Aluy
208 posts

Aluy
@Aluylol
“Dream as if you live forever, live as if you die today.” - James Dean
TX Katılım Aralık 2018
48 Takip Edilen135 Takipçiler

been a minute since I've been on here, but would like to show off an app I created to y'all (my friends). At work, a lot of my project meetings pile up and the AI/copilot transcripts pile up too, so my solution was to gather and consolidate all of 'em:
meetingbull.com
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#Beryl will likely take on that classic hurricane shape with a definite eye soon. Once the eye closes, the intensification process will pick up.
GIF
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@Aluylol Beryl is currently closing its eyewall.
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Bookmarking this and coming back to it in a couple days. Because if you go to 12:30am on the GRAF model output here and also look at the current satellite for Beryl, it looks the same 😬
Steve Caparotta, Ph.D.@SteveWAFB
The GRAF model continues to show #Beryl rapidly organizing Sunday into Monday upon approach to Texas. It's also on the northern end of our current guidance envelope, so those near Houston should still watch closely. GRAF has often done well w/ tropical systems in recent years.
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@interface7 @JeremyDeHart53d This might be the most ill informed post I’ve seen in a VERY long time. Have a great day.
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@Pickled_Pyper @ZzyTuber Hurricanes typically fly by quickly. TS are known to stall, like Harvey.
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@StuOstro Is it me, or does Beryl look like she's trying to reform her eye? 👁️🌀
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@leo_write Not only will it never reach cat 2 or 3 status, but it is on track to be further away from Houston.
Stop the fearmongering you lil furry.
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Aluy retweetledi

While I do agree that #Beryl may rapidly intensify into landfall in Texas later tomorrow, we need to pump the brakes on the “this could be Harvey all over again” paradigm.
There are some truly gigantic differences between this and Harvey, in that during Harvey you started from basically nothing, whereas here w/ #Beryl you have a broad center and wind maxima that needs time to consolidate before really getting going again.
Also, not to mention #Beryl’s environment isn’t exactly pristine, with a lot of mid-level dry air lurking to the south and moderate-strong southerly wind shear helping to force this dry air into the core.
While there are a few exceptions, it’s **much, much** easier for a TC to intensify more quickly when you start with next to nothing like Harvey and just wrap up a tight initial inner core. Contrast that with #Beryl where you’re try to tighten up something that’s initially broad, with a lot more inertial stability to overcome.
Historically speaking, most tightly wound cat 4-5s in the Atlantic that unwind then try to reintensify later on usually do so at a much slower pace, even in a great environments. This is likely because the broad pressure field left by the older, relic inner core pumps the breaks truly rapid intensification when it comes to surface winds. In these kinds of storms, you tend to get a lot more deepening, pressure falls, & a larger wind field at the expense of the peak winds having a harder time keeping up. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens here w/ #Beryl
Ryan Maue@RyanWeather
This was Harvey 48 hours prior to landfall. 😬
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@WeenieWx @AntiMattersWX @DavidAlfWx @TRGTornado Yo dawg ima need you to go to the /r/tropicalweather subreddit and roast all of the fearmongering fucktards over there too. Its ridiculous
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