Acranum

Quick update on HYPE: We were initially positioned to reload sub-$17 to get ready for next cycle. But the framework has now materially changed. From a game theory perspective, the magnitude of the upside deviation should ultimately be mirrored by the magnitude of the downside reversion. In other words, the more reflexive and overextended the move becomes on the way up, the higher the probability of a violent overshoot to the downside. Our base case now is that HYPE cannot just revisit the $17-20 range anymore at this stage sadly, it will ultimately overextend well below $10 before establishing a true long-term cycle low. More importantly, the entire structure has now shifted. The $17-20 region is no longer looking like the optimal reload zone for the next expansion phase. Instead, there’s an increasing probability that this range ultimately becomes the distribution ceiling of the next cycle itself. We’ve seen this exact reflexive pattern play out before, EOS during the post-2018 unwind, LINK after its macro euphoric expansion. What once looked like “value accumulation” eventually became lower-high exit liquidity in the following cycle. Very interesting. So essentially, remove your HYPE orders around $17. That level is too obvious now after the expansion, which means you will get front-run by the market before any meaningful reversal materializes. We will keep you posted once HYPE forms a new bottom sub $10 (probably around $7-8) We will find the bottom together, and there should be a nice long to do, until the relief back to $17-20. Not guaranted that HYPE bounces back to $20, but highly highly likely This sould be an easy 2-2.5x at least And with leverage, we could probably pull a 10x Please be patient, we will revert in a few months For now, short only

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