@DrewSav This may be your wildest video game take. Undertale is great!
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Alexander Park
1.2K posts
I remember playing Undertale. I thought it was weird and stupid. Never played it again.
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@SteveInFoxboro @SeanTrende I get that Collins has been very electorally resilient, but I'm still not getting Sean's meaning.
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@AlexanderHSPark @SeanTrende Collins has a pretty charmed electoral history in Maine. She's easily outpaced losing GOP presidential candidates (Dole by 18, McCain by 21 and Trump by 6) in the state and won in 2020 despite literally every poll having her behind.
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Having lived through 2020, I will believe that Susan Collins will no longer be a senator from Maine when the last ballot is counted, making it mathematically impossible for her to be a senator from Maine.
Timothy B. Lee@binarybits
Graham Platner is looking pretty good in polls against Susan Collins in Maine (RCP has him at +7 on average), but people shouldn't forget how things went in 2020.
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@DrewSav I’ll have you know, he has friends in high places in Kings Landing.
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@DrewSav Is this right? I thought that using the "talking filibuster" just took a bare majority, insofar as it's just a rule change.
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Thune keeps (gently) trying to remind Trump and the GOP base that at the end of the talking filibuster you have a vote that requires 60 votes. If you don't have 60 then it doesn't pass.
Sahil Kapur@sahilkapur
Just now: THUNE weighs in on the "talking filibuster," saying leadership has thoroughly examined it (much as Democrats did when they were in charge) and he finds it "very hard to see" it working. "And we can't find a piece of legislation in history that's been passed that way."
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@umichvoter I don't dispute that, but I can't help but think he's doing okay despite his poor campaign. He hasn't been prepared for the (admittedly disturbing) things brought up by opposition research at all. He just happens to be the youngest candidate.
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@AlexanderHSPark We'll Platner is raising a lot of money and is polling well so that seems to be more of a voters really like him *inspite* of his history
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Subjective rating: how each Dem US Senate candidate is running/ran their campaign, in my opinion
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@DrewSav Plus - most airlines don't make the majority of their $ on the flights . They charge that much and make (relatively speaking) little profit.
To be as far as possible to the industry, it is wild that you could pay as "little" as a $1000 and to around the world (and back again)!
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I haven't flown in over a decade so I had no idea what flights cost today. Jesus christ they got expensive.
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@SeanTrende I think that's true, but also I don't know that I'd trust internal polling to be any less volatile than what's publicly available. I get the sense that no one really knows the true state of play here.
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People are mocking the Harris endorsement and to be clear we shouldn’t read *too* much into it, but it’s probably not something she does if the Talarico+10 polls are supported by the weight of internal polling.
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@OrinKerr The notion that the Court would deny such a motion to a lawyer in good standing (which would not just impact the movant, but also those who seek admission) is honestly absurd.
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FWIW, open-court bar admissions are a courtesy that the Supreme Court provides to counsel. The moving lawyer has a script; the Chief Justice has a script; and the attorneys admitted get to see an argument and feel connected to the Court. It's not supposed to be stressful.
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@SeanTrende I think betting markets are good at a specific thing (at least in the world of politics): quantifying the "popular" wisdom.
But sometimes the "wisdom of crowds" is based on vibes, not data, leading to potential blind spots.
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Betting markets are good, but they often reflect a bias toward elite preference.
Matthew Chapman@fawfulfan
I have to admit, I don't see the case for the odds being 4:1 for Talarico. The race reads like a pure tossup to me right now. Polls show a close race, with Crockett up a little if anything, and nothing in early vote turnout patterns suggests an obvious Talarico advantage.
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@admcrlsn "Don't ask questions" is definitely an interesting position to take.
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So if you read the replies, this dude —who is an academic — doesn’t really think Lakshya is dishonest.
No criticism of the question wording, data integrity, or methodology.
He just doesn’t think now is the right time to poll on trans sports.
And doesn’t like the results.
Keith Orejel@keithdorejel
After David Shor, I think Jain is one of the least trustworthy Dem pollsters.
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@SeanTrende I don't have the underlying order, but based on the VA S. Ct.'s order it appears the scope of the injunction was limited to obligating the clerk to post the ref language at least 90 days before the next general. Is that accurate? If so, not much to stay either way.
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No one listens to me, and that's fine, but honestly, the Supreme Court of Virginia very much cares about process and rules, and you can't read between the lines of the rulings in the same way you can in other states.
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Referendum must go forward because the court below didn't do a statewide injunction and we're Virginia and don't do the work for you. Also, the last sentence makes clear that they aren't prohibited from arguing underlying issues, including that the amendment is void ab initio.
Physics Geek@physicsgeek
Since the referendum itself violates state law this opinion is stupid. 1) Illegal referendum must be allowed to go forward before we rule 2) Referendum was passed and it is now part of the VA constitution and we cannot act The courts are not going to save you.
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@DrewSav Wait. Does it not have a full season coming already? I’m crushed.
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Disney has spent years unsuccessfully trying to make The Muppets relevant with kids again. The solution has been staring them in the face all along: lean into the adults who earnestly love them. I would resubscribe to Disney+ if this gets a full season.
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The Muppets fanbase has long been adults who grew up with them in the 80's/90's and it seems like the new Muppet Show is leaning into that.
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The excerpted case can be found here: coa1.azcourts.gov/Portals/1/Opin…
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The Arizona Court of Appeals (Div. 1) has made note of hallucinated case citations in two separate decisions in as many days. #AppellateTwitter
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You can find the job postings in the "News" section of the Court's webpage: coa1.azcourts.gov
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An excellent #AppellateJob opportunity for law students who are about to graduate and young AZ attorneys:
Several judges of the Ariz. Court of Appeals (Div. 1) are accepting applications for clerkships starting *this summer*. Deadline is a week from today (2/9). #AppellateJobs
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@SeanTrende While I’m admittedly biased as I practice there, I think Arizona falls into that bucket.
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@AlexanderHSPark Which other ones would you place in that bucket?
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The Supreme Court of Virginia doesn’t map nicely onto ideological labels. It’s the last small-c conservative, institutionalist, stickler-for-details courts out there. No idea how this goes
SCOTUS Wire@scotus_wire
🚨 A Virginia judge has BLOCKED a Democrat-backed redistricting amendment, ruling that the special session was expanded without the necessary votes and that early voting had already begun by that time.
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