Akos
4.7K posts





Market is so offside for this move Cash balances high, downsides hedged and sentiment was in the gutter coming into this week Past quarter end too so liquidity to flow back into the market and we continue to rip higher Think pull backs from here quite shallow (sure they’ll be some negative headlines along the way for a dip but it’s clear the Iran war is now concluding and with a US withdrawal, oil will flow) Rates markets completely mis-priced and should revert to pricing cuts, certainly in the UK and US If oil can start to flow, sovereign reserve balances can build which means we see reserve flows coming back into gold As for Bitcoin, still really need to get a Clean break above 74k - short term costs basis in the low 70’s might make it a grind - the Quantum stuff not helpful. Break above 74k and the test more meaningful levels into 85k Still, Bitcoin closed small green on the month of March and outperformed all assets (except oil) - it continues to be battle hardened, surviving another major test The Iran war was the positive narrative catalyst Bitcoin needed and a reminder of its unique properties as a non-sovereign, borderless hard asset Pain in this market is higher. Let the chase begin

It’s really time to position for the end of this war and path to peace It’s not going to be a straight line Trump will get frustrated with SoH negotiations, threats from both sides to re-escalate, then de-escalate Yet it’s clear Trump wants an end to the war - we’re past the max fear, max uncertainty moment and positioning is offside and skewed to the downside Hard to do in spot, but think you position here for upside across equites and crypto via options and take advantage of skew if you’re a “trader” In Bitcoin for example, you can sell a 3 month 60k-40k put spread and Buy a 3 month 76k call for ZERO COST A lot of people going to make their year next few weeks















