@aleabitoreddit The only one who has not run at all is $SHMD. The rest are up a lot already. What do you think?
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Alin
2 posts
Digitimes: $GLW leads glass core substrate vs. KCC and LX Glass
"Glass core substrates ... are key to next-generation advanced semiconductor packaging".
On top of its structural importance, the commercialization timeline for glass core packaging seems to be accelerating as well. We're close to H2 and 2027 is probably the inflection point.
I do have positions in the glass core names upstream, but recent news confirms the importance.
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@FinnStockinger $SHMD and Trumpf partnership is big. Many photonics names who had 500-1000% runs they are in bad shape financially but doesn’t mean they won’t be able to deliver. Look $IQE for example. Now glass substrates are needed so much easier to get right the balance sheet.
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Reconsidering $SHMD – Holding for now
After letting the initial reaction cool off, I’ve had a few more thoughts on the glass substrate adoption curve.
With the broad market catching a green wave today, I’m pausing the plan to sell immediately.
Regarding $SHMD:
➡️The Sweet Spot: Technologically, they are exactly where they need to be. Their positioning in the current tech cycle is undeniable.
➡️The Financial Risk: This remains my biggest concern. While I’m staying in for the moment, I’ll be watching the balance sheet like a hawk.
I’m holding the line for now, but keeping a very tight stop. Let’s see if this rally has legs.
Finn Stockinger@FinnStockinger
$SHMD: Revolutionary Tech, Broken Balance Sheet - I’m OUT! I’m closing my position on $SHMD today. I entered the trade last week with high hopes, but after several days of deep-diving into the glass substrate roadmap and the company's fundamentals, I’ve decided to step aside. ➡️The Tech is Real, the Timeline Isn't I remain fascinated by Schmid’s technology. Their vertical processing and wet-etching solutions are world-class and will undoubtedly play a critical role in the transition to glass substrates. However, the industry’s shift isn't happening as fast as the hype suggests and as I was primarilly thought. The Red Flags: Why I’m Out Despite the technical brilliance, the financial reality is impossible to ignore: ➡️Financial Distress: The company’s balance sheet is under immense pressure. With recent quarterly losses ($1.02 EPS) and a desperate need for convertible note financing just to keep the lights on, the risk of further dilution is extremely high. ➡️Sell-Side Pressure: Market sentiment has soured, with major analysts recently downgrading the stock to "Sell." The heavy short interest (up over 30% recently) suggests that the "smart money" is betting on further downward movement. ➡️Cash Flow Gap: While they are securing orders, the gap between "securing an order" and "having cash in the bank" is a valley of death for a company with $SHMD’s current liquidity profile. ⬇️The Bottom Line: Schmid is a classic case of great tech vs. terrible financials. I love the engineering, but I can't stay married to a stock that’s bleeding cash while the industry's adoption curve remains a moving target. I’m out for now. $SHMD belongs on the watchlist for the tech, but off the portfolio for the risk.
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