Jeffrey W. Huge, CMT

🔥Hot Off The Press!🔥 HUGE INSIGHTS: The Big Picture - Issue #56 "DUNE" Please enjoy the free portion of the attached monthly investment newsletter with our compliments! hugeinsights.substack.com/p/huge-insight…

Hmmm...

@T_Harth The wave count can be different in different indexes. The observation is that the S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index has not made a new high. It is a non-confirmation that calls the new high in the S&P 500 Cap-Weight index into question.

@Alpha_Insights Yeah sure

Hmmm...

@T_Harth SO far, it doesn't appear to have retraced even 78.6% of wave 1.

@Alpha_Insights Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave 1 That is there in the book lol Anyways to each their own view It can be a Wave B tho that I can agree on

@T_Harth It’s not my job to convince you… Maybe you should just reread the “Elliott Wave Principle” by Frost and Prechter

@Alpha_Insights Well SPY also has... Can't be wave 2

@T_Harth there are always stocks that have made new highs

@Alpha_Insights There are stocks that have made New Highs already so cannot be a wave 2 Wave B possible tho but can be a complex then too

👀

Feel free to DM me if you want to know how we do it.

Our "Perfect Portfolio" global tactical asset allocation model is KILLING IT (again) at +1,500 bps vs. the S&P 500 YTD. As such, we thought that it might be helpful for investors who are interested in growing their wealth in 2026 to give our March newsletter a second look. The next issue is scheduled for publication on April 4th.

🔥Hot Off The Press!🔥 HUGE INSIGHTS: The Big Picture - Issue #55 "Bringing Home the Gold" Please enjoy the free portion of the attached monthly investment newsletter with our compliments! hugeinsights.substack.com/publish/post/1…

Given current market conditions, we thought it might be helpful for investors to re-read (or read) our February newsletter in order to better understand the factors that are influencing the market today and how we expect it to resolve. Have a look below...

🔥🔥 Hot Off The Press! 🔥🔥 HUGE INSIGHTS: The Big Picture - Issue #54 "The Law of Inevitability" Please enjoy the free portion of the attached monthly investment newsletter with our compliments! hugeinsights.substack.com/p/huge-insight…

We further added our longer-term expectation for yields to move even higher...See below:

As we wrote back on January 7th, in our Substack newsletter -- HUGE INSIGHTS: The Big Picture: "The consensus view is that long-term rates are going lower because the Fed is in easing mode. But a review of how 10-year Treasury yields reacted to the Fed’s 100 bps in easing during 4Q24 might be instructive as to why we believe their is an above average risk that long-term Treasury yields may be setting up to repeat that performance in 1Q26. As illustrated in the chart below, the 10-year Treasury yield has been working higher since the October 29th FOMC decision to make a second quarter-point cut to their policy rate this year. Since the December 10th follow-on rate cut, the yield on the 10-year has been marking time, but appears poised to resolve above a multi-month, classic patterned base formation of the inverted “Head & Shoulders” variety. A sustained bullish inflection above 4.20% would project an initial measured move to approximately 4.45%."

@DanielTNiles Meanwhile, silver is up 10x the S&P 500's gain YTD.

S&P celebrating NY w/ +1.8% gain in 6 trading days & shrugged off Venezuela. The broad mkt was even better. EW S&P +3.2% & R2K +5.7% driven by easy money as GSEs ordered to buy $200B MBS to lower mortgage rates. Expect more consumer targeted stimulus policies till mid-terms. This performance is even more impressive when considering the Magnificent 7 are down YTD and only the impressive gains by $GOOGL +5.0% and $AMZN +7.2% have kept that group up 0.5% on average YTD. Particularly notable is the 0.9% YTD decline in $NVDA despite the bullish comments by the company at CES including the CEO saying how "the demand for Nvidia GPUs is skyrocketing.” Trading now at a 25x PE for CY26 on estimates of 57% revenue growth vs the S&P at 22x/8%, this might be the most compelling AI name in the short-term once again. My AI index is down 9% and the Magnificent7 are down 2% since their peak on October 29th despite the Google complex of stocks being up 16% over that time. This is due to the OpenAI complex of stocks being down 25% since 10/29 as concerns over how they would fund $1.4 trillion in capital commitments over 8 years became a focal point. The likely future announcements of OpenAI closing $100B in financing at a ~$830B valuation and to a much lesser degree Anthropic closing $10B in financing at a ~$350B valuation may be the catalyst to get the bigger AI related names moving again given the funding concern. One negative factor to watch however is the rise in both HDD and semiconductor memory costs depressing margins and demand for the system vendors. Looking into this upcoming week, the President's call for a 10% interest rate cap on credit cards for a year is probably not going to be taken well going into the unofficial start of earnings season with the big banks. The $KBWB bank ETF was +29% in 2025 and is +4% already YTD. I still believe 2026 will be choppy. I expect 1) a strong first half driven by easy money policies before mid-terms with anticipation of a new Fed chair in May who will want at least 100 bps in more rate cuts and 2) strong fund raising for private AI companies and continued AI capex optimism by the public hyperscalers. I then believe things will get more choppy later in the year as 1) we approach the mid-term elections and the potential of a less business friendly government, and 2) one of the private AI vendors fails to get funding or a public hyperscaler starts to pull back on AI capex as the market continues to differentiate the winner and losers.

@MikeZaccardi I wonder what GS’s FTM EPS estimates were going into 2022 and 2020?

Goldman's 7600 year-end SPX target on $336 of estimated non-GAAP EPS

People often make the mistake of focusing on what should be done while neglecting the more important question of who should be given the responsibility for determining what should be done. That's backward. When you know what you need in a person to do the job well and you know what the person you're putting into it is like, you can pretty well visualize how things will go. #principleoftheday

@KobeissiLetter Says the head of the deregulation party.

BREAKING: President Trump says executives of US defense contractors will no longer be allowed to make more than $5 million unless they build "new and modern production plants." Trump also says he is banning dividends and stock buybacks for defense companies until these problems are "rectified."