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Alwarez
2.4K posts
Alwarez
@AlwarezIvan
Polymarket player | @zscdao all content here is sponsored or commissioned
Katılım Ağustos 2022
251 Takip Edilen888 Takipçiler
Alwarez retweetledi
Alwarez retweetledi
96.6% of Openclaw Agents content on X is written by ghostwriters hired for $5-$10 per content unit
Terminal below seems complicated but shows basically nothing.
The result of few prompts into Claude Sonnet 4.6
Absolutely zero match between the real value and what Claude posters say.
If you know how the content production kitchen works you will never believe them again.
English
Something happened that I did not expect at all
New outcomes have been opened on the 'Backpack FDV' market - $100M, $200M and $300M
At this point you can actually start considering buying 'YES'
Even though Backpack's FDV turned out to be an overvalued when this market opened
I don't think they will launch with an FDV below $200M - an easy 10% profit in a week
If week 6 actually turns out to be the final one and we don't see another TGE delay
Alwarez@AlwarezIvan
Closed the Backpack FDV market in profit and I advise you to do the same A few days ago as I planned I decided to close the trades in profit and not wait for the market to end The TGE itself will take place in the next 2-3 weeks if there are no more delays I will not speculate on the topic that the token may launch exclusively only on the Backpack exchange and that this will allow to do various things with the token FDV However, keep this fact in mind and if you have open positions in this market, maybe right now is a great moment to lock in profit
English
Alwarez retweetledi
From $10 to $100! Grinding in the trenches
Right now I'm actively testing late goals on Polymarket
Main focus - the Premier League! This is straight-up an anomaly of the 2025/26 season:
＞25.7% of all goals in the last 15 minutes
＞12+% of all goals after the 90th minute (added time)
＞In 13+% of matches, a goal in added time decides the outcome
Other top leagues:
＞La Liga - 25.5% in the last 15 minutes
＞Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1 - standard 22-26%
The experiment continues!
Always DYOR!
English
Complete loss of faith in Backpack among traders?
I decided to check how the 'Backpack FDV' market is doing after the latest news
And I was quite surprised - the news about 20% of Backpack equity for stakers did not add bullish sentiment to traders on Polymarket
I also decided to check whether those 4 weeks of 'points redistribution' had ended
And how surprised I was when I saw the news about the start of week 6!
It seems @Backpack really does not want to launch TGE in such a market
Alwarez@AlwarezIvan
Closed the Backpack FDV market in profit and I advise you to do the same A few days ago as I planned I decided to close the trades in profit and not wait for the market to end The TGE itself will take place in the next 2-3 weeks if there are no more delays I will not speculate on the topic that the token may launch exclusively only on the Backpack exchange and that this will allow to do various things with the token FDV However, keep this fact in mind and if you have open positions in this market, maybe right now is a great moment to lock in profit
English
It seems Anon tried to confuse all of us with this bet
but for @Andrey_10gwei this is not a problem at all
Unfortunately even in such terrible markets there are insiders
I feel like after these posts he will create a new account...
Andrew 10 GWEI@Andrey_10gwei
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 A suspected military insider won $60K correctly predicting 46! separate military events! Guy went 46/46 on US strikes Iran bets from Jan 14–Feb 23 Nothing impossible with classified military intel access…
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Alwarez retweetledi
Today we're announcing Paid Partnership labels on posts. X's core value is providing on authentic pulse on humanity.
While we want to encourage people to build their businesses on X, undisclosed promotions hurt the integrity of the product and lead people to distrust the content they read on X.
This new feature will allow you to comply with regulations, but more importantly: it enables you to be transparent with your followers.
English
DREAMLEAGUE FINAL LIVE NOW ON Polymarket
Aurora vs Tundra Esports in the DreamLeague Season 28 Grand Final
Tundra took the first two maps but Aurora looks like they might be starting a comeback
Current odds:
Aurora → 15%
Tundra → 86%
I’m taking Aurora here
Market is giving them almost no chance but I see real comeback potential
High risk high reward DYOR
English
Just yesterday you were up $2M, and today you lose $7M in a single day
This trader genuinely did not believe that an attack on Iran would happen
But unfortunately it did
All of this trader's profit evaporated and turned into major losses
Personally I also believed until the very end that everything would end only with negotiations
However, lately the world has truly gone crazy
And apparently we will be seeing things like this much more often going forward
English
$5K PnL - I’ve crossed the milestone
This is a big moment for me as a Polymarket trader. The next goal is $10K, and I hope to reach it in the next few months.
Thanks to all the @PolymarketTrade community I read every day. It helps me improve my skills, learn from others’ experience, and avoid making stupid mistakes
English
US-Israel operation vs Iran: did the weekend save BTC from $60k?
"fuego66" position on Polymarket ("BTC dip to $60k") with the potential to turn $7k into $194k is looking pretty shaky right now
BTC still needs to drop almost $4k in the remaining time!
Market reaction:
＞BTC: -3.8% to low $63,038, now trading $63,800 - 64,100
Analysts warning of a second wave of selling and higher volatility on Monday open
＞Brent Crude: +3.0 - 3.4% to $72.9 - 73.2/bbl
＞WTI Crude: +2.8 - 3.2% to $67.0 - 67.3/bbl
Main catalyst (Natixis, Barclays, Bloomberg) - risk of Strait of Hormuz disruption. On escalation, analysts see Brent at $80+ and WTI $75 - 77 on Monday open
＞Gold: +1.9 - 2.1% to $5,278 - 5,290/oz
Classic safe-haven play
Knight@KnightShift
Looks like the news about US strikes on Iran leaked after all Not every big "YES" holder on Polymarket is an insider - some just got lucky, others read the signals faster This one trader really caught my eye He's been loading up on the "BTC dip to $60k in February" He stands to turn $7k into $194k if BTC dips to $60k in the next 21 hours With full-scale military escalation unfolding right now… this is actually happening for real Track whales with @kreoapp bot: t.me/KreoPolyBot?st… Always DYOR!
English
Someone just made a perfectly timed trade on Polymarket
Today a highly successful trader surfaced on Polymarket
The account went all-in on the market predicting :
“The US will strike Iran before March 1”
The crazy part?
The bet was placed right before the deadline, when odds were extremely high - and it ended up hitting perfectly
Because the market closed literally a day before the attack, the payout turned into a massive profit
Which raises the obvious question:
• Insane luck?
• Or someone trading with insider information?
Personally, I’d bet this trader probably knows Trump pretty well
English
English
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
A week ago, I wrote about a trader who had bet a large sum that Khamenei would not leave the post of Supreme Leader of Iran.
At that time, his account was in profit at $3,102,041 for all time.
Today, he has already lost $1,230,130 of his fortune due to the US attack on Iran.
Yes, at the moment the deal with Khamenei has not been closed yet, but I don't think that makes it any easier for him.
It is also known that the Khamenei residence was destroyed, and the supreme ruler of Iran himself was transferred to a safe place.
I think the main reason for starting this operation is not to wage war, but to overthrow a government that Trump does not like.
A scenario like Maduro cannot be repeated, so the United States is acting according to a different plan.
By the way, there are also traders who entered into a deal in this market on time.
Polymarket trader "Curseaaaaaaaa", earned more than $500,000 on this event.
I think this is just the beginning.
What do you think about this market?
MopOzeu | Eternity@mopozeuX
Polymarket trader has bet $739,274 that Khamenei will not leave his post as Supreme Leader of Iran His profile: @SwissMiss?via=mop-ozeu" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@SwissMiss?via…
This trader has been trading on Polymarket since January 2024 and during this time he has earned $3 102,041. He doesn't often make such large bets, only if he is 100% sure of the deal. In 2025, he had already earned $219,827 on the fact that he was sure that peace between Russia and Ukraine would not be signed. Now he's betting on another market with a similar theme, and I think he's right. If he wins, his account will be replenished with $200,000+ and another successful transaction in his profile. English
Was Khamenei killed?
Right now news is starting to appear from Israel that the Supreme Leader of Iran was killed as a result of their attack
Traders on Polymarket are not 100% sure about this
Right now they estimate the probability at ~40%
Personally I think this did not happen, and you can make good money on this market by buying 'NO'
English
When media goes crazy, Polymarket keeps pushing the limits
4 hours accuracy hits new ATH - 97%. Incredible
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