Florian Chevallier

Everyone’s excited about Roche’s Phase 2 results for CT-388. 22.5% *placebo adjusted* (efficacy estimand) weight loss after 48 weeks for a GIP/GLP-1. 2 Qs: 1️⃣ - WHAT was that placebo? Is this a lucky instance where the placebo underperformed/gained? WHY no mention of the non-placebo values? 2️⃣- What percentage of women were enrolled? (Higher women = Higher loss numbers) Also note the categorical loss numbers, which I *think* are for the treatment-regimen estimand (though it’s unclear). “At week 48 for the 24 mg dose, 95.7% of CT-388 treated participants achieved a weight loss of ≥5%, 87% achieved ≥10%, 47.8% achieved ≥20%, and 26.1% achieved ≥30%.” Note that the number over 20% loss (not placebo adjusted) is not over 50%. Finally, I’ve included the SURMOUNT-1 tirzepatide weight loss for comparison. At 48 weeks, tirzepatide 15mg was right around 20% and also not plateaued. SURMOUNT-1 had a strong placebo group. I suspect CT-388 did not. $RHHBY

Funny seeing the comments about $IREN's $6B ATM 😄 I've literally seen this movie before. When $IREN was a ~$2B market cap company they announced a $1B ATM. Same exact reaction: dumb money panicked, stock took a hit, smart money loaded up. The stock went up almost 10x. Here's the thing people forget: equity dilution is how you build a company. I've worked at enough startups to know that when you're staring down a massive growth opportunity, the worst thing you can do is be capital-constrained. You raise aggressively and you execute. Look at what IREN actually announced this quarter: ✅$3.6B GPU financing secured for the Microsoft contract at <6% interest ✅On track for $3.7B in AI Cloud ARR by end of CY26 ✅4.5GW of secured grid-connected power ✅$2.8B cash on hand as of Jan 31 The opportunity in front of them is enormous. Capital is the accelerant. Now is exactly the time to be aggressive. Weak hands will sell the ATM announcement. Strong hands understand what they're actually looking at. $IREN 🚀