Alex Gomes
61 posts




Huge 14-1 run! 🔥 HOT SPOT-UP SHOOTER vs. 2ND-WORST DEFENSE IN THIS CATEGORY 🏀 Sam Merrill over 7.5 points @ 1.80 (0.5%) #LetEmKnow Sam Merrill can be a risky choice against OKC due to how defensively solid they are, but looking at it from a positive angle, it is a good matchup in terms of stylistic fit. OKC allows a lot of shots in spot-up situations, and that is exactly where Merrill thrives: high C&S volume, strong efficiency on those looks, and good conversion off passes. With the addition of James Harden to the Cavs, the creation of opportunities tends to be even greater. It is also worth noting that OKC is shorthanded, which naturally hurts their defensive rating. I used a sample of Sam Merrill against top-10 worst defenses versus spot-up shots, and his hit rate is 90.9% (10/11). To put it into perspective, OKC is the second-worst defense in this category. 📊 Affiliate with @propsmadness Code 𝐀𝐁𝐑𝐀 for 25% propsmadness.com/?ref=abraprops #NBAPicks | #GamblingX


MASSIVE USAGE SPOT 🤞 🏀 Brook Lopez +5.5 points @ 1.67 (0.75%) #ClipperNation Brook Lopez gave us a clear picture of what we can expect for this game in the H2H against the Jazz this season. With 3 and 15 points, you might ask me: “Abra, isn’t this completely 50/50?!” And I answer: that’s true! 😁 BUT what really stood out in these two matchups is that he averaged 12.0 FGA (+6.4) with a 30.4% Usage (+12.3%). And in the game where he scored 3 points, he finished with an awful 1/12 FGM. It would take a lot of bad luck for that to happen again. Either way, the read is very solid, as I expect a high volume of play. When we look at the last 21 games, Brook Lopez has a 52.4% hit rate (11/21) on the +5.5 points line. However, there is a noticeable increase in hit rate in games where he played between 14 and 21 minutes, reaching 60.9% (14/23). And a split like this would be nothing out of the ordinary, considering Brook Lopez averages 17 minutes per game. The match up is as good as it gets for Brook Lopez, considering the Jazz have the WORST defense in the league. What makes this even more interesting is that the perimeter area, where Brook Lopez scores the most, is exactly where the Jazz allow the highest number of points. 7 of the last 8 players with a Brook Lopez–type profile have gone over their respective lines against the Jazz. 📊 Affiliate with @propsmadness Code 𝐀𝐁𝐑𝐀 for 25% propsmadness.com/?ref=abraprops #NBAPicks | #GamblingX

















