Alexander

@StormQrow42 You would probably need to calculate the average number of looks per card in your deck, and then do probability of hitting an out + probability of hitting a look times probability of hitting a remaining out.

@Alaexaender True, at some point I’ll want to learn how to approximate the more complicated scenarios, might need to get an actual math person for that though. A cantrip might be worth 20% of an out or something like that, hard for me to wrap my head around right now.

I developed a shorthand that probably already existed on how to calculate which line has better odds at finding an out. Might be too basic for math people and too dense for non-math people, but figured I'd share in case it's useful for anyone else. docs.google.com/document/d/1FZ…

I sure do love having a major MTG tournament's only stream be from a non-wizards account, only on youtube, and apparently unable to start back up when it's ended early.

@caro_irl I think a better way to think of this is "How many rounds of a pro-level bo3 tournament do you need for a 2-1 Andy to guaranteed get knocked out". Since no one plays best of 19's, but we'd all agreed a random player isn't gonna hit the top 8 of an RC.

how big do you think the chasm between magic pros and "average" players is? in chess, the worst IM would have to have a mid-game stroke for me to win. obviously RNG and decks are a factor, but would a pro have a ~100% chance of beating "FNM 2-1 Andy" in a bo5? bo11? bo21?

@adamwasmo @Glow_blocker @doodillydoo It should exile all 3, right?

@Glow_blocker @doodillydoo Trying to exile all 3 was the point yeah

Died in the PT A fun moment was calling a judge, getting a ruling, then getting an announcement the following round that the ruling was wrong (I didn't appeal because I didn't think it mattered)

Finally got my RCQ win this weekend. 3-1-1 with Lessons, into beating mono red then oroboroid, at a 2-slot event. Sadly, lessons may not be viable pretty soon, reanimator was never a good matchup and with new evoke cards, feels nearly unplayable.

RCQ yesterday, judge call: Player A: Jeskai Player B: RDW B passes turn. End step, A casts star charts. A plays land, says "your turn". B draws for turn, then realizes they were on end step. Judge gives A a miscommunication warning, B a Hidden Card Error. Is that correct?

@AidanCossi12438 @McAdamJason @dominharvia None of those are finishers? They're great value, but if opponent has 4 kill spells, you lose

@McAdamJason @dominharvia Quantum riddler, shiko, wan shi tong, etc. though I’d say revelation isn’t a bad card either

Not my circus but the Jeskai Control decks in Standard are baffling to me. You have the deepest bench of good control finishers there has ever been in Standard and you fill your deck with Jeskai Revelations instead?!

7-1 with lessons. Cost reduction is and always will be broken.

First Trophy in Avatar, 7-1

Been playing a lot of powered cube, and I think I understand now why people enjoy it. I really wish there was a bit more time though, I run down the clock pretty often. Unrelated Nadu pic.

Finally hit mythic with a 7-2. This format is pretty bad, too easy to have good decks get absolutely screwed. Or maybe I just suck.

7-2 with aggro RB.

7-1 with Double Singularity

7-1 to finally hit diamond. RG Landfall stompy

It's that time of the format. 7-1 with mono blue flyers.

76-2 with aggro burn BG. Not sure how that was a thing

My 2nd draft and first 7-0. Landers as sac/void enablers is unfair.

Sealed qualifier today felt pretty light. Got a qual by just playing flyers on curve.

A very quick 2 boxes with mardu aggro. Beat a lot of very scary 5-color decks that did nothing.