Lucas Almada-Sabate

201 posts

Lucas Almada-Sabate

Lucas Almada-Sabate

@AlmadaSabate

Healthcare investing | current @harvardHBS, former @TAAssociates @BCG, @PennBioEng, @Wharton, @Regeneron 🇺🇸🇦🇷🇪🇸

New York, USA Katılım Ekim 2019
541 Takip Edilen173 Takipçiler
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Lucas Almada-Sabate
Lucas Almada-Sabate@AlmadaSabate·
I am not a doomer on job loss in consulting and finance. I’ve spent time at @BCG and @TAAssociates, and I can say with HIGH confidence that if we had access to novel productivity tools, we would simply… Do more work — Evaluate more investments, do deeper analysis for clients.
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Gabriela Sabate
Gabriela Sabate@gsabate·
@AlmadaSabate Financial realities set in if thinking IPO: massive compute, cost, and competitive pressure force them to realign priorities.
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Lucas Almada-Sabate
Lucas Almada-Sabate@AlmadaSabate·
Would love to hear the community’s thoughts on Manus as a tool for coding agents. @HarvardHBS gives us licenses, and so far had an easy time making a simple agent that pulls class materials. I like that the agents live in .py files, which makes sense to me. #Manus #claudecode
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Eddie Hammond
Eddie Hammond@HammondEddie·
Have decided that there is public value in publishing my internal yaps, welcome to day 0
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Lucas Almada-Sabate
Lucas Almada-Sabate@AlmadaSabate·
The issue with thinking the market is 15 turns (50%!) too low on terminal value is that if the market never ends up agreeing with you (see: moving the goalposts), the only way to make your hand is to hold the assets to… infinity, which does not jive with closed-ended funds
The Icahnist@TheIcahnist

BREAKING: Thoma Bravo just released their LP meeting slides. The world's largest software PE firm thinks the market has it completely wrong on software right now. Public markets are panic-selling software based on AI fear. Here's what they're seeing:

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Lucas Almada-Sabate
Lucas Almada-Sabate@AlmadaSabate·
Prediction: there will be more human software engineers in 5 years than today. I’d expect them to work in-house across the economy — as opposed to at software companies — as the cost of developing software (time and money) decreases dramatically
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Lucas Almada-Sabate
Lucas Almada-Sabate@AlmadaSabate·
I am also long the idea of G&A savings across the economy from AI getting funneled into S&M, which $META captures Not sure about unmonetized Reels / Threads (feels like plenty of ads shown there), but agreed on low price for this level of quality and growth
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Lucas Almada-Sabate
Lucas Almada-Sabate@AlmadaSabate·
@rexsalisbury And as it pertains to the shape of any given curve, it’s just the normal IRR progression of a series of independent pooled investments. Generating 50% IRR for 1 year is a lot easier than for 6 years, especially as your # of investments in a vintage / fund increases over time
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Rex Salisbury
Rex Salisbury@rexsalisbury·
VC IRR decay for 2017 and 2018 has been bad. And this was before the SaaSpocalypse. IRRs driven by big positions held at last round valuations. What would they look like at true fmv?
Rex Salisbury tweet media
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Lucas Almada-Sabate
Lucas Almada-Sabate@AlmadaSabate·
There is simply no way to unseat the dollar right now. Trust in the US Treasury is absolute, meaning: 1) Govt gets to continue injecting treasuries at low rates 2) T’s are the most liquid market in the world for holding FX reserves Flywheel is powered by this network effect!
Tanning Salon Don@TheSalonDon

The “Petrodollar” is a system enforced by the US military that makes oil priced in USD That means every country needs to exchange to USD and have USD reserves to buy oil Which allows the US to print trillions with minimal inflation If that is challenged. Your middle class life is over

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Lucas Almada-Sabate
Lucas Almada-Sabate@AlmadaSabate·
Is it just me or is the vibe shifting from “enterprise SaaS is dead bc vibecoding” to “we will all have agentic layers plugging into and orchestrating the legacy SaaS” Long $CRM, $WDAY, maybe even $CSU
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Lucas Almada-Sabate
Lucas Almada-Sabate@AlmadaSabate·
Odd take imo. Token cost will obviously decrease over time (that’s what all the capex is for, and there will be more)!
Mark Cuban@mcuban

This is the smartest counter I’ve seen to ai taking over jobs, in the short term. Is the ((aggregate tokens cost to do what an employee does + plus fully encumbered developer and maintenance costs ) / (fully encumbered employee cost ) )<= productivity ? If it takes 8 Claude agents, at $300 for tokens, per day, plus $200 per day in dev/maint , to do what an employee does per day, at a fully encumbered cost of $1200. That’s 2600/1200. But then you need to factor in the productivity rate. Is it more than 2.16 x productive ? Are there qualitative issues like morale, morality, whatever , that can’t be quantified, that need to go into the decision? What is the going forward progression of burdened costs for the tokens ? Curious what people think about this ?

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Lucas Almada-Sabate
Lucas Almada-Sabate@AlmadaSabate·
Twitter slowly coming to the realization that if 50% of society becomes the permanent underclass, then everyone becomes permanent underclass
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Lucas Almada-Sabate
Lucas Almada-Sabate@AlmadaSabate·
Prediction: this will get turned around and approved in 2026
Moderna@moderna_tx

Today we announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER) has notified Moderna that it will not initiate a review of the biologics license application (BLA) for our investigational influenza vaccine, mRNA-1010, and has issued a Refusal-to-File letter. Read more: feeds.issuerdirect.com/news-release.h…

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Lucas Almada-Sabate retweetledi
Erik
Erik@erikinscience·
@alexalbert__ The parallel to coding's trajectory makes sense, though knowledge work has a stickier problem: most tasks require institutional context that's never written down. Will be fascinating to see how Claude navigates the unspoken rules of corporate deliverables
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Lucas Almada-Sabate retweetledi
Nikhil Krishnan
Nikhil Krishnan@nikillinit·
someone at this JPM panel said the future of healthcare interoperability is going to end up being teleoperated humanoid bots sending faxes to each other to get information
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Keşfet

@gsabate @HarvardHBS @HammondEddie @rexsalisbury @alexalbert__ @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13