Alex Crowe

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Alex Crowe

Alex Crowe

@AlexCroweFFB

FFB Dyno and Redraft Junky. Commissioner of the Great Shako FFL 🏈 Minnesota Sports Lover 🥲 @ToBanter

Minneapolis, MN Katılım Ocak 2024
499 Takip Edilen166 Takipçiler
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Alex Crowe
Alex Crowe@AlexCroweFFB·
One of the main goals in Dynasty is to find elite production before the cost explodes. After 4 years of data (Classes 22-25) vs. Dynasty ROI, I’ve developed the Corvus Efficiency Index (CEI). 🐦‍⬛ A WR model built to signal which prospects have high-end Dynasty value 🧵👇🏼
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Alex Crowe
Alex Crowe@AlexCroweFFB·
Is this good?
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Alex Crowe
Alex Crowe@AlexCroweFFB·
Is this good?
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Alex Crowe
Alex Crowe@AlexCroweFFB·
One of the main goals in Dynasty is to find elite production before the cost explodes. After 4 years of data (Classes 22-25) vs. Dynasty ROI, I’ve developed the Corvus Efficiency Index (CEI). 🐦‍⬛ A WR model built to signal which prospects have high-end Dynasty value 🧵👇🏼
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Alex Crowe
Alex Crowe@AlexCroweFFB·
@DanReedOfficial I’d rather sell to a team I know won’t be top half of the league, but that’s not always feasible. I feel like Coker’s value is pretty safe. Room to grow and likely not losing much value unless CAR drafts a high end WR.
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Danny Reed
Danny Reed@DanReedOfficial·
@AlexCroweFFB This offer just came through last night. Looking like it will be 2.06-2.12 range
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Alex Crowe
Alex Crowe@AlexCroweFFB·
@DanReedOfficial I like it more than your prior offer.. I would still have some trepidations given the uncertainty of where that ‘27 pick lands. If you are pretty confident that it’s early to mid 2nd round, I think I’d take that and run. Those ‘27 picks are gonna be worth a pretty penny!
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Alex Crowe
Alex Crowe@AlexCroweFFB·
@complain_papi The data I used was career metrics. I would like to at least have some sort of weight on Strength of Schedule but couldn’t figure out a good way to measure it. Thanks for the kind words!
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complain.papi
complain.papi@complain_papi·
@AlexCroweFFB Does CEI look at best season, most recent season, or career? This is impressive work, and I know you've already commented on excluding SOS, but I feel like your results would be wildly different with it and breakout age. Lance popped, but he was a men amongst non-NFL boys.
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Alex Crowe
Alex Crowe@AlexCroweFFB·
@RLott1984 Zay Flowers is the highest ranked player (29th) that falls below the threshold. Alex Pierce (30) and Michael Wilson (34) also fall below the 75th %tile. Only 12/61 prospects (19.7%) have hit top 30 value since being drafted. Several of them had their value peak after the draft.
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Russ Lott
Russ Lott@RLott1984·
@AlexCroweFFB Interesting for sure. But if you remove those that should be obvious hits whats the hit rate? And can it predict busts like KC Conceotion is below the threshold. What does that mean for him?
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Alex Crowe
Alex Crowe@AlexCroweFFB·
@RLott1984 Can you clarify what you mean by “obvious hits”? I would say it would have predicted several busts or red flags. Worthy (60th %tile), Keon (49th %tile), AD Mitchell (41st %tile), Legette (21st %tile). As far as not reaching the 75th percentile goes -
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Alex Crowe
Alex Crowe@AlexCroweFFB·
@SubstanceD3 I don’t disagree at all. Why I believe in the film test as well. Analytical models shouldn’t be gospel, but can help highlight specific traits/attributes that correlate to NFL success!
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Substance D
Substance D@SubstanceD3·
@AlexCroweFFB Contextually speaking, 1DPRR also indicates target percentage in high-pressure situations. My only concern with this work is the low R^2 I agree that this type of work has merit, but that its inherent actionability is low.
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Danny Reed
Danny Reed@DanReedOfficial·
@AlexCroweFFB Appreciate your thoughts and feedback! Cant wait for football to be back!
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Alex Crowe
Alex Crowe@AlexCroweFFB·
@DanReedOfficial Your roster looks like it’s pretty formidable but could use an injection of young talent. I don’t see the 2.10 making an instant impact, but you may be able to bundle Coker + to sneak into the back end of the first where those prospects should be a little safer. Hope this helps!
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Alex Crowe
Alex Crowe@AlexCroweFFB·
@DanReedOfficial There’s bound to be some intriguing names in that range. That being said I think I’d sit on the known commodity and hope he hasn’t hit his peak yet, Rather than taking a flyer on what will likely be a late Day 2/Early Day 3 NFL Draft pick in that 2.10 range.
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Alex Crowe
Alex Crowe@AlexCroweFFB·
@DanReedOfficial Hmmm. I’m leaning hold Coker. What type of league is it, and how does the rest of your team look?
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Danny Reed
Danny Reed@DanReedOfficial·
@AlexCroweFFB I love Coker’s story, so don’t want that to cloud judgement. My WRs are Rashee, Adams, McLaurin, Aiyuk, Pittman, Meyers, Parker Washington, Jalen McMillan, Coker & TeSlaa. Would you accept the 2.10 in this year’s draft for Coker? Or wait and hope to turn him into more?
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Alex Crowe
Alex Crowe@AlexCroweFFB·
@Axe_RN Here is a link to the spreadsheet I used. It should have the data you are looking for. If not shoot me a DM and I’ll see if I can help!
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Alex Crowe
Alex Crowe@AlexCroweFFB·
@DanReedOfficial Depends what you consider a big leap. I think he starts the year as the teams WR2 and will be off the field less this year than in years past. That being said, I have a hard time believing anyone takes a BIG leap in Carolina unless Bryce can show more down-to-down consistency
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Danny Reed
Danny Reed@DanReedOfficial·
@AlexCroweFFB Are you expecting a big leap for Coker this year if he can stay healthy?
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Alex Crowe
Alex Crowe@AlexCroweFFB·
I messed my own Easter egg up 😂🥲 The first letter of each tweet SHOULD read “Omar Cooper Jr” However, some last second edits before I hit send, now has the Easter egg reading “Otar Cooper Jr” 🤦🏼‍♂️🤦🏼‍♂️🤦🏼‍♂️
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Alex Crowe
Alex Crowe@AlexCroweFFB·
P.S. There is an "Easter Egg" buried in this thread. Can you find it and reveal one of my favorite prospects in the 2026 class? 🐦‍⬛
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Ghost
Ghost@E_Schlicht·
@AlexCroweFFB Wow look, another random Fantasy football account that made his own player model using AI like everyone else
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Alex Crowe
Alex Crowe@AlexCroweFFB·
@8325gsdlk394ffh Honestly, that would have been a more fun name come to think of it, and I am high on him. That is not who THE Easter egg is, though.
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Addam
Addam@8325gsdlk394ffh·
@AlexCroweFFB McAlister? Scored high in your model, excellent MTF rate, good strength of competition, solid film and not a lot of people are talking about him.
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