Becky Anderson

Today with @BeckyCNN : “The GCC states are hostages to three realities: a war they did not choose, a belligerent neighboring Iranian regime that continues to carry on these unjustified aggression, and a U.S. geopolitical calculation that priortizes Netanyahu’s objectives over the security and stability of the Gulf region”

Israel striking at Iran’s energy is not in US interest. US needs lower oil prices for longer time to further degrade Iranian capabilities. Hence Trump is easing restrictions on Russia & even Iran’s oil exports. But for Bibi, striking #Iran’s energy, knowing response likely against #Qatar & GCC, well… two birds, one stone. @BeckyCNN

As those escalating attacks turn the Gulf states into the “punching bag” of this conflict, @FirasMaksad lays out their likely response in the days to come:

“We’re very much still in an escalatory cycle” - @FirasMaksad warns that markets have not yet priced in the economic shockwaves from the energy infrastructure attacks across this region.

.@ecfr’s Ellie Geranmayeh reflects on marking Nowruz today after Iran has gone through one of its bloodiest years in memory:

A message of hope. #EidMubarak #NowruzPirooz

Wishing all of you who celebrate and your loved ones a blessed Eid al-Fitr.

.@brett_mcgurk: “The best counter to asymmetrical escalation is a coalition of like-minded countries banding together, but this is easier to say than do in practice. .” Saying the hard part out loud. Building coalitions is tough, but momentum is building for the Strait of Hormuz

Joint statement from the leaders of 🇬🇧 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 🇮🇹 🇳🇱 🇯🇵 on Strait of Hormuz— “We express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait.” gov.uk/government/new…

IMO Secretary-General: “Let it be the responsibility of each and every one of us to demonstrate that inaction is not an option, that words alone are not sufficient. Together, we can drive the change required to protect the wellbeing of those who have no voice and safeguard the principle of freedom of navigation."

Told @BeckyCNN: - Trump is floating de-escalation focused on South Pars gas field/Qatar's North Dome; Iran may be open to hitting only military sites if all civilian infrastructure off limits. - This war will eventually end and Iran is looking at paving the way for ultimately entering negotiations on better terms than before, and without having to worry about another war in 6 months. - Drawing on @amwajmedia report, explained that Iran was ready to make major concessions in nuclear talks which preceded the war, incl enrichment freeze and zero stockpiling. Trump still went to war, likely because he didn't think Iran would fight back this hard, this long.

I also asked @mashabani about remarkable comments from the US that it could "unsanction" Iranian oil that is already being shipped to try to ease an increasingly grave global energy crisis:

There are few voices with more insight into the Iranian regime’s strategic thinking than @mashabani. Here’s what he had to say about Tehran’s next steps in the climbing ladder of escalating energy attacks across the region:

“The UAE’s $1.4 trillion investment and economic framework with the US announced last year will stay on track with plans to accelerate deployment and funding,” per a letter to the U.S.-U.A.E. Business Council from the U.A.E.’s Ambassador to the United States seen by CNN

“There are supply chain ripples that are going to be felt for years as a result of what we have seen over the last three weeks” @Lloydslisted tells me about escalating attacks on Iran and the Gulf’s energy facilities. As for getting ships through the Strait of Hormuz, he’s tracking Iran taking increasing control through a de facto “tollbooth”

Tit-for-tat attacks on Iran’s South Pars facility and Qatar’s Ras Laffan refinery have taken war to a new level. @AlOraibi says Gulf leaders, caught in a cycle of escalation, are still keenly working toward a diplomatic offramp:

As oil prices surge and global trade routes come under threat, this Iran war is no longer regional. Retired Royal Navy Commodore Simon Kelly warns building a US-led coalition in the Strait of Hormuz is far more complex than it sounds.

. @HTAlhasan says the U.S. and Israel have shown a "blatant disregard for Gulf security" as they continue to cross Iranian red lines.

Arab and European nations are scrambling for a path out of the Strait of Hormuz crisis. @HTAlhasan tells me Gulf states “cannot live under constant Iranian blackmail” — as pressure grows to secure one of the world’s most vital shipping lanes.