I havent done a deep dive thread in a while, let alone a credit/distressed pitch, so let's give it a go. Alliance Aviation $AQZ.AX
High level: this is an 'existential bet' type trade. You are simply betting it doesn't get restructured at these kinds of prices. Ie going from simply 'imminent B/K' to 'very bad' and the stock doubles.
Obviously - this is a higher-risk security. There is risk in getting zeroed. This is a small-cap stock. This is a >2% position of my NAV. DYODD.
All that said, dive in... 👇👇
Going to start posting some of our highest-conviction ideas here.
Would be interested to connect with other deep-value or special situation investors.
I'm particularly interested in nano/micro caps in Japan and the UK, but will consider anything globally.
#JET2 has sneaked out another profit warning, this time for FY27, through its broker. Poor form.
Pricing and cost pressures have gradually eroded their profit margins since the pandemic.
I'll review them again once Gatwick investment out the way and if margins stabilise.
@InvestSpecial This is my highest-conviction position for 2026/27.
Currently trading pretty much at net-cash, which is absurd for such a high quality business.
10/ $JET2.L pitch by Plural Investing
Founder-led (21% stake) package holiday business with a 22% UK market share, trading at just 7x P/FCF. Jet2 has the strongest competitive position, top-tier management, a long runway for double-digit growth, and substantial net cash.
I think someone with $500k could earn incredible returns with very low risk by doing the following:
1) Look at every company on an exchange beneath $100mm.
2) Follow news flow and filings on everything small.
3) Identify special situations from 1 and 2 above.
Basically spend 4-6 hours a day looking at businesses and filings.
The crumbs of capitalism are huge. If you live on the tails you'll find things that pay off in short order, while taking very little risk.
Go look at what Buffett did when he was 22 years old. Those things still exist, but nobody will tell you about them.
The problem is you grow out of it pretty quickly. But man it's fun while you're doing it.
Not financial advice, of course. Just one guy's input.
@everynetnet Yeah that's true. There is also something comforting about using a few different sources to make a decision. I love your focus on NCAV and TBV ( I use both)
@JarrattDavis Data sources vary from various sources so that’s why I’m hesitant to provide financials in-site. I also think it would kind of be re-inventing the wheel, as there are definitely other sites that do financials data very well already.
Current users, let us know your thoughts:
"On the EveryNetNet website, I'd be more likely or prefer to..."
1: Use a different service or website to learn more about the financials (Yahoo Finance, filings, etc.)
2: View financial information directly within the EveryNetNet site
🤔 Seriously considering moving away from the U.K.
Any suggestions?
Musts:
- Decent weather.
- European/U.S. timezone preferred.
- Low tax.
- English Law and Language both regarded highly.
Must Not:
- Be Dubai.
Discounted cash flow to us is sort of like the Hubble telescope - you turn it a fraction of an inch and you're in a different galaxy. There are just so many variables in this kind of analysis - that's not for us. -- Curtis Jensen
I am not a fan on China stocks but listen 📢
$CAAS is giving a sweet 20% dividend in a week. You are still on time to get paid for free in a stock trading far below NCAV.
Give some love to china and to this tweet 💪
@everynetnet Another thing that would be great is to also add some earnings filter. To eliminate start-ups that are just burning through cash. Cash-positive net-nets are the real gold.