Alpha Talon Investment Research Limited.

New Alpha Talon Substack piece: “The Strait and the Strike”: a game-theory map of the Middle East escalation. Markets aren’t trading headlines; they’re trading Hormuz, shipping/insurance stress, and the inflation to rates reaction. We lay out incentives + scenarios, then translate them into conservative portfolio hedges. Read: open.substack.com/pub/alphatalon…

Well that worked out well, we called the fall from high to 150, we exited at around 200.

1- WARRANTS The biggest mistake the market makes is assuming that 60 million warrants simply dilutes the share price to zero. These warrants are not free shares; they have strict strike prices. If the 30M Series A warrants are exercised at $1.50, the warrant holders must physically wire Milestone $45 million in cash. If the 30M Series B warrants are exercised at $1.87, they must wire another $56.1 million in cash. Yes, the share count goes up, but Milestone’s treasury instantly grows by over $100 million. When you factor in the ~$200 million in pro forma cash they already hold, a fully-diluted $MIST would be sitting on a massive cash war chest. Because Enterprise Value (EV) subtracts cash, the actual underlying valuation of the commercial business remains incredibly cheap. 2- WOULD IT CAUSE IMMEDIATE SELL-OFF? an institution isn't exercising a warrant just to break even on the strike price. To generate a true, reportable yield for their fund, the underlying stock price must exceed: Warrant Strike Price + Initial Warrant Premium + Time Cost of Capital. 3- ATM Regarding the ~25M shares left on the ATM: an ATM is just an open line of credit, not a mandatory sell order. Management already executed their capital raise and built a $200 million runway to fund the Express Scripts launch. Oliveto has zero financial need to tap an ATM while the stock is heavily depressed at these levels. Management typically saves the ATM for when the stock violently re-rates on a major catalyst (like the upcoming DoD formulary vote or a CVS/OptumRx contract), allowing them to raise capital at $4.00 or $5.00 by selling very few shares.

The best thing you’ll read today.

The dilution is a valid concern and potentially larger than noted, following the July 2025 offering, which likely caps near-term upside and makes the stock feel 'heavy', but those are not outside of our expectation. Our thesis assumes this dilution was the necessary cost to bridge CARDAMYST from a regulatory story to a commercial one. For a 2–3 year horizon, the question isn't whether there is dilution, but whether the commercial execution in the PSVT market can create enough value to outrun the expanded share count. We believe the move from high-cost ER visits to patient self-administration provides that fundamental tailwind, but the burden is now entirely on management to prove they can convert launch spend into repeatable revenue". $MIST is still a very high potential company in our view, hope this helps!

@smallcapharma What's your take on 30m series A warrants $1.5 SP July 2026 expiring 30m series B warrants $1.87 SP July 2030 expiring Potentially ~25m shares ATM left at these prices . A lot of potential dilution I guess $MIST @_Biotech_iQ @AlphaTalon2025 @ssunten_

IMPORTANCE OF THE NEEDHAM PRESENTATION $MIST is at the Needham Healthcare Conference next week to pivot the narrative from "clinical cash-burn" to "commercial revenue engine." Institutions buy based on the 1-on-1s. Watch for major accumulation as the Express Scripts data gets shared behind closed doors. The stock may skyrocket further following the $MIST Needham presentation on April 13th🚀 investors.milestonepharma.com/news-releases/…

Do retail clothing turnarounds ever work? Seems like a brutally hard business challenge. lululemon $LULU and Shoe Carnival $SCVL insiders have bought recently, but neither seems to have any indicators that things are getting better. At least $LULU is cheap and has international growth

We are looking to hire an equity research intern at @AurelionRsch, an independent equity research firm focused on global equities and commodities. If you are a college student based in the U.S. or in Canada and interested in joining a growing research firm, feel free to DM me.

Added 46 new stock write-ups to the site (pt 1): @Szew_invest (holdings) - $IPO.L, $OTB.L, $EUK3.F, $HYQ.DE, $MEGP.L, $GPP.WA @ValueInvestingZ - $BGC @AlphaTalon2025 - $KHC @BlokeOak57182 - $XTR.L @jarrattdavis - $3907.T (watchlist) @WolfOfOakville - $IFA.TO (earnings)

As expected, Reuters could not verify the Axios report of the 45 day truce.

A peace deal flew over my house today from David Barak

The most asymmetric Iran War trade isn't oil, plastic, or fertilizer. It's Tungsten. And the upside is explosive whether the war ends or not. APT (the key tungsten raw material) was $320 in early 2025. Today it's approaching $3,000. Nearly 10x in 13 months. It's because China imposed export controls on 41 tungsten product codes. Exports dropped to zero. And for the first time ever, China became a net IMPORTER. The country controlling 79% of global production can't supply itself... Meanwhile the US and Israel have burned through unprecedented volumes of munitions across the Middle East, and NATO stockpiles are already depleted from years of supplying Ukraine. The Iran war is exacerbating an already historic supply crunch. Tungsten is in every artillery shell, tank penetrator, missile counterweight, gyroscope, and radiation shield NATO builds. When fired at 1,700 m/s, it doesn't come back. Zero recycling. Gone forever. Rheinmetall is scaling to 1.1M shells/year. Russia burned 4.5M rounds in 2024 alone. Only TWO western producers exist at scale. $ALM trades at $6B MC. $EQR.AX trades at $1B MC. Yet $EQR.AX produced nearly 3x more tungsten last quarter than $ALM. It sits on 11.27M mtu worth $24.8B against a $1B market cap. It's the lowest cost western producer. Two operating mines. First positive cashflow already hit. Me and @KawzInvests just dropped our Tungsten deep dive on Substack. It's the most comprehensive deep dive into the tightest critical mineral market since Lithium in 2021. S/o @BULLOFBRITAIN for being one of the first to call this insane trade. It's a lottery ticket but the odds aren't random.

It is a very hard situation to handle for Bessent. 1. The manufacturing push by Trump needs exports to be competitive, meaning a weaker dollar to given for manufacturing in US to be competitive on the world stage. -> Weaker dollar = Stronger incentives to sell. 2. The disregard for allies in this war led to collocations to be weakened and the Us threatening leaving NATO is leading partners to reconsider the US-debt as something they want on the balance sheet. -> Weaker alliances = Treasuries being sold 3. As the US needs to refinance 30% of $30 trillion USD over the next 2 years, they are caught. As allies and Asia sell USD and Treasuries, yields spike higher, making it very expensive to refinance the debt. -> Higher refinance rate = Inflate USD to repay debt. 4. Add to it a potentially weakening of the petro-dollar, credit stress and a potential recession... This war will cost way way more than almost everyone sees, the Oil is the tip of the iceberg.

BREAKING: Trump says that biotech M&A may pick up in the next few weeks. SENIOR IRANIAN SOURCE: NO BIOTECH M&A TALKS HAVE TAKEN PLACE

BREAKING: The IRGC is now charging tolls, with rates starting at $1 per barrel of oil, on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, paid in Chinese Yuan or stablecoins, per Bloomberg. The process includes: 1. To pass, ship operators must first contact an intermediary company linked to the IRGC 2. They then provide their vessel’s ownership, flag, the cargo manifest, destination, crew list, and transponder information 3. The intermediary then passes the file onto the IRGC Navy’s Hormozgan Provincial Command for background checks to ensure no link to the US or Israel 4. Iran has a ranking system of 1 to 5 for nations, with ships from countries that are seen as friendly more likely to get better terms Once the toll is paid, the IRGC issues a permit code and route instructions for the ship to pass.

The entire market was expecting President Trump's address to the nation to be de-escalatory. Instead, he said the war will continue until late-April, threatened to strike Iranian power plants, and said Iran will be sent back to the "stone age." Oil prices have all your answers.

I stayed up all night studying the Strait of Hormuz Trying to figure out what the situation means for investors Here's what I found after 12+ hours of intense research: The blue stuff is called "water" and ships can travel through it much better than the yellow stuff (called "land") Ships can take oil through water, but not through land. Wow.

Okay let’s figure out what’s going on down here.

🚨 New Analysis Alert: Our latest deep dive on $KHC is live on Substack. We unpack the company’s storied history, the costly missteps post-merger, and the bold “Growth Architect” transformation underway. Why KHC is a compelling value stock with growth optionality — offering a 7.2% yield while the market catches up. Read the full institutional-grade analysis & investment thesis here: open.substack.com/pub/alphatalon…