Alaa Shahine Salha

441 posts

Alaa Shahine Salha banner
Alaa Shahine Salha

Alaa Shahine Salha

@AlaaShahine

Snr Media Executive, newsroom leader, commentator on economics/business/sports at Asharq Bloomberg, Asharq Al Awsat, Semafor. Former Bloomberg/Reuters/AP

London, Riyadh, Dubai, Beirut. Katılım Mart 2024
513 Takip Edilen226 Takipçiler
Sabitlenmiş Tweet
Alaa Shahine Salha
Alaa Shahine Salha@AlaaShahine·
My latest column for @semafor 👇 - #Saudi sizeable 1Q deficit was widely seen as the sign of the #war cost. That’s fair but only half the story, in my view. - What’s missing is that the shortfall also reflected, to a degree, a policy choice. - That’s seen in the highest 1Q capex in at least a decade - Going forward, #oil revenue is expected to surge & spending to moderate. - It’s a risk, but one that’s worth taking - I explain why, with thoughts from @aliamoub & citing reports by Monica Malik & @ZiadMDaoud semafor.com/article/05/14/…
English
1
5
7
4.4K
Alaa Shahine Salha
Alaa Shahine Salha@AlaaShahine·
My latest column for @AsharqBusiness 👇 - Which Warsh we'll see at the Fed? The inflation hawk? the rates dove? or Trump's "sock puppet?" - Kevin Warsh is probably the first Fed Chair in history who starts the job with his legacy ALREADY on the line - Much like Paul Volcker, he takes the helm in the middle of an #oil shock that's driving #inflation due to (guess what!) another Iran crisis. (Volcker took office shortly after the 1979 Iranian Revolution.) - But while Volcker's response established central banking credibility vs inflation, Warsh is seen by Democrats (and someone like Nobel laureate Paul Krugman) as Trump's "sock puppet"! - The Economist & others recently noted how he has flipped-flopped between an inflation hawk and a rate-cut dove, in his relentless pursuit to succeed Powell at the helm of the world's most important central bank - Come mid-June, Warsh will chair his first FOMC meeting & hold his first press conference. Which Warsh we'll see then? Full story in Arabic:
Asharq Business اقتصاد الشرق@AsharqBusiness

📌قد يكون كيفن وارش أول رئيس للاحتياطي الفيدرالي في التاريخ يبدأ عمله وإرثه بالفعل على المحك 📌مرشح ترمب نال ثقة مجلس الشيوخ الأسبوع الماضي بأقل نسبة تأييد منذ 1977 📌وارش يواجه اختبار قيادة "الفيدرالي" للتعامل مع تبعات حرب إيران على الاقتصاد الأميركي التفاصيل: asharq.net/6017vrytU 🔴 تابعوا اقتصاد الشرق للمزيد

English
0
0
0
57
Alaa Shahine Salha
Alaa Shahine Salha@AlaaShahine·
خيارات #إيران الاقتصادية في الحرب أحلاها مر - النظام يستطيع تغطية فاتورة الأجور الحكومية عبر بيع 250 ألف برميل نفط يومياً، لكن هذا قد يعني تراكم متأخرات أخرىو بحسب تقديرات الاقتصادي جان-ميشال صليبا في "بنك أوف أميركا" - إذا استخدمت الحكومة سعر الصرف الموازي في تحويل إيرادات النفط لدفع الأجور، قد يسهل ذلك من المهمة لكن التضخم قد يصل إلى 100% - القصة الكاملة هنا في حديثي مع جان-ميشال
Asharq Business اقتصاد الشرق@AsharqBusiness

نفط إيران قد يغطي الأجور ... لكن مع تضخم قد يصل إلى 100% asharqbusiness.com/economics/1330…

العربية
0
0
0
66
Alaa Shahine Salha retweetledi
Semafor
Semafor@semafor·
Saudi Arabia’s sizable first-quarter budget deficit has been widely read as an early sign of the Iran war’s toll on the biggest Arab economy. That’s a fair assessment, but only half the story, and a risk worth taking. Read more from Alaa Shahine Salha's view: semafor.com/article/05/14/…
English
0
3
9
1.8K
Alaa Shahine Salha
Alaa Shahine Salha@AlaaShahine·
#UAE plans a new #oil pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, to be operational in 2027! #Saudi already has the East-West pipeline. More countries will follow to ensure supply security. But the first ones will come from countries with enough fiscal firepower to invest.
Asharq Business اقتصاد الشرق@AsharqBusiness

📌 الإمارات تستهدف تشغيل خط أنابيب جديد بين الشرق والغرب في 2027 لتعزيز صادرات النفط 📍 مكتب أبوظبي الإعلامي يقول إن مشروع "ويست إيست 1" الجديد قيد الإنشاء حالياً، ومن المتوقع أن يبدأ التشغيل في 2027 📍 المشروع يهدف إلى مضاعفة طاقة "أدنوك" التصديرية عبر الفجيرة لتلبية الطلب العالمي على إمدادات الطاقة 📍 المشروع يعزز قدرة الإمارات على تصدير النفط عبر الفجيرة بعيداً عن مسار مضيق هرمز 🔴 تابعوا اقتصاد الشرق للمزيد

English
0
0
0
85
Alaa Shahine Salha
Alaa Shahine Salha@AlaaShahine·
Today #Iraq parliament voted to approve the manifesto of the new government headed by PM Ali Al Zaidi. He has an incredibly difficult job to do. In my article under 2 weeks ago, I explain how US failure in Iraq more than 2 decades ago is haunting Trump’s #war on #Iran now.
Alaa Shahine Salha@AlaaShahine

My latest column for @semafor 👇 - Many young Arabs & Americans don’t know much about the #Iraq war but the reality is we are still living through its consequences today - US policy failure in Iraq is now haunting the #Iranwar & threatening Gulf security, as Iranian-backed militias launch multiple attacks on GCC countries including #Saudi and #Kuwait - The damage of the Iraq war has been so colossal & long lasting that many find it easier to believe it was a secret US plan to sow chaos in the Arab world - But the truth is the Iraq war, much like the #Iran war, show how little US officials understand the Middle East beyond narrow security prisms or black-and-white cliches about #oil, bazaars and tribes semafor.com/article/04/30/…

English
0
0
0
183
Alaa Shahine Salha
Alaa Shahine Salha@AlaaShahine·
- US #Inflation accelerated in April, exceeding estimates - Increasingly, we are seeing TWO US economies: - One where #stocks are hitting daily records - GDP is resilient, supported by #AI investments - And another with higher inflation, record-low consumer sentiment - #Fed rates that are higher-for-longer - An affordability squeeze as households grappled with the cumulative gains in prices since 2021 - Which economy will #Trump & Republicans face in #midterm_elections? - Judging by the latest opinion polls so far, the second one is the most-likely option asharq.co/pugr8 story via @AsharqBusiness
English
0
0
0
45
Alaa Shahine Salha
Alaa Shahine Salha@AlaaShahine·
Glad to see talk of a New Taif making an appearance. This is what #Lebanon needs. It’s easier said than done, but it needs to be out there @FirasMaksad
Firas Maksad@FirasMaksad

The message from Beirut: ▪️Current part war/part ceasefire benefiting #Iran, re-legitimizing Hezbollah ▪️Speaker Berri support for direct #Lebanon - #Israel talk in retreat as Hezbollah regains footing ▪️Trump - Aoun summit much more likely than one with Netanyahu ▪️Hezbollah’s disarmament will require regional understanding (#Saudi - Iran) translated locally via “new Taef.” @BeckyCNN

English
0
0
1
126
Alaa Shahine Salha
Alaa Shahine Salha@AlaaShahine·
Does anyone else think that using Truth as a verb to refer to Trump’s post on Truth Social is one of the weirdest (and sort of annoying) uses that has come up recently in English? It certainly beats the transformation of the word “sick” which at one point went from meaning “ill” or “disgusted” to describing someone/something cool!!
English
0
0
0
34
Alaa Shahine Salha retweetledi
Aaron Rupar
Aaron Rupar@atrupar·
COLBERT: How dumb do you think it is for people to say that I should run for president? OBAMA: Well, you know, the bar has changed. I think you would perform significantly better than some folks we've seen. COLBERT: Is that an endorsement? OBAMA: It was not
English
492
6.1K
75.5K
3.5M
Alaa Shahine Salha
Alaa Shahine Salha@AlaaShahine·
This was an exceptional day for #Egypt economy, with separate reports confirming its resilience and ability to contain the fallout from the #IranWar‌: - First, inflation slowed in April - Then, central bank data showed FX reserves rose to another record (chart below) - Government figures showed 1Q GDP growth accelerated 5% - And finally, the Egyptian pound moved from one of the worst performers vs the #dollar at the start of the #war to one of the best. - Egypt has a way to go in long term structural reforms outside the monetary/fiscal sectors, but deserved credit for maintaining policy credibility from the start of the conflict.
اقتصاد الشرق – مصر@AsharqbEGY

📌رغم حرب إيران.. احتياطي مصر الأجنبي يواصل النمو - نما احتياطي مصر من العملات الأجنبية بنحو 178 مليون دولار خلال شهر أبريل، مقابل زيادة قدرها 85 مليون دولار في مارس و152 مليون دولار في فبراير 🔴 تابعوا اقتصاد الشرق للمزيد

English
0
0
1
127
Alaa Shahine Salha retweetledi
Asharq Business اقتصاد الشرق
Asharq Business اقتصاد الشرق@AsharqBusiness·
رغم تداعيات الحرب.. السعودية تسجل في الربع الأول من 2026 أكبر إنفاق رأسمالي في ربع أول منذ عام 2016 على الأقل - الإنفاق الرأسمالي قفز 56% في الثلاثة أشهر الأولى من العام على أساس سنوي 🔴 تابعوا اقتصاد الشرق للمزيد
Asharq Business اقتصاد الشرق tweet media
العربية
2
7
13
2.9K
Alaa Shahine Salha
Alaa Shahine Salha@AlaaShahine·
Despite the significant widening in 1Q #Saudi budget deficit, there is scope for the shortfall to narrow this year, according to estimates by Monica Malik, chief economist at ADCB & one of the most prominent scholars on the region in my books - #Oil revenue will likely improve in 2Q onwards - Slight drop in 1Q oil income is due to low prices Jan-Feb, plus the time it took to bring East-West pipeline to full capacity - Note: Deficit widened to the biggest level since 2018, driven by the highest 1Q capex spending in at least a decade
Asharq Business اقتصاد الشرق@AsharqBusiness

📌بنك أبوظبي التجاري يتوقع تراجع عجز ميزانية السعودية لعام 2026 بأكثر مما كان متوقعاً قبل اندلاع حرب إيران، مدفوعاً بزيادة أسعار النفط 📌مونيكا مالك، كبيرة الاقتصاديين في البنك، رجّحت في تقرير نشر اليوم الأربعاء، ارتفاع الإيرادات النفطية خلال الفترة المتبقية من العام مع "الزيادة الكبيرة" في الأسعار وقدرة السعودية على توجيه قسم كبير من صادراتها عبر خط أنابيب شرق-غرب التفاصيل: asharq.net/6010vMTlE 🔴 تابعوا اقتصاد الشرق للمزيد

English
0
0
0
71
Alaa Shahine Salha
Alaa Shahine Salha@AlaaShahine·
#Saudi budget takeaways: - Capex spending was the biggest surprise: the highest for 1Q since at least 2017 (when the finance ministry began publishing quarterly reports) - Tim Callen, former IMF Saudi mission chief, tells me he doesn't recall any 1Q capex figure even being close to this - Non-oil revenue up 2%, #oil revenue down 3% - Decline in oil rev partly reflecting fact that East-West pipeline didn't reach full capacity until later in March AND payment lag (usually one month) - Deficit widest since end of 2018, reflecting choice to increase spending even as overall revenue stayed flat - Going forward, revenue will likely increase but hard to see 2026 pre-war spending target met - Story in Arabic: asharq.co/yn9um
English
0
0
1
102
Alaa Shahine Salha
Alaa Shahine Salha@AlaaShahine·
BREAKING: #Saudi Arabia's 1Q budget. Key highlights: - Revenue broadly resilient while counter-cyclical spending boost counters war's initial shock - Budget deficit widens significantly as a result to 125.7 billion riyals ($33.5 billion) vs 95 billion in last quarter of 2025 - Deficit financed entirely via borrowing: 90% of annual borrowing needs secured BEFORE war - #oil revenue down 3% (Price spike almost offset the March export slump) - Non-oil revenue up 2% - Significant spending increase (20%) takes the budget deficit to SAR125.7 billion ($33.5 billion) - Defense spending up 26% - Transport/infrastructure spending up 26%
Asharq Business اقتصاد الشرق@AsharqBusiness

ميزانية السعودية تتجاوز تداعيات حرب إيران.. تعرف على أبرز أرقام الربع الأول 2026، وفق وزارة المالية - اتساع العجز 📍الميزانية تسجل عجزاً قدره 125.7 مليار ريال بالربع الأول 📍جاء ذلك وسط تراجع الإيرادات وزيادة الإنفاق 📍العجز في نفس الفترة من 2025 كان قد سجل 58.7 مليار ريال - نمو الإيرادات عير النفطية 📍إجمالي الإيرادات تراجع 1% على أساس سنوي إلى 260.97 مليار ريال 📍الإيرادات غير النفطية زادت 2% إلى 116.3 مليار ريال 📍الإيرادات النفطية انخفضت 3% إلى 144.7 مليار ريال وسط تحديات حرب إيران وإغلاق مضيق هرمز - السعودية تختار زيادة الإنفاق 📍%20 زيادة في الإنفاق بالربع الأول على أساس سنوي إلى 386.7 مليار ريال 📍 الإنفاق في الربع الأول من العام الحالي الأعلى منذ الرابع الرابع 2023 📍هذه الزيادة تهدف لتنفيذ استراتيجيات ومشاريع تسهم في التنويع الاقتصادي 📍الإنفاق العسكري ارتفع 26% ليبلغ 64.7 مليار ريال 📍المملكة استنفذت خلال الربع 27% من إجمالي الإنفاق العسكري المقرر في ميزانية العام كاملاً 📍الإنفاق الرأسمالي زاد 56% ليبلغ 43.4 مليار ريال - الضرائب على الدخل والأرباح والمكاسب الرأسمالية تتراجع 12% إلى 5.9 مليار ريال في الربع الأول 2026 🔴 تابعوا اقتصاد الشرق للمزيد

English
0
0
1
201

Keşfet

@AsharqBusiness @FirasMaksad @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13 @cristiano @BillGates @NASA