Alex

@perry_lin1 @PaulBPrager although I agree with your take that it may strengthen supply demand imbalance in short term, do you not see this as the tip of the iceberg for politicians impacting DC development and economics? Bipartisan everyone hates AI and DCs aside from investors. And elections in fall…

$WULF The management team feels that the market has the Hochul news wrong today. I just got a call from @PaulBPrager and the timelines for Lake Mariner or Cayuga have not moved. In reality, it is a net positive. This will ease some of the backlog in the queue for LM. LM does not require DEC permits so this moratorium will not have an impact. For Cayuga, they can align the build to some of the state goals including green generation if necessary. In the end, both of these sites became more valuable and will garner higher lease rates and NOI. Power is still scarce but even scarcer in NY after this.

@jonaskkaberg1 @Aktiediplomaten Interesting thanks! What do you think about deferred revenue impact in longer term plans? Also curious if they reported shortages in CA and elsewhere have any impact. Long term 📈

@Aktiediplomaten $HIMS numbers q4, my simulation ends at revenue 495 M (Span 485 - 505 M with 80% probability) and gross margin 77,5%. My rev estimate q3 was 396M/78,9% for Q3, against real 401,6M/79,1%. The model is updated whenever there is additional public input from hims.

Let me repost this in light of BofA’s recent estimate for $HIMS Q4 revenue. We’re interpreting the same data very differently. My thesis is based on a regression analysis with an extremely low MAPE, near-perfect correlation, and a p-value close to zero. I have no idea how they’re running their numbers. Let’s see who’s right, shall we?

@Aktiediplomaten Thanks, would love to hear more about the buzz even if anecdotal! Novo obv is going to say shortage is over but until new acquisitions come on line I don’t see things changing. Meanwhile demand continues to grow and they prioritize int’l markets. India and china iirc

Based on a holistic analysis of what Novo is communicating, what the FDA is hinting and buzz on the streets (both from pharmacies and their stocks, but also since tirzepatide is now more popular). But yes, it’s correct that it’s currently listed as unavailable at Amazon pharmacy. At the end of the day it’s just an informed best guess.

To my knowledge, this is the first sell recommendation for $HIMS. Citi cuts their price target to $25. I don’t have any additional information at the moment, but it’s likely related to semaglutide soon coming off the shortage list, which could create some headwinds for the company. Edit: BofA has already had an underperform rating since last year.

@Aktiediplomaten What’s your reasoning for coming off soon? Have you look at inventory levels in the supply chain? Completely sold out and listed as shortage on Amazon pharmacy

@Aktiediplomaten Enjoy following your analysis! Quick question tho, a lot of people are saying sema comes off shortage soon and their reasoning is applying a similar time frame to sema as what tirz had w/r/t fda shortage declaration. However imo the supply demand dynamics are vastly different

@paulcerro What’s the typical time frame from updating status on fda site to officially changing classification? Perhaps that’s our main difference. Agree to some extent but I (no actual data on this) believe price of drug especially for compound users is more important. Thanks

it's a 2-step change. First step is them confirming their is no immediate shortage (which is what you saw) and then step 2 is them marking it as resolved (which addresses the future demand). It was marked as "not in shortage" since end of August I believe but not marked as "resolved" until last week. Price is important but so is supply. Tirzepatide already works better (efficacy) and they aren't in shortage. So you can have providers who don't necessarily feel comfortable prescribing non-FDA approved drugs that can now safely switch to FDA-approved ones with no supply interruption (allegedly). So factor in price but then factor in the ability to get your regular dosages without panicking about where the next once will come from. Price is usually the headline mover but with healthcare it's not just about price all the time.

$HIMS

@paulcerro I see, that’s a different view then. I don’t know what standard timelines are but the FDA website showed no shortage for two months. IMO comp sema doesn’t compete directly with tirz, much more with comp tirz. Ie price more important than drug. Less comp tirz less competition

No no no. Them removing the drug from shortage so soon was a surprise to me. I wasn't even expecting that until the end of the year at best. Also they aren't "allowing" it to be compounded, the judge in the suit accepted the terms offered which was the drug being allowed to be compounded until the second look/suit was completed. It's not that they did a 180 it's just a bridge to an inevitable. And I'd push back on your last point but would love you hear your thoughts on it. Do you mean semaglutide in general or specifically compounded semaglutide in relation to the end of the tirzepatide shortage?

@paulcerro What’s “literally been proven”? Do you think the FDA removing tirz from shortage was a surprise? I don’t. Do you think the FDA changing stance to continue allowing compound tirz was? I do. That’s why it didn’t matter but does now. Removing from shortage arguably bullish for sema

I'm not trying hard at all, it's literally been proven. And not necessarily because it's not just a matter of when a drug manufacturer claims supply shortages are over, FDA needs to calculate on their end of future demand can still be met without supply interruption. I think the compounders suing was just a matter of them getting upset that their cash cow was coming to an abrupt end for Tirzepatide and they would be stuck with inventory.

@cosmo_jiang @Stacks @dYdX @cosmo_jiang Are you bullish on stacks? Haven't heard much (from your Twitter at least) about this project recently & genuinely value your knowledge and insight. Only days away from Nakamoto. Cheers!

@Stacks @dYdX STX Valuation Framework Update x.com/cosmo_jiang/st…

The crypto story of the last few years: 2022 = Bursting of speculative excess 2023 = Headwinds buffeting the industry 2024 = Headwinds becoming Tailwinds... across macro, regulatory, sentiment, and fundamental traction

@DueDoctor Keep trying! Again compounding has decades of legal precedence. Not to mention FDA and US Gov is looking for ways to expand affordable access to GLP1. Your bio says pro America, so you think euro co (novo) should charge Americans 10x more than European for same drug??

@Alex_william25 Another miss by $HIMS Tirz by $LLY is better 🤣 See latest earnings of $LLY $NVO should sue then

I expect $LLY to sue $HIMS to an extreme degree if... No FDA Shortage = cannot sell Every company would love to do no R&D, marketing, FDA Approval, and just make a quick buck You can't, as there's laws against it. $LLY can and should destroy them. This tweet will be in a brief

@DueDoctor Also HIMS literally sells ozempic lmao check their website. Why would a company sue their partners lolol

@DueDoctor Tell me you don’t know what your talking about without telling me you don’t know what your talking about 😂 HIMS compounds novos drug not LLY. Also compounding (both mass and personalized) is legal during shortage which it is (and personalized is legal post shortage).

I longed the top, you shorted the bottom. We are not the same.

@activenodes_io @activenodes_io no injective?

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