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Sean T at RCP
84.8K posts
Sean T at RCP
@SeanTrende
Sr. Elections Analyst, @RCPolitics, Visiting Scholar, @AEI, Lecturer, @osupolisci. Recovering Attorney. Husband, Dad. Writes about elections, history and more.
Katılım Mart 2010
1K Takip Edilen71.5K Takipçiler
@gribbo586 @Heminator It's honestly all power plays. I think packing SCOTUS is basically the end of Article III -- the stakes are that high. But if that's something people can live with, they absolutely can do it.
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@gribbo586 @Heminator That's basically correct. We can ask ourselves whether Rs were really norm breaking given that influential Democrats had said multiple times that they weren't going to consider nominees from R presidents in election years, but still. 1/
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The big difference here is that the Utah Supreme Court was demonstrably unethical and corrupt.
National Dems want to pack SCOTUS because it’s ruling against their unconstitutional schemes.
Ben Yelin@byelin
I think it's very important that we stop talking so publicly about this stuff and just do it if we win power. I'm not hte first one to make this point, but Utah Republicans didn't campaign on packing the courts. There weren't think pieces on it. They just did it quietly.
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@SeanTrende What it inevitably invites? You talking about pushback? Trolling? Counterpoints? Hey, I’m going to listen to it because I’m broad minded, honest, fair. Hard to believe some label me as MAGA, eh?
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I hesitate to add this given what it inevitably invites, but Stubborn Things has 14 Apple reviews and a perfect 5.0 rating. Great positive feedback on being “fact-based,” “fair-minded,” and “educational” style. Take an hour this weekend and give a listen; you might like it!
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@gribbo586 @Heminator The thruline for all nominations is "if you have the votes you get confirmed and if you don't, you don't." I wish they'd been more up front about it in 2016. I can come up with all sorts of justifications, rationales and distinctions, but that's the bottom line.
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@SeanTrende @Heminator Agree it’s a different animal for US SCOTUS. Having terms be set for life ups the stakes & encourages drastic behavior on both sides. I hate court packing but also hated when the GOP held Scalia’s seat in 16 for dubious reasons & then jettisoned them for ACB. That was calvinball
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@gribbo586 @Heminator Arizona was court packing. Georgia was more like Utah. And doing it to the US Supreme Court--which has no retention elections, age limits, or other checks--to the point where it tips the "partisan" balance is another ball of wax altogether.
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@SeanTrende @Heminator Georgia and Arizona also added justices to their supreme courts. I’m not a fan of court packing but it diminishes the credibility of the argument when state GOP court packs themselves.
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@Heminator Utah Rs added two justices. They lost the decision 5-0. What Democrats want to do federally would be like Utah Republicans adding six seats. They’re only gonna get control because of justice for tired and then because of this mess.
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Sean T at RCP retweetledi
Trade Wilton & Ridgefield for Southington
Drew@DiehardOsfan55
A fair map of CT still does not produce a Trump district
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@bradewatson @jaycost @aei_STpodcast Ha I read that. We have a couple of disagreements with you (and each other)
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Well folks, @jaycost and I just finished grading Presidents Lincoln thru McKinley for @aei_STpodcast. And, well, any former students who think we grade to hard should see what we've done to our Chief Executives.
Tune in next week!
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@SeanTrende @jaycost @aei_STpodcast My priors before listening: Lincoln S, Johnson D, Grant B, Hayes D, Arthur C, Cleveland C combined, Hayes B, McKinley A. Love this series.
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@MattGlassman312 Last thought on the filibuster, the idea of partially repealing it is nonsense. Once it’s gone for some things it’s gone for everything. I think it’s unnecessary under the original constitution, but it really is one of the last structural checks on the majority remaining.
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@MattGlassman312 Perhaps an amendment to the statute would simply say that any court ordered redistricting must change the enacted plan as little as possible. I don’t know. Occupying the field is probably the cleanest way to do it.
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Some (very) rough thoughts about constitutional hardball and democratic reform:
blog.mattglassman.net/thoughts-on-co…
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@mattmxhn It won't. If you want to, you can add in a "no partisan info may be used" parameter.
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@SeanTrende Ultimately Democrats are going to have to accept some form of geographic (compactness/splitting) rule that can be straightforwardly verified in court, but they're not going to accept one on offer if it's trivially easily for them to prove it screws them nationally
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People treat a simple compactness/minimal splits criterion as if it does nothing. That’s wrong. It’s basically what Bernie Grofman and I use for 95% of our work in Virginia. It would help a lot, and be far less controversial than the so-called partisan fairness measures.
Hunter📈🌈📊@StatisticUrban
A maximally compact map would, in many states, genuinely much better than what we have right now.
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@mattmxhn Uh-huh. What do you think Ds are *about* to get in GA?
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@SeanTrende I mean, take GA - a strict ban on splits does nothing to defend D against this 5-9 map but it locks Dems out of the converse - even a neutral map - since they can't unlock any counties in ATL metro. repeat for MSP, Detroit, PHL, Chicago collars, aforementioned OH/WI...
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@mattmxhn Don't be silly -- It's nowhere near a total lockout across the Midwest; Ds in Ohio have five seats and would have more under this suggestion (Ohio's rules were terribly drafted). Ds would actually pick up quite a few seats across the South.
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@SeanTrende I quibble, but say we grant that - 20% of the House is west of the Rockies, so total lockout across the Midwest / Rust Belt for ... seats Dems already wield?
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@mattmxhn And Democrats would get screwed in WI. But west of the Rockies, like, for example, CA, Ds would do great.
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@cars0000n That's basically my reply to the partisan fairness folk. If you want that stuff, switch to PR. Otherwise, having areas represented in Congress is what should matter.
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@SeanTrende Hot take but what’s the point of single member districts versus just going full PR when most people can’t even name their member of Congress? We’re in such an interconnected world plus politics is so nationalized now that sometimes I struggle to see the point in districts anymore
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@katrosenfield (I think he's talked about some alcohol tragedy in his family or close friends in his lifetime that shaped him on this)
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I repeat myself, but alcohol has been an engine of human connection, creativity, and civilization-building throughout millennia; a world without it would be utterly impoverished compared to the one we've built
Dilan Esper@dilanesper
Not to me. Drinking is bad. That doesn't mean you are a bad person if you do it, but the more teetotalers the better.
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