DoctorDueDiligence

Why doesn't the US just protect Israel but not directly attack Iran? I got this comment, and some DMs, along these lines. I also see political pundits saying the same thing. This is imo a non starter argument, for the following reasons: 1. In War, Offense is always easier than Defense. Without the implicit agreement of the US defense, Israel's actions are quite different in the Middle East. The truth is that Iran has enough missiles to absolutely overwhelm their missile systems. This is why after October 2023 we saw a troop surge from the US in the Middle East. We also moved USS Carriers and strike groups two at a time to the region, first Ford and Eisenhower, and Bataan then Roosevelt and Lincoln, then Truman and Vinson. Additionally so much missile defense, again because no matter how good your missile defense is you only need a handful to get through. This is also why the US has requested aid from allies in the region like Jordan. 2. Iran likely sees the US as more of an enemy given we are defending Israel and by providing Israel with military technology, tens of billions, and implicit guarantees. If they were to strike down a US carrier which is completely within the realm of possibilities, do we want another boots on the ground invasion in the Middle East? Does it increase the likelihood of terrorist attacks in the US? 3. The DoD budget has increased to factor this in, we have the first $1T budget, this is when we are $37TN in debt. The US has defended Israel intercepting Iranian missiles on April 13, 2024, October 1, 2024, and June 13, 2025. Post Oct. 7th 2023 the US put in a huge order for THAAD missiles. These batteries used to intercept missiles cost $1BN to $1.8BN a piece. This is taxpayer funds. The SM-3s being used cost between $15MM and $28MM. I could go on, but you get the idea. It's not cheap, and obfuscated by being in the DoD budget, not accounting for the $28.8BN Aid we gave to MENA last year. 4. Direct attacks increase Iranian public support for nuclear weapons, not decrease it. The only way to truly prevent with 100% certainty of Iranian developing nuclear weapons is a boots on the ground invasion. Israel has 10MM population, Iran has 90MM. The current regime has become more focused on getting a nuclear weapon, including building incredibly deep underground complexes like Natanz. 5. Peace is preferable. Hated seeing missiles rain down and hit civilians anywhere, including Tel Aviv. 6. Netanyahu was losing support before October 7th, so he wants the wars to escalate, and maintain his power. Look up the mass protests in 2023 after his Judicial Reform changes to limit the Independence of Israel's Supreme Court. Wildly unpopular and was undergoing corruption trials. Given America's implicit guarantee, he can continue to increase the pace and speed of this war and Trump is seemingly not wanting to show there is a fractured split (Trump imo doesn't want war either, and would prefer peace, but willing to save face for Netanyahu). 7. If you are suggesting a complete abandonment of Israel, don't see that as preferable either, and Israel likely ceases to exist in it's current form without US backstop. In Conclusion: America already faces the largest deficit in its entire history today, during peace time, and a war would accelerate that and make it near impossible to pay it off. A future default would have devastating consequences, not just for the US, but literally every country in the world. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) since 2019 has been warning that we need to cut into Mandatory Spending (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Veteran benefits, SSI). In 2019 the Deficit was $16.8TN. This Original 2019 Deficit was a result largely of the first two wars in the Middle East (Iraq, Afghanistan). Whether or not you agree with me on the rest, you have to admit, that a third recent war which is possible if we continue to have an increased presence in the Middle East, while already being $37TN in debt, is not in the best interests of Americans, and especially future generations of Americans. So if directly attacking Iran will not prevent them from developing nuclear weapons because they have multiple deep underground research centers, only slow them down, and Israel doesn't have the military power to destroy those sites without direct US involvement, and it leads to increased tensions in the Middle East and tens of billions of dollars spent by US taxpayers, who does it benefit? The only answer is Netanyahu, who gets to stay in power. If you could make a good faith argument that Israel on it's own, could destroy those sites, I'd hear you out, but in the past 16 months that hasn't been true, and in fact they cannot defend themselves from Iran without the US and US allies help, in fact even with them some damage is occurring directly to Israel (hated to see those attacks in Tel Aviv, and hate all violence and loss of life). The more we allow this to continue, the closer it draws the US into a third recent war in the Middle East, a war which would be the Suicide financially of America and be a drag on the US economy for decades. Inflation, lower quality of life, death of service members/disability/PTSD and allow more powerful, focused economies to emerge, and possibly overtake the US. The debt is the most important thing, the US cannot be destroyed from overseas, only from within... "At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide." -Abraham Lincoln

US 🇺🇸 should focus on

SCOOP: The Pentagon asked the White House today for more than *$200 billion* for the Iran war supplemental, sources say Some White House aides think Congress won't support b/c it's so big Will tee up giant battle in Congress

🤔 so DeepSeek in China used H800s according to a lot of people in my feed but Singapore is suddenly buying billions of Chinese sanctioned H100s per quarter 🤔 Interesting...

$qure, it is getting way more uglier than many of us could imagine: Marty Makary got almost $700k grant and Vinay Prasad $2M from Arnold Ventures/foundation and CBER deputy director Katherine Szarama used to work at AV. Who else at FDA have financial ties with AV?

Don't say I didn't warn you $RXRX

BREAKING: Study shows “doomscrolling” is growing amongst boomers, leaving grandchildren concerned.

Hard to describe the exact moment a VC decides you’re of zero value mid-convo and finds the fastest possible exit