrade noise. Trade when vol is high and price is clean. No change: 5945-50 must recover to squeeze, may get another late day test of it. 5928-32=support which is all chop now. 5916, 5907 below
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@AdamMancini4 @RHill305 Happy New Year, Adam! Thanks for all your sharing!
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@RHill305 As I've said daily since Dec 18th, bears fully control now
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@AdamMancini4 @TxTrader10 I see. Is it also because it is not a range that has been tested like 5 or 10 times?
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@AaronOldmoon @TxTrader10 It does but have to read the context - we are in a very choppy condition today, we already sold 50 points into this zone, bears dont seem to have good conviction. It may work, but not something I'm risking my money on
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New years chop continues in #ES_F but the lvls continue to respect well. As posted, 5945-50 would be what bulls must reclaim to see any sustained push, and we just tested it *exactly* & rejected.
No change: No sustained push until it recovers. 5916, 5907 next below the lows
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Its been a choppy session today (likely due to holiday effect in #ES_F), but levels respecting well. 5945-50 was res as posted, which bulls need to reclaim to resume up, and its acted precisely as resistance. 5928-32=support also as posted. Just tested. Fail there, we sell 5907
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@AdamMancini4 @TxTrader10 But it seems that it meets the criteria? It had a bounce and dropped to 5921? Where would you put the stop if you were shorting ?
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@TxTrader10 I won't be shorting here as this zone is too choppy for me, but I've discussed the breakdown short quite abit recently. They should work quite quickly once there is clear structure
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@AdamMancini4 @CapitalSpartan Adam, are we forming a bullish hidden divergence and lower high in rsi now?
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Very quick work on this in #ES_F as we continue working up the lvls off yesterday mornings test of the 5886 "ATM Machine" level. Today's targets were 5960 (hit), 5971 (hit) and day has not even started. Lock in partials here, leave runners
5980, 5988 (big res) next. 5942=support
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
This week has been all about 1 level in #ES_F: The 5886 "ATM Machine". Bulls control above, bears below. Late day yesterday I was looking for a rally to 5908, 5922, 5942+, we got here & beyond Plan today: 5942=support (weak). Keeps 5960, 5971+ live. 42 fails, dip 5932, 5908-11
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