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Zunda
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View over the playing field and thoughts
As we head into the 48h, I mean 72h deadline and panic spreads, I would give a breakdown on what could offer an off ramp. In war escalation is sometimes needed to deescalate while incentives start to align.
1980-88 Iran-Iraq war, the 1991 gulf war, Afghanistan… all offer insights.
Now to the present day and what we learn from the past.
First to the obvious. This war will only end with a graceful win for both ends.
Trump needs a win for the midterms, for his plummeting approval rate as well as to justify and respect the fallen soldiers and $30b+ spent on the war.
Iran needs a win for the IRGC to stand tall not only on the eyes of its country but also because of regional players in the gulf and specifically Israel. Iran has proven to have strong leverage with the strait, they will never have this opportunity again and thus will push until the end and an acceptable deal.
What is not negotiable and leverage?
Iran likely understands they will not be getting full sovereignty over Hormuz, that’s the biggest negotiating anchor to make the other demands look reasonable by comparison.
This would mean the end to the petrodollar as we know it, unacceptable for the US.
Trump’s maximalist threats about destroying power plants and desalination are the same thing from the other side.
It would plunge Iran into chaos and create extreme civil unrest, against the US but also against the IRGC which would have nothing left but rage.
This would not only destroy Iran but guarantee the gulf to be destroyed including desalination pools, energy and alike. This would be the end of the gulf as we know it. Unacceptable.
Trump is basically willing or posturing as willing to go nuclear rather than fold. He is asking for a graceful exit.
Escalate from both ends to deescalate in a high stake negotiation game. But both need to come to the table.
Time table
A large portion of what feels like unstoppable escalation and a very fast war is due to the oil supply destruction timeline.
The time is ticking with less than a week until counties, continents panic and have to ration. Each day a deal isn’t struck, allies and alike will be incentivized to cut a deal with Iran to let tankers and the oil flow. This isn’t don against the USA but truly out of self preservation.
This is why we are seeing this massive pressure right now.
Asia: April 1
Europe: April 10
North America: April 15
Australia: April 20
Recent headlines are constructive.
JUST IN: 🇮🇷 Iran demands war compensation to reopen Strait of Hormuz.
Compensations allows for both ends to save face and a lot of different parties are incentivized to do so. Effectively control of the strait has the same same in the end.
Compensations doesn’t mean straight payments, it would mean frozen Iranian assets partially getting released in exchange for Hormuz reopening against a verified nuclear commitment, which likely will end up looking like the exact Obama deal Trump tore apart during his first mandate.
Trump would frame it as “Iran surrendered their nuclear program and we got the strait open.”
Iran frames it as “we extracted a price and achieved dignity.”
Both sides claim victory.
The Gulf states, mainly Saudi, UAE, Kuwait, have every incentive to co-finance this quietly.
Now to the deal we could see.
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Why the the most profitable traders are the quietest and no one knows who they are:
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Greatness demands a price most won't pay.
ₕₐₘₚₜₒₙ@hamptonism
Game theory is the reason I wake up everyday and chase greatness.
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Emerging market currencies will tank first, sovereign credit spreads will rise, European banks will crash at the same time as global interest rates rise, food shortages will start in the fall, 3 day work weeks in Asia, copper shortage, helium/memory shortage, and generic drugs shortage if this lasts another few months
When CPI and rates rise real estate and tech stocks will crash, IPOs will halt, VC funding will freeze for everything except AI, and bankruptcies will rise, leading to unemployment and deflation by 2027, followed by global money printing and U.S. debt levels reaching $44 trillion by next year or 150pct of gdp
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Whilst it’s tempting to over-analyze every tick in asset prices right now, the reality is simpler and more structural
What we’re likely seeing isn't a "rotation", it’s a mass de-grossing as instos are taking profit and moving to the sidelines
When volatility spikes and liquidity thins, individual price action is often just the sound of portfolios being de-leveraged.
Check the latest institutional fund flow data and you will see a violent pivot toward defensive liquidity
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a former casino floor manager told me something about funded trading that I haven't been able to stop thinking about for three weeks
he wasn't a trader. never touched a chart in his life.
but when I explained how prop firms work he started laughing
"that's our model. you just described a casino. except the house is dumber."
I asked what he meant
"in a casino, the house ALWAYS has edge. every game. every table. every slot. the math guarantees we win over time. the player can get lucky on any given night but over 10,000 hands we always come out ahead."
"prop firms are the opposite. the firm has edge on the LOSING traders - they collect challenge fees from the 90% who fail. but against a trader with actual edge? the firm is the fish."
"in my casino if someone proved they could count cards we'd ban them in 20 minutes. prop firms can't do that. if you prove you have edge they have to keep paying you. every month. forever."
"you're telling me these firms give you $100,000 in capital, charge you $300 for the privilege, and then if you're actually good they just… wire you money every 30 days?"
"that's not a challenge. that's the worst casino business model I've ever heard. and I love it for you."
he broke it down further:
"the casino survives because we control the rules AND the edge. the firm only controls the rules. if your edge is real, the rules can't stop you. they just slow you down."
"your drawdown limit is just the pit boss watching your stack. your consistency rule is just the betting limit. your payout schedule is just the cage window. it's all the same architecture."
"the difference is we designed our rules to guarantee the house wins. these firms designed their rules to FILTER bad players, not to stop good ones. completely different intent. completely different outcome for you."
I asked him what he'd do if he were a funded trader
"same thing I'd tell a card counter. play the minimum number of hands at the minimum bet size until the math does its job. don't draw attention. don't get greedy. don't deviate from the count. the edge compounds on its own if you stop interfering with it."
"your model is the count. your session is the shoe. your risk is the bet size. play it boring and the house pays you forever."
he finished his drink and said:
"the guys losing at your prop firms are doing the same thing the guys losing at my tables do. they KNOW the math. they just can't sit still long enough to let the math work."
I went home and cut my session from 3 hours to 90 minutes the next morning
passed a challenge 16 days later
the casino floor manager who never traded taught me more about funded trading in one conversation than a year of YouTube ever did
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@Mr_Fibanocci @captain_kole puetz window closing is basically the final pump before the real selling begins
it takes around 2 weeks to 8 weeks for a final bottom
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Time to pay attention.
48h before the Puetz window closes.
Zoran Kole@captain_kole
3 levels I'm watching for intra-week trades next few weeks.
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@lBattleRhino Last time your long tweet bottomed the chart at 60k. do it AGAIN!
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I need 20-30 people to test out a new product I’ve been working on.
Your account will be funded and all the money you make you can keep.
I want YOU to hit a 7 figure PNL.
Reply if interested, preferably people with trading experience or people that like to test new products.
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@AkashZunda @BittexXBT Haha I wouldn’t put much faith in this unicorn weekend pump.
Unless I see a weekly close above 74K. 😅
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