Alessandro Bryk

@Abomination81 @Polymarket Got it, already did that. Thank you for your time! 🙏

Are you calling codex a cocksucker? If not.. youre missing out. But seriously. You have to figure out the edge then direct codex/claude etc... telling ai "find me a profitable strategy" will always fail. You can scrape all my posts, put it in json/md format and dump that into ai, that would give you a huge head start

Lets fix your Polymarket bot. Now that V2 is out and I've transitioned most of my bots I have time to help some people out. The rules. Give a TLDR of what your bot does, and what the issue is. More details the better. Try and ask specific questions. @Polymarket

@Abomination81 @Polymarket i understand simple, directional, maker, no complex bullshit, i went through your profile, maybe the way i talk to codex is wrong?

I mean 25-55c at 30 seconds out, most markets are much closer to 80-90c by then. Also why are you buying 25c shares at 30 seconds???? a 25c share at 30 seconds is extremely likely to lose. Few issues... 1 95% of strategies that are takes (fok, fak) cannot be profitable after fees. I literally cannot figure out what youre doing... Just buy up is the strategy? I mean I guess this month that might have actually done ok, but normally this would get you wrecked.

@Abomination81 @Polymarket thank you for the critique, is there a core thesis that you could give me without sharing a concrete edge i could build on?

@Abomination81 @Polymarket BTC 15m Up/Down. Current profile buys YES only 30s before close, price 25-55c, 10 shares, FOK/no chase, hold to resolution. It needs sell-light flow + not ask-heavy book. Offline edge looks good, but live proof is tiny: 26 windows, 1 fill.

@Abomination81 @Polymarket Hey there, big fan of yours, following you for over few months and finally decided to give this a go since i cant figure out a successful live profile for over 4 months of everyday work. this is where im at now after a lot of experiments

@Abombination81 Mostly Python for strategy logic, backtests, and data pipelines; light Bash/TS for tooling. JSON/TOML configs, CLI-first workflow, Markdown runbooks, MCP connectors. Validation = deterministic replay + walk-forward.

@Abombination81 Hey there👋 thank you for providing huge value. I currently code with codex, mainly python. Over the few months i really got into coding bots on polymarket i learned all of the things you mentioned.

Ok Need a question answered. Seeing if I can build something for you Guys/Gals/Whatever's. This is very important you answer, for your own benefit. Does everyone here use AI to code? if so which one. If you code, what are you using, python? rust? etc Do you know how to use a json? cli? mcp? md files? I need to figure out how to build things... like back testers, traders, etc for you guys. But need to understand how others are doing things. My way is just one of many. Just put what you know below, IM going to scrape it all and try and make it all work. So if you don't reply, and shit doesn't work... well go punch yourself in your no no spot because it's your own fault.

@Abombination81 💪

Why am I sharing such valuable information?? For free?? And how you can pay it forward --- Read Below I'll tell you why. Scammers. These idiot asshole, PolyMarket posts of "I made 40k doing x" are screwing people... hard. They are everywhere. They are all bot farms regurgitating content and pushing for telegram bots or github repos. These bots drain wallets, and screw people. This is affecting the most desperate people who need a quick win. I spent my first few days on X (I've now been posting a week, so happy Anniversary) calling these scammers out on their posts. But they flagged me as spam, would delete the post, and just repost. So I decided to fight fire with a nuclear bomb. The truth. I was going to share exactly how every bot makes money, and how people can really do it. No get rich quick schemes, no paywall, no pay to play, just facts.. Its working. I'm seeing multiple people reply to these scammer bots call them out now. This was not happening a week ago, and its YOU my followers replying to these scumbags, protecting others. So I need your help. We need to blow this account up. Not for clout, not for money (laughable amounts on x) but to clean up all the scammers and let everybody work together to make money. So seriously. Like any post you read that you find even slightly valuable, repost. Comment... even if the comment is "thanks" or "i knew this, glad its verified"... literally ANYTHING. We need to hijack the algo and make it impossible for those people to scam anymore. Thanks

@jtrevorchapman @polybacktest Im i correct that a lot of your ideas for your bots come from scientific papers?

lol -- this is what opus 4.6 output for me (the papers he mentions are precisely what I originally read and planned out the engine on paper, then fed the ideas into opus 4.6 first in windsurf (far more exact) then some alterations in antigravity (cheaper but prone to destroy the entire thing if let loose): 🧵 How our hedge engine works (high-level) People have been asking, so here's the gist. This isn't the full picture, but it's enough to understand the philosophy. 1/ The problem When you trade binary outcomes on Polymarket, you end up with directional inventory — mostly YES or mostly NO. If the market reverses, you eat the loss on the dominant side. The hedge engine exists to buy cheap insurance on the opposite side before that happens. 2/ It's semi-independent from our directional engine The hedge engine shares the same position book but runs on its own clock — faster cooldown, separate budget carve-out, hard cap on how many times it fires per session. Think of it as an insurance desk sitting next to the trading desk. 3/ The core idea: Avellaneda-Stoikov reservation price We borrow the concept of reservation price shift from the A-S market-making framework (2008). When your inventory gets lopsided, your fair price shifts away from mid. We use that shift as the primary signal that you're overexposed and need to hedge. 4/ Five-factor urgency score The engine doesn't fire on any single condition. It scores five factors and blends them into a single urgency number: Inventory imbalance — How one-sided is your book? (A-S reservation shift) Time pressure — Quadratic escalation as the session runs out. Urgency isn't linear — it's ∝ t². Volatility — The σ² term from A-S. Higher vol = higher reversal risk = hedge sooner. Flow reversal — VPIN-inspired detection. We watch for sign flips in cumulative volume delta, short-term momentum, and order book imbalance. Multiple flips in a short window spike the score; it decays if nothing follows. Pair discount — The Dutch Book check. On Polymarket, YES + NO should cost $1. When they cost less, hedging is literally discounted. We only fire when insurance is cheap. All five must contribute enough to cross a threshold. No single factor can trigger a hedge alone. 5/ Sizing: GLFT-inspired bounded inventory Once the decision to hedge is made, sizing follows Guéant-Lehalle-Fernandez-Tapia (GLFT) bounded inventory logic. The goal: cap your max loss at a fraction of your potential profit. Each hedge share costs p, pays $1 if it wins, so the margin math is straightforward. We also hard-cap any single hedge as a percentage of potential profit so you never over-insure. 6/ Execution details Fill-or-kill orders, retried every tick on ghost fills WSS confirmation loop for ground-truth share counts Budget-gated: once the hedge budget is spent, no more hedges regardless of urgency 7/ What we're NOT sharing The exact factor weights, the urgency threshold, the gating sequence, the cooldown timings, and the sizing ratios. Those are the tuning that makes it actually work in prod. The concepts above are all published academic work — A-S (2008), GLFT (2013), VPIN (Easley et al. 2012). Our contribution is stitching them together for binary prediction markets. Build it yourself if you want. The papers are free. 🫡

Used to spending weeks+ recording my own data for my backtests and strategies. Signed up for @polybacktest and ran my existing safezone accumulation strategy through the 5m market data, saw it had a 96% WR, altered the script as necessary to launch w/ the 5m Polymarket BTC markets, and... voila:

@jtrevorchapman @polybacktest Thank you for your willingness to share!

@jtrevorchapman @polybacktest Thank you!

@AlessandroBryk @polybacktest Sure. For my latest script I’ll have Claude write up an explanation and I’ll post it here tonight.

@jtrevorchapman @polybacktest I mean hint at what is the rule for hedge

@jtrevorchapman @polybacktest Hey Trevor, would you be so kind and atleast hint at the rules you use for not hedged trades and the hedged ones? does it have anything to do with time bucket, or distance from ptb? Thank you for you reply <3

@jtrevorchapman @polybacktest hey Trevor, may i ask you what u use for PTB? gamma truth, bn, cl? thank you

@raychix 🔥

@AlessandroBryk I’ve been waiting for chainlink to send me an api key as well. This is how you get around it: Connect - fetch - disconnect, every 1.15s to avoid rate limiting.

Been scripting polymarket bots since Dec 12 '25. While I am not bringing in gabagool and 0xd money, I end each day up, consistently, even during the downturns and sudden dumps/pumps. I log every session to file, and there are market windows I totally avoid. Below are the windows exported from one of the recent scripts (so the reason may not be accurate, as it is what the script recorded IF there wasn't a global explanation pulled from the dependency that loads the passive windows. BUT, avoiding (at least) the top tier windows -- unless your bot thrives on volatility -- will save you money. Passive Mode Skip Windows (24 Slots) 🔴 Tier 1: NYSE Open Cluster (Highest Chaos) SlotReason 8:45 AM16 avg flips observed! 9:00 AMOpening Bell 9:15 AM10 avg flips! 9:30 AM$537 Loss — 3 flips 9:45 AMPreventive buffer 🔴 Tier 2: NYSE Close SlotReason 3:00 PM3 flips, -$15 loss 3:45 PM6.3 avg flips, 11 max 4:00 PM4 flips, 4:45 PM10 flips, -$1.81 loss 🟡 Tier 3: London/Europe Open SlotReason 12:00 AM6 flips, -$21 loss 12:45 AMLondon Open Phase 1 🟡 Tier 4: Pre-Market / Asia Session SlotReason 4:15 AMVerified Reversal Zone 6:00 AMVerified Reversal Zone 6:15 AM7 flips, 7:30 AMPreventive 8:00 AM9 flips observed 🟠 Tier 5: Afternoon SlotReason 1:30 PMVerified Reversal Zone 5:45 PM4.5 avg flips, 6 max 🟠 Tier 6: Evening / Asian Transition SlotReason 7:15 PMEarly Asian Transition Chaos 7:30 PM5.0 avg flips, 10 max 8:45 PMVerified Reversal Zone 9:00 PMVerified Reversal Zone 10:15 PM6.0 avg flips, 7 max 10:30 PM9.5 avg flips, 16 max! 10:45 PM16 flips observed! 11:00 PM4 flips, -$354 loss 11:45 PM3 avg flips

@krajekis @Polymarket @zscdao Polymarket 15M BTC Assistant

I built a real-time @Polymarket BTC 15m trading assistant for every trader! (Absolutely FREE!) 1. Overview Bitcoin Up or Down is a real-time terminal-based trading decision support bot designed for short-term (15-minute) Bitcoin directional markets, with a primary focus on Polymarket prediction markets. The bot aggregates: • Technical indicators (RSI, MACD, Heikin Ashi, VWAP) • Real time predict via TA in % • Order flow / delta metrics • Price Difference to track impulse between Binance \ Polymarket prices • Real-time BTC price feeds • Live Polymarket market prices and liquidity It outputs a human-readable terminal dashboard showing probabilistic bias, indicator states, and actionable pricing context relative to the prediction market strike price. The bot does not execute trades automatically. It is an informational / decision-support system. One static screen. Updates live. Fast decisions. 2. Key Use Case • Decide UP vs DOWN positions on Polymarket BTC markets • Short-term momentum and mean-reversion analysis • Price-to-strike comparison with market-implied probabilities • Rapid decision-making under time pressure 3. Runtime Environment Node.js runtime Executed via: npm start 4. Interface • Terminal / CLI UI • ANSI color-coded output • Fixed-width monospace formatting 5. Timezone Handling • Market time: ET (US Eastern Time) • Session indicator shown at bottom How to get it: RT + Like + Comment “Polymarket 15M BTC Assistant” I’ll send the setup instructions (open-source GitHub) in your DM. Thanks! I bet you'll like it :) cheers to @zscdao