Akbar Osman

I am a Bayesian. Look it up. Google it For any given market for about two dozen markets I have binary narratives rolling around in my head Truly binary For example, I have a narrative for $200,000 Bitcoin and $30,000 Bitcoin. I take both narratives seriously but may not be willing to place the same amount of money on each of them But my get size on each changes over time based primarily on how price behaves relative to the fundamentals that emerge. If bullish news produces price weakness I add to the probability of the narrative for price decline There comes a point when as a Bayesian I might give one narrative a 60 or 70% probability ranking. That is about as high as I ever go. And I do not immediately enter a trade when the 70% level is reached. Instead, I wait until I see an asymmetric R:r point on the chart with a defined risk. By defined risk I mean some adverse price level that if reached would move my Bayesian gear box back into neutral And when I place a bet, I never risk more than 8/10th of 1% of my capital pot. The above explains how I think about markets and trading. I trade primarily futures markets, selected etf and Bitcoin. I monitor about 40 to 50 different markets and trade each maybe 3 times per year on average I consider myself first and foremost to be a risk manager I write about this process every week for members of my private community

MicroStrategy is quite literally a Ponzi scheme that just buys Bitcoin.