Sabitlenmiş Tweet
Adrian Calamel
30.7K posts

Adrian Calamel
@AdrianCalamel
Terrorism & Middle Eastern Scholar | VP Research Viking Strategies | https://t.co/GUIbLAyTx9 | Forthcoming Book on Hezbollah. (Buffalonian Geordie 🇺🇸🇬🇧)
Katılım Şubat 2019
1.1K Takip Edilen6K Takipçiler
Adrian Calamel retweetledi

Years ago, I visited Al-Aqsa.
From Al-Aqsa, according to the Quran, Muhammad ascended to heaven and into God's presence.
Respecting its great significance to the Muslim faith, Israel has kept it open and secure.
Iran's terrorist regime, conversely, just nearly destroyed it.
OSINTtechnical@Osinttechnical
Footage of an Iranian ballistic missile fragment hitting the old city of Jerusalem, falling roughly 400 yards from the Western Wall and Al-Aqsa.
English
Adrian Calamel retweetledi

BREAKING BREAKING
ONE DAY AFTER SUDANI’S APPEARANCE WITH MILITIA LEADERS AND HIS VISIT TO THE PMF, IRAN-BACKED PROXY MILITIAS ARE ESCALATING.
A video now shows a major drone attack targeting the American base at Camp Victory. Today’s escalation leaves no room for ambiguity.
The message is becoming unmistakably clear: Prime Minister Sudani is enabling these militias. The Iraqi government is effectively funding armed groups that are launching attacks against American forces, Gulf countries, and the Kurdistan Region.
Sudani’s true face is now fully exposed.
The United States must hold Sudani accountable to the fullest extent.

English
Adrian Calamel retweetledi

White House @PressSec Karoline Leavitt reposted my @FNCGlobalNews dispatch on the Islamic Republic's public hanging of 19-year-old champion wrestler Saleh Mohammadi because he protested against @khamenei_ir's totalitarian regime in January.
Thus far the @iocmedia @Olympics @wrestling have refused to comment on IRI's murder of Mohammadi.
By way of background, in 2020,I broke the story @FoxNews that the Khamenei regime executed innocent Iranian Greco-Roman champion wrestler Navid Afkari for participating in a demonstration against the theocratic state.

English
Adrian Calamel retweetledi

Explosive intel brief by the Network Contagion Research Institute (@ncri_io) uncovers Iranian influence ecosystem mobilized on US soil.
“Iranian state-aligned media outlets maintain sustained engagement with a small, ideologically aligned cluster of U.S.-based activists. These activists, in turn, organize demonstrations and produce on-the-ground content that is rapidly ingested, repackaged, and redistributed across aligned media platforms such as Press TV and Vox Ummah.
The result is a readily deployable feedback cycle in which localized protest activity is transformed into globally disseminated narrative material portraying domestic opposition to U.S. policy.
This model offers several strategic advantages over more traditional influence operations.
First, it leverages domestic actors and constitutionally protected activity, allowing influence to be embedded within legitimate political expression. This significantly complicates detection and response, as the observable behaviors – protest organization, media appearances, and political advocacy – are practically indistinguishable on their face from lawful civic engagement.
Second, the system is scalable and low-cost. It does not depend on mass mobilization; as Che Marino observed in 2025, “We shut down… Times Square with a relatively small crew” (Figure 6, left). Demonstrated by the March 6 vigil, relatively small on-the-ground events can generate disproportionate impact when amplified through coordinated media ecosystems, reaching tens of millions of impressions and penetrating mainstream Western media coverage. In this model, perception of scale matters more than actual turnout, enabling small networks to project the appearance of widespread domestic dissent.
Third, the integration of intermediary platforms such as Vox Ummah collapses the boundary between activism and media. By republishing activist statements as editorial content and coordinating distribution across aligned outlets, these platforms function as force multipliers, extending the reach, legitimacy, and persistence of messaging generated within the activist network.
Importantly, the temporal relationship between Press TV outreach and subsequent protest activity suggests that this ecosystem is not purely reactive. While the available evidence does not establish direct tasking, the consistent lead-lag pattern indicates that state-aligned media engagement is positioned upstream of mobilization cycles, enabling it to shape, prime, or amplify domestic protest environments during periods of geopolitical relevance.
Taken together, these dynamics point to a shift in how foreign influence can be conducted within open societies. Rather than relying on covert control or centralized direction, this model exploits alignment, access, and amplification. Influence emerges not from explicit coordination, but from the structured interaction of actors who share ideological orientation, communication channels, and media infrastructure.
This creates a persistent strategic vulnerability. Because the system operates through legitimate civic mechanisms, it is inherently resilient to disruption and difficult to attribute definitively. At the same time, its outputs – high-visibility protests, viral media narratives, and perceived domestic dissent – can contribute to polarization, erode public trust, and impose political pressure during periods of international conflict.”
Full Report: networkcontagion.us/wp-content/upl…

English
Adrian Calamel retweetledi

Nearly three weeks into war, Israeli PM sees 'cracks' in Tehran
Netanyahu: Iranian attempt to close Strait of Hormuz would fail
Netanyahu says Israel is 'winning' the Iran war
Terrorism Scholar @AdrianCalamel join @JyotsnaKumar13 and
@AadhyaJunejaa to share insights
English

@mdubowitz It’s going to be really difficult to raise that bar. How many times have we heard this recycled phrase?
English

Are they going to become the leading, leading, leading state sponsor of terrorism? Can you go higher than first place?🥇☠️
Christiane Amanpour@amanpour
“We are manufacturing a whole new generation of terrorists in the Middle East,” former U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel tells me, saying the Trump administration's conduct of its war in Iran appears to him unprecedented.
English

@EthanLevins2 What the hell have you been smoking to believe this is real?
Stop cheering on the ENEMIES FAKE AI.
English

@alilarijani_ir Didn’t know they had video games where you are roasting Ali?!
English

"TODAY WE WILL HIT THEM WITH A FORCE THAT THEY HAVE NEVER EXPERIENCED BEFORE." 2026/03/01
Ali Larijani | علی لاریجانی@alilarijani_ir
YESTERDAY IRAN FIRED MISSILES AT THE UNITED STATES AND ISRAEL, AND THEY DID HURT. TODAY WE WILL HIT THEM WITH A FORCE THAT THEY HAVE NEVER EXPERIENCED BEFORE.
English

@EthanLevins2 Are you playing Space Invaders on an original Atari and decided to take a screenshot?
Nice try Ethan, keep cheerleading for a regime that wants you dead.
GIF
English
Adrian Calamel retweetledi

Joint statement of France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Japan, and UK: “We express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait. We welcome the commitment of nations who are engaging in preparatory planning.” [cit. loc. UK PMO (Mar 19, 2026). gov.uk/government/new…]
—— Full Stmnt
“We condemn in the strongest terms recent attacks by Iran on unarmed commercial vessels in the Gulf, attacks on civilian infrastructure including oil and gas installations, and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces.
We express our deep concern about the escalating conflict.
We call on Iran to cease immediately its threats, laying of mines, drone and missile attacks and other attempts to block the Strait to commercial shipping, and to comply with UN Security Council Resolution 2817.
Freedom of navigation is a fundamental principle of international law, including under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
The effects of Iran’s actions will be felt by people in all parts of the world, especially the most vulnerable.
Consistent with UNSC Resolution 2817, we emphasise that such interference with international shipping and the disruption of global energy supply chains constitute a threat to international peace and security. In this regard, we call for an immediate comprehensive moratorium on attacks on civilian infrastructure, including oil and gas installations.
We express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait.
We welcome the commitment of nations who are engaging in preparatory planning.
We welcome the International Energy Agency decision to authorise a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves.
We will take other steps to stabilise energy markets, including working with certain producing nations to increase output.
We will also work to provide support for the most affected nations, including through the United Nations and the IFIs. Maritime security and freedom of navigation benefit all countries.
We call on all states to respect international law and uphold the fundamental principles of international prosperity and security."

English


The assassination of Larijani will almost certainly complicate efforts to secure a U.S.-preferred diplomatic off-ramp. thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-202…
English

Adrian Calamel retweetledi

An airstrike in Laristan targeted judiciary-related facilities and killed judicial staff. That is confirmed. But Iranian opposition accounts on the web go further. They make the unverified claim that the Prosecutor of Larestan County was killed. He's the judicial cog in the repression wheel -- working with the Basij to arrest, interrogate, try, and punish protestors.
English
Adrian Calamel retweetledi

Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz promised surprises today. They did not lie.
U.S.–Israeli strikes hit onshore processing facilities in the Asaluyeh zone—the core hub of the South Pars gas field, which produces ~70% of Iran’s natural gas. Iranian state media confirm explosions and fires.
This is a significant escalation.
South Pars underpins Iran’s domestic energy system (power generation, heating, industry) and helps to generate key foreign-exchange revenue by fueling the production of condensates and petrochemicals. Disruptions here will strain the regime internally, especially if sustained.
Strategically, this marks a shift toward targeting economic lifelines, not just military assets, with the goal of weakening regime stability.
Second-order and third-order effects:
1) Likely Iranian escalation (missiles/drones; possible strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure or shipping). Increased risk to Strait of Hormuz traffic
2) Upward pressure on global energy prices
Bottom line: this broadens the war from military degradation to systemic economic pressure on the regime.
My question is: Did the US and Israel do this because they believe that the regime no longer has an escalation option, or because they believe they can deter it by showing a willingness, never before seen, to climb the escalation ladder?
This target was carefully chosen. It does not directly effect global energy flows. Its direct impact is domestic, not foreign.
English












