complain.papi

@AlexFast8 Think you swapped armside and gloveside again! Haha

Yesterday's CWS/MIA might not have been the best game but it featured some unreal pitches. Here are yesterday's whiffs that had the most armside movement, gloveside movement, drop, rise and velo Featuring: Robert Suarez, Chris Paddack, and a nasty slurve via Sean Newcomb

@AlexFast8 Am I mistaken that this video has those flipped?

@complain_papi Pitcher

Notable whiffs from March 29th. These are the whiffs that had the most: Velo (and least velo), vert, drop, armside movement, gloveside movement. Yohan Ramírez had the whiff with the most armside movement AND the pitch with the most gloveside movement.

@DevyEusuf 1. They're unrelated 2. Contested catch% is less important

It's a bit hypocritical to knock KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston for being weak vs Zone and ignore the abysmally high Contested Target Rate of Elijah Sarratt.

@NoFilm_Analysis Can you provide insight on Kincaid's lowish usage?

Both of these takes have some truth to them, while at the same time not fully grasping (or at least articulating) the difference in value with receiving ability and blocking ability in tight end prospects. 1. Blocking matters 2. Receiving ability matters significantly more The NFL tells us both of these truths all the time through draft capital, playing time, and contract details. John Bates, 6th-year tight end for the Washington Commanders, was drafted in the 4th round despite atrocious production in college. Yet the Commanders still took him in the 4th round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Bates goes on to put up less than 600 yards in 4 years for Washington. The Commanders go on to sign him to a 3-year, $21 million contract extension. Why? Well, one of the reasons being he played over 2,000 snaps in 4 years for them. 65% of those snaps were blocking snaps. Despite offering little to no upside as a receiver, the Commanders still saw enough value in his ability as a blocker to sign him to a contract extension. So blocking certainly matters for tight ends. Again, the NFL shows us this through draft capital, playing time, and contract details. But at the same time, blocking ability is SIGNIFICANTLY overvalued during draft season. Draft analysts, professional and amateur alike, will often overvalue a tight end's blocking ability when evaluating them. Tight end prospects should be looked at through the same lens the NFL looks at them and evaluate accordingly. That is, if a tight end's receiving ability is so good, it almost always makes up for any blocking deficiencies. If a tight end is projected to in the first or second round, then all I really care about is, how good are they as a receiver? If they check the boxes of a first or second round talent as a receiver, then evaluate them as a blocker next and adjust the evaluation accordingly. The NFL will tell us this with their actions. Their willingness to forgive a player's blocking deficiencies is almost 1 for 1 with the player's ability as a receiver. It's because replacing or supplementing blocking value is significantly easier for a team than it is for receiving ability. It would be easier for the Bills to replace Jackson Hawes than it would be to replace Dalton Kincaid. The NFL will prove this once it's time to sign Kincaid to his next contract vs Jackson Hawes. The NFL will never take a tight end in the first or second round if they don't see value or upside in them as a receiver, it doesn't matter how good their blocking is. But we see all the time teams taking productive tight end prospects with sky-rocket receiving upside despite below average to poor blocking. The Bills did it with Kincaid. Falcons did it with Kyle Pitts. Kelce has been a below-average to bad blocker for the last 5+ years, yet the Chiefs had no hesitation to continuously make him the highest-paid tight end ever. Darren Waller might be one of the worst blocking tight ends of all time. Yet, at his peak, every team in the NFL would have no hesitation paying him top-of-the-market money. And this wasn't as a slot receiver disguised as a tight end, he played majority of his snaps inline for the Raiders. Regarding Eli Stowers, he isn't a wide receiver. He's a tight end. He's going to play tight end in the NFL. He doesn't need to lose weight to play receiver. He doesn't need to gain a bunch of weight to become a better blocker. If he's a good enough receiver at the tight end position then NFL teams will find value in him.

@NoFilm_Analysis What's the difference between playstyle and archetype? Are Allen's mutually exclusive?

60 Days, 60 Prospects 2026 NFL Draft Countdown – Day 33 Prospect Breakdown: Kaytron Allen, Penn State, RB4 Kaytron Allen is one of the more productive backs on the ground in the class. He's tough, physical, and reliable. He lacks the kind of elite explosiveness and receiving upside that is often coveted at the position, but his scheme versatility and strong production profile make him an intriguing prospect. Height: 5'11 Weight: 216 Age: 23.2 High-end Player Comp: Tyler Allgeier Low-end Player Comp: Tyrion Davis-Price Playstyle: Elusive Back Archetype: Power Back; Scheme Versatile Round Grade: 4th Round Talent Allen was one of the most productive running backs in college football over the past four seasons, despite playing alongside Nicholas Singleton who ranks as my 3rd overall running back prospect in this year's class. Over the course of four seasons and 54 games played, Allen put up 4,167 rushing yards and 39 touchdowns on 768 attempts. He averaged an impressive 77.2 rush yards per game and 5.4 yards per attempt. While he may not be the biggest back or the most physically gifted, Allen was still able to consistently generate yards after contact in his career. He averaged 3.3 yards after contact per attempt, with 61.5% of his rushing yards coming after contact. He forced a missed tackle on 24% of his career touches, totalling 201 career missed tackles. His 224 career first downs ranks in the 95th percentile among running back prospects since 2018. Allen's limitations are clear: he doesn't offer much upside as a receiver and his overall efficiency numbers are lacking. Allen recorded just 95 career targets and 70 receptions for 490 yards. His 0.74 yards per route run ranks in the 15th percentile among running back prospects since 2018. Allen wasn't able to consistently break up chunk gains of 10+ yards, with only 13.9% of his career carries going for explosive runs (10+). Allen fits best as a reliable, early-down and short-yardage back as part of a committee backfield. His limited receiving ability and lack of elite traits likely caps his ceiling in the NFL, but he still possesses the talent and potential to be a complementary power back for an offense at the next level.

@RyanJ_Heath @ScottBarrettDFB puts out my favorite rookie rankings every season, so I'll be interested to compare! For funsies, would it be a huge endeavor to apply your model to past draft classes?

I'm incredibly excited to be throwing my hat and my rookie model in the ring this year. So excited that I wrote nearly 10,000 words on the analytics profiles of 15 different TEs in this class for fantasy football. No paywall for these. Check it out! fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2…

@keithrisorto Which is why it's not worth mentioning his ST performance, which was bad regardless

@complain_papi yeah buddy i think thats the point of spring training. non MLB players get AB’s

Fantasy Baseball community is so worried about velocity this year but it was the same exact thing last year for most of these guys (BTW he had 3K’s in the inning )

@MaysCopeland Are you finding the default 1.5x SB scoring weight to still be current in today's meta?

@complain_papi It's still there, under Settings -> Positions.

@MaysCopeland What's MN?

@MaysCopeland Ah, I meant weekly minimum not seasonal, though I realize I can just multiply

@ZKantzFF I think this is interesting specifically with regards to TEs like Gadsden, Kincaid, and Stowers. Does Gadsden lose work to Kolar, who was fairly athletic and productive in college? Does this cap Stowers's ceiling as a non-blocker?

The trend of 12-man personal packages has steadily increased over the past several years. On average, nearly a quarter of plays were run out of 12 MP in 2025. That's a healthy amount. In fact, it has grown by 5% since 2022. But it seems like this trend is beginning to plateau. Here’s the growth rate since 2022. League Average for 12 Personnel Packages (2022-2025): 2022: 17.26% 2023: 19.19% 2024: 21.77% 2025: 22.77% Growth year by year; • 2022 - > 2023: +1.93% (moderate growth) • 2023 - > 2024: +2.58% (peak growth) • 2024 - > 2025: +0.50% (possible plateau) How has the growth of 12 MP affected production for “move/slot” vs. “inline” tight ends? From 2022-2024, slot tight ends have earned, on average, a 6% higher target share than inline tight ends, despite 12 MP rates increasing. But that trend finally flipped in 2025. In 2025, Inline TE average target share rose to 0.56% vs .45% for move/slot. Here's what that distribution looked like in 2024: Inline TE average target share was 0.45%, with move/slot receiving 0.55%. That’s an increase of 11 percentage points—the biggest difference between the two archetypes since 2022. So what does it all mean? From a macro perspective, it seems the inline TE target distribution has finally caught up with the growing trend toward 12 MP. As a result, it has possibly become the dominant fantasy tight end archetype. This study deserves further interpretation, but it’s a notable crossroads we find ourselves at. Data @SumerSports

@MaysCopeland Did there used to be a minimum innings pitched field? It's being very strongly recommended to me that I hoard relievers in my QS/SVHDs league

@complain_papi Minors. Works the same as bench, but doesn't get moved when syncing with Fantrax.

@MattHarmon_BYB Even after reading this article and watching your deep dive video, I can't value Alec Pierce vs Christian Watson. Watson hugely efficient w/receiving room injured. Now Doubs gone, but still too crowded? Whereas Pierce got a bag, some usage change, and Pittman's gone.

Wrote about the Colts major decisions this offseason to retain Alec Pierce on a big contract, move on from Michael Pittman and tie their fate to Daniel Jones. It's an obvious risky gamble that's ultimately driven by the desire for stability at a position that's been as volatile for the Colts as any team in the league. That desire has the team convinced this will all work out, and they'll recapture the magic from the first 8 weeks of 2025. sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/articl…

@DynastyDaddyFF Does your site account for TEP?

🚨NEW Quality of Life update for the Power Rankings page! You can now toggle through deeper league insights directly from the bar chart. Get a full breakdown of roster spots (WR, RB, QB, Bench, etc.) across your entire league with just a click, swipe, or tap!

@dwainmcfarland Did I miss this? Can't find the post

Rookie Super Model: WR NFL Draft Prospect Profiles start dropping first thing tomorrow AM, y'all 🤠 You will get more every day this week! Next week, we are on to TEs, followed by RBs.

@NoFilm_Analysis I'm wrestling with how to weigh production and athleticism against alignment and blocking. Like we love a big slot TE, but not if he doesn't block enough to stay on the field

For comparison's sake, here are my Top 16 TE NFL Draft prospects since 2018 based on my predictive draft model Kenyon Sadiq down at TE15. Eli Stowers at TE14.

@Ihartitz @MBFantasyLife 100% on the rushing. I'm spooked he's closer to the second coming of Fields long term though (latching onto the Sack%)

@complain_papi @MBFantasyLife Rushing — 31/34 QBs with 100+ rushes have been top-12 per game since 2014 is the provocative stat I’m latching onto (just can’t get benched like 2025 Fields and good grace from the injury gods)

Free agency 3/9 day one fantasy football recap! QB: -Malik Willis —> Dolphins. High volume dual threat QBs rarely bust in fantasy land -Jacoby Brissett will be the starter in Arizona. Yay for Trey McBride and Michael Wilson! (Maybe Marv too!?) -Tua Tagovailoa —> Falcons. Good depth …. but man. 2025 was ROUGH. America loves a comeback though -Marcus Mariota —> Washington. Gonna be some wonky Week 1 starters this year. -Jets, Vikings, Browns still seemingly very much in the QB hunt (cc. Kyler and Geno) RB: -Kenneth Walker —> Chiefs. PAID. Top-six upside in fantasy land thanks to volume and potential for the offense to be sweet again (we’ve been saying this for three straight years) -Travis Etienne —> Saints. PAID. Probably means Kamara is gone? If so, immediately in top-15 conversation -Kenneth Gainwell —> Buccaneers. Not great for Bucky Irving fantasy managers! Not the end of the world, but not great! At least this means Jaylen Warren might finally get a featured ro—oh no -Rico Dowdle —> Steelers. Smells like a messy committee in an offense we don’t really like -JK Dobbins —> Broncos. Doubled up RJ Harvey in touches before injury. People will probably still talk themselves into drafting Harvey first anyways. -Tyler Allgeier —> Cardinals. Would’ve been a lot cooler if we hadn’t just found out James Conner is back. RIP/sucks to suck Trey Benson truthers WR: -Mike Evans —> 49ers. Couldn’t have named a better landing spot. But those injury gods/the electrical plant … -Alec Pierce —> Colts. Boring but good for him getting the bag. Still tough to see super volume spike in same offense. Boom or bust WR3/4 -Michael Pittman —> Steelers. Trade! Pittman to Pittsburgh. How could this not work. Fills need for underneath/intermediate possession receiver. Just need a QB -Wan’Dale Robinson —> Titans. Daboll getting his failed cover band back together. Still a nice piece for an offense that needs em. Volume should be there -Rashid Shaheed —> Seahawks. Hopefully full offseason leads to better production on offense. At least cooterdoodle doesn’t need to buy another jersey -Jalen Nailor —> Raiders. For $35 million! In this economy! -Kendrick Bourne —> Cardinals. Remember those two random weeks when he turned into Jerry Rice last season? -Jahan Dotson —> Falcons. Dozens of us still believe! -Olamide Zaccheaus —> Falcons. He’s good at football. Anyone who says otherwise is a liar and a thief -Jaguars are reportedly listening to trade offers for Brian Thomas. Hey Patriots: Do it. TE: -Isaiah Likely —> Giants. Maybe the No. 2 target? Maybe good ability to get open on the scramble drill meshes perfect with Jaxson Dart? Or maybe the career tweener/backup splits time with Theo Johnson. It’s more fun to root for Likely TE1 szn -Travis Kelce —> Chiefs. Not retiring. Had to pay for Donna’s house renovation. YAC looked good again in 2025 -Cade Otton —> Buccaneers. See? No reason to be sad, Bucs fans. You still got Cade Otton! -Daniel Bellinger —> Titans. lol -Austin Hooper —> Falcons. Sure -Charlie Kolar —> Chargers. Hell yeah brother