Aberdacho
24 posts
Si llevas $ASTS en tu cartera, debes llevar unos días con una cara muy parecida a esta cada vez que entras al broker…
Y al igual que me ocurre a mí,
tu cerebro de adicto al mercado no dejará de repetirte:
Es el momento de asegurar beneficios antes de que sea tarde!!!!!
Ha llegado el momento de vender parte de la posición??
Te cuento lo que yo voy a hacer justo aquí 👇🏻
elyonkidelosmercados.substack.com/p/asts-sube-si…
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@aleabitoreddit x.com/KobeissiLetter…, Is this situation covered in the analyses? Thank you.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
China is reducing its reliance on foreign AI chips: China's AI chip self-sufficiency ratio is up to a record 41%. This measures the proportion of domestic AI chip demand met by locally produced chips, rather than imported ones. This ratio has QUADRUPLED over the last 5 years. The AI chip self-sufficiency ratio is now projected to more than DOUBLE to ~85% by 2030, according to Morgan Stanley. In other words, China could meet nearly all of its own AI chip demand domestically within 5 years. China's AI chip independence is accelerating.
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When I see comments like this (and there are a lot) from retail investors:
I immediately think they lack the technical depth.
I'll walk through each one from $SIVE to $LPK:
1. Photonics TAM goes from $14B -> $154B In just two years time, and it's likely going to keep scaling past 2030 as it's the next generation architecture of choice.
It's not going away in 1 year. It's not going away in 3 years, which is why $LITE premiums keep going higher since they're backlogged into 2028.
$SIVE supplies CW lasers and is highly tethered to CPO and now pluggable transcivers for 1.6T and 3.2...
For expected companies like $JBL, Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, $MRVL Celestial, and $AMD.
This isn't a "trade", it's the core chokepoint and IP holder for the next generation of photonics.
And it's a comfortable hold for the next few years as they scale to become the next $LITE.
The risk I personally see (since they're already qualified with so many players), it's mainly how much TAM they can capture of the overall optical supercycle. (And potential risks with Win Semi volume ramp, but Win is massive so I can sleep tightly there).
As just supplying lasers isn't enough to justify valuation.
It's TAM expansion downward into making the entire ELS or entire pluggable transceiver that makes these laser companies so valuable.
Then afterward, they can vertically integrating upward for gross margin expansion upward like $COHR into doing the laser fabs or even substrate level.
And that in my view is a very asymmetric risk/reward ratio as we've already seen this done with $LITE as they went from $2B to $80B.
2. $LPK - Is the purest exposure, without the messy financials of SKC Absolics, as the next advanced packaging shift for glass substrates.
Almost every single major semi company from $INTC to Samsung are adopting glass substrates.
$LPK is basically $ASML of this chokepoint, since they supply to ~80% of the global players currently.
Yes, there's "trade cycles" for equipment suppliers like $ASML, where if there's more foundry capex, ASML scales up. But if there's downturns, these tend to perform poorly, and don't capture all the volume ramp that happens after.
However, if the MC is $650m and they're making $100-200M, revenue per costumer volume ramped, the amount they make from the glass substrate cycle will likely exceed current valuations.
And they'll have baseline fundamentals (as more companies adopt the packaging shift), that keeps their valuation up.
It's just a waiting game for volume ramp at this point.
3. $AAOI - This is literally $INTC but for America + Photonics. It's like saying Intel is not a long term investment.
Guess where all your optical transcivers are made?
China. Thailand. Malaysia. If you look at Innolight, Eoptolink, $FN, and others.
AOI is building the largest Made in America supply chains for both CW laser fab, as well as 800g, 1.6T assembly.
Yes, there are pluggable cycle ups and downs to this as well. There's going to be a wave for 1.6T next year, then CPO cannibalizes pluggables down the road.
But since they make the entire supply chain in house, they have extreme optionality for other segments. And like $NVDA older gen-GPUs, there's going to be sovereign DC requirements for older gen pluggables from names like $AAOI.
It's likely going to keep rising as it hits that $400m+/month revenue target H2 2026.
There's just a lot of different short term volatility along the way like the $600m dilution.
4. $IQE - ??? It's one of the most important players in the Western word for epiwafers.
$MTSI went out of their way to pay off IQE's debt because they can't have them going under. $IQE is also supplying to $LITE.
The world is currently bottlenecked both on the epiwafer level from Landmark comments and InP substrate levels.
Their financials were track but the raw book value, and value they hold to the entire Western supply chain... completely justifies their valuation. And other optical companies will not let their core upstream supply chain go under.
As these tens of millions worth of materials would screw up tens of billions worth of downstream products.
Again photonics is the next generation architecture required to scale AI. It's not Quantum where it's just "In development".
It's literally here and the architecture of choice by $NVDA.
I would not be surprised if all of these are a lot higher in 3-4 years time.
People who think it's one and done in 3 months time "only because I mentioned it" don't know what they're talking about.
Institutions would have bought up the name eventually (like Point 72 on $IQE) and retail would only find out after their valuations are 600% higher.
Should really do the research before adding comments like these:
These are all forward growth companies that require in-depth supply chain knowledge.
Sancet@Million_Sancet
This is my current portfolio As I said, I wouldn't sell any positions And I’ve kept my word, the money for the new position in $PENG does not come from my existing investments At the moment, I don’t see better opportunities in the market than what is already in my portfolio At least not at these prices I have on my radar things like $KOPN $DGXX $SOI etc
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Marzo 2025: Primer análisis de $NBIS
Diciembre 2025: Caídas del -40% en los data centers y escribo un artículo reafirmando mi tesis.
Mayo 2026: $NBIS supera los $200 🚀🔥
Que orgullo!
Ruth Lazkoz@ruthlazkoz
@InversorNovato_ Algunos de tus seguidores superamos el 400%
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🚨 EARNINGS de AST SpaceMobile
$ASTS
• EPS de ($0.66) ❌
Esperado de ($0.20)
BAJA un -230% YoY 🔴
• Ingresos de $14.73M ❌
Esperados de $36.58M
SUBEN un +1900% YoY 🟢
La cotización CAE un -6% 🔴
Hasta que veamos nuevos lanzamientos de satélites no llegarán buenos números.
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Peak download speed 98.9 Mbps. From space. With our Block 1 satellites.
Direct to a standard smartphone over international waters. No modifications. No new hardware.
Next-generation satellites expected to nearly double these speeds!
Built in Texas. Space-based cellular broadband. Connecting everywhere. 🌎📶📱
#ASTSpaceMobile #Broadband #ConnectingtheUnconnected #BlueBirds
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BOOM 💥
ESPECTACULAR semana de RESULTADOS.
Tenemos:
LUNES - $HIMS $ASTS $MOS $RGTI
MARTES - $OKLO $ONON
MIÉRCOLES - $NBIS $BABA $CSCO $USAR
JUEVES - $ONDS $BN $NU
¿Cuáles te interesan? ⬇️
Sígueme, hablaremos de ellos por aquí ✅
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$100,000, 2 stocks.
Which pair would make you the most money in the next 5 out of these 16 names?
1. $META
2. $ASTS
3. $ONDS
4. $AMZN
5. $SOFI
6. $IREN
7. $PLTR
8. $GOOGL
9. $HIMS
10. $MSFT
11. $HOOD
12. $NBIS
13. $RKLB
13. $ADUR
14. $ZETA
15. $AMD
16. $OSCR
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“El S&P 500 está carísimo comparado con su media histórica…”
¿Seguro?
Aquí hay algo que mucha gente no está ajustando cuando compara el PER actual del S&P 500 con el de hace 20 o 30 años.
El índice de hoy NO tiene nada que ver con el de antes.
Antes estaba lleno de:
petroleras, industriales, automoción, bancos o telecomunicaciones pesadas.
¿Tiene sentido comparar un S&P a 22x PER hoy con uno a 15x en 1990 sin ajustar nada?
Para mí, no.
Porque no estamos comparando el mismo tipo de empresas ni la misma calidad de negocios.
Una empresa creciendo al 15%, con márgenes del 30% y un ROIC del 40%, probablemente merece cotizar a múltiplos mucho más altos que una industrial creciendo al 3%.
La valoración histórica importa, claro.
Pero usar únicamente “la media histórica del PER” sin analizar:
• composición del índice
• calidad de los negocios
• márgenes agregados
• crecimiento esperado
• recompras
• peso del software y activos intangibles
…puede llevar a conclusiones bastante equivocadas.
El mercado puede estar caro o barato.
Pero el análisis hay que hacerlo completo, no solo mirando una línea histórica sin contexto.
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Empresas que queréis ver analizadas por mí en invirtiendoME …
Os leo
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$IREN is one deal away from burning out the shorts.
> Acquired MIRANTIS to cover the software layer that it was lacking. And this puts it on the same playing field as $NBIS now.
There's no doubt that $IREN has the physical layer covered. In terms of data centers, they've got;
• 810 MW operational
• 2.1 GW under construction
• 1.6 GW in development
• >4.5 GW power secured across North America.
This is important because these data centers powers every link in the AI stack like;
> GPU Clusters (AI training + inference)
> Cooling Systems (huge for AI racks)
> Networking + Storage
All of these are needed in the AI infrastructure chain.
But what is even more interesting is during Q2 FY2026 earnings call, the CEO said this:
"To give you additional comfort, one of the contracts we are negotiating at the moment is a multi-billion-dollar contract where we need to bring a software solution."
The next earnings date is on the 7th of May.
On the 5th of May, they announced acquisition of MIRANTIS, a SOFTWARE company that is
> A founding ISV partner in the NVIDIA AI Cloud Ready Initiative.
> Where $NVDA approved Mirantis software to run on AI cloud infrastructure built on NVIDIA GPUs.
I mean this is too close of a coincidence right...?
Before MIRANTIS, $IREN was simply just about power + data centers + GPUs.
Now? It's joined the cloud software + enterprise support stack.
Earnings should be very interesting tomorrow and I am planning to add dips on every drop unless something changes in the thesis.
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$ASTS has received a lot of good news recently with SCS approval and expanded partnerships. The stock has not reacted positively.
I’m starting to think only the actual launch of satellites will make it get a bid.
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For the next 5 years, I’d rather have:
$HIMS > $NVO
$SOFI > $HOOD
$ZETA > $TTD
$NBIS > $CRWV
$IREN > $CIFR
$ONDS > $KTOS
$OSCR > $UNH
$GOOGL > entire Magnificent 7
Agree or disagree?
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A Donald Trump no le conviene una guerra larga en Oriente Medio.
Aquí mis razones:
• Bajar los Tipos de Interés para aliviar la deuda.
• Precios bajos del petróleo para controlar la inflación.
• El 3 de noviembre son las elecciones de medio mandato en Estados Unidos.a
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$LDI esta regalado cabros!
No dejen pasar estas oportunidades ✨️😎💪 así como también lo están $ASST y $MSTR
AlphaSense@AlphaSenseInc
$RKT Earnings: - Generated Q4'25 total revenue, net of $2.69 billion and adjusted revenue of $2.44 billion. Adjusted revenue came in above the high end of our guidance range. - Reported Q4'25 GAAP net income of $68 million and adjusted net income of $316 million. - Delivered Q4'25 adjusted EBITDA of $592 million. "Rocket proved itself this quarter as a category of one. This is the power of an integrated homeownership ecosystem - massive top of funnel, scaled origination-servicing recapture, expansive distribution for industry professionals and a technologically advanced foundation for infinite capacity - built for the AI era," said Varun Krishna, CEO and Director of Rocket Companies. "We exceeded guidance in a quarter that closed out a transformational year. I'm so proud of how the Rocket, Mr. Cooper, and Redfin teams executed together." research.alpha-sense.com/?docid=PR-e5ae…
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Buenas tardes $OPEN
Dónde están los bajistas de ayer?
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