La Saumure

'Misnaming things only adds to the misery of the world,' this sentence was written by Albert Camus. This is what I had in mind when I was reading the commentary about the repo market this week. 'Bankruptcy,' 'Failure,' 'Crisis... None is accurate. Let's have a repo review : 1/N

Rising cross asset volatility Flattening of the curve Long dollar Xccy widening Asw widening Oil front end calendar spread in backwardation 3-4 hikes priced in Europe 0,5 in US Inverse it when trump will be done and you ll be rich (Inch'Allah)

Mon instinct me fait penser que on devrait faire un truc un peu hybride entre les 2, et surtout ne pas immiter le systeme americain qui est degeulasse pour l'economie et force des injections de liquidité constante capté par l'etat et les banques.

J'adore comment toutes les takes que je vois sur la capitalisation sont des liberaux qui pronent ca par ideologie. L'ironie : le premier effet c'est... forcer l'etat a faire du deficit et emettre de la dette au meme rythme qur l'epargne pour pas faire exploser les pensions funds.

😭

Liquidity crunch🤐 SOFR volume has declined sharply to $500 billion from its peak - the lowest level since last October. Meanwhile, TGCR volume has fallen by less than $100 billion from its peak. The implication: The majority of the decline stems from bilateral transactions, where borrowers are typically hedge funds. And this is just the beginning🔥💥 an increasing number of assets are becoming NON-ELIGIBLE for transactions under current conditions #sofr #liquidity #repo

Tiens marrant, une grosse partie des banques centrales qui achètent le plus d'or sont les banques centrales des plus gros producteurs (Russie, Chine, Ouzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Mexique) (dans le Top10 à chaque fois)

Devenir un homme: - Réaliser que vous ne deviendrez pas pro dans votre sport préféré - Ton meilleur ami s'éloigne - Essayer de changer une fêtarde - Voir ta mère pleurer - Voir ton père commencer à ralentir - Un groupe d'amis d'enfance s'effondre - Quand les jeux vidéo ne sont plus amusants

Quand je vois ca, je me sens un peu nostalgique de cette FR que je n'ai connu que trop jeune Maintenant, c'est fake news, des invectives et de la telerealité, je trouve que le debat politique est vide et n'apporte plus de vision du monde J'espere que on reinventera ca un jour

🚨BREAKING: FIRST PHOTOS OF TRUMP’S CALL WITH IRAN

Une autre fois je raconterai des trucs un peu amusants sur Mélenchon et Dray. En responsabilité, bien sur.

Je me souviens de Jospin ministre de l'Education en 1992 en pleine contestation étudiante. Il nous avait accordé une audience dans le Sud. Il soupçonnait la présence de "gauchistes" (dont moi). Mais le dialogue s'instaura et l'homme d'Etat, empathique, discuta seul avec 5 jeunes.

🇨🇳 Professor Jiang — the man nicknamed “The Professor” because he is truly one of the most dangerous geopolitical minds in the world — revealed to Tucker Carlson words you will not hear anywhere else: Iran’s war is an American quagmire with no bottom… China is the biggest long-term loser… and the UAE will be affected in a way no one expected. This man is not an ordinary analyst. He predicted Trump’s victory years ago — and he won. He predicted America entering a war with Iran — and it did. And today, he speaks about the future with the same confidence. 1. Iran War = Second Ukraine The war will be long and exhausting. No side will admit defeat. America is stuck between two bad options: withdrawal = collapse of prestige… continuation = endless bleeding. My view: this is exactly what happened in Ukraine. Americans have no exit strategy, only an entry strategy. 2. Why can’t America exit? Iran will demand $1 trillion in compensation + complete US withdrawal from the region. If America withdraws: Gulf states will become clients of Iran. Petrodollar will collapse. America — with $39 trillion in debt — will face a real economic collapse. The point no one talks about: America is not fighting for Iran… it is fighting so it does not collapse itself. 3. Iran’s smart plan — $800 billion per year Iran plans to impose a 10% passage fee on every ship crossing the Strait of Hormuz. Expected revenue: $800 billion per year. This amount will rebuild Iran stronger than before. If this is correct — and I see it as not far-fetched — Iran will emerge from the war richer than it entered. 4. The biggest loser is not America — but China China imports 40% of its energy from the Gulf. Its economy is entirely built on cheap energy. Even artificial intelligence — which everyone talks about — requires cheap energy. Any disruption in energy supplies will hit China more than any other country. And what no one notices: the war in Iran is not just an American war — it is a war on China’s future as a great power. 5. The real beneficiaries? Israel and Russia Israel: Wants “Greater Israel” from the Nile to the Euphrates. Draining America in a long war = pushing it out of the region. Weakening the Gulf = removing any competitor. Russia: America lifted sanctions on Russian oil (130 million barrels). Russia sells its oil at record prices. And finances its war in Ukraine from America’s pocket. In short: America is paying for others’ wars while thinking it is winning. 6. The religious factor — the hidden power no one talks about There are religious factions in Israel and America that genuinely believe this war is a prelude to the return of Christ. Blowing up Al-Aqsa Mosque and building the Third Temple is part of the plan. Netanyahu and Trump — according to Professor Jiang — are just tools in a project far older than them. This is one of the most dangerous statements in the episode, because when political decisions are driven by end-of-the-world ideology — there is no room for rationality. 7. The ground invasion is coming — a new Vietnam America is considering sending 2,000 Marines to control Kharg Island (90% of Iranian oil exports). But Professor Jiang said clearly: “You can take it, but you cannot hold it.” What begins with 2,000 soldiers could end with half a million — just like in Vietnam. 8. Weakening the UAE — the bubble is about to burst Dubai was built on the illusion of security. Simple Iranian strikes revealed the model’s fragility entirely. What was a “safe haven” became a target. And the confidence upon which all those towers were built is eroding. The UAE will not “end” — but its economic model will be severely shaken, because everything is based on the assumption of regional security — and that assumption has collapsed. 9. Japan will recover — and China will decline Professor Jiang literally said: “If I had a billion dollars — I would put it all in Japan.” Japan has historically risen from anything: the Mongols, World War II, nuclear bombs. China, however: agricultural, closed, and unable to adapt to the new era. 10. The West is collapsing from within Europe, Canada, and Australia are experiencing deliberate demographic change. The “democracy” that emerges looks more like the “organized demolition” of Western civilization. And the question: who is driving this? No one has a clear answer. Conclusion What Professor Jiang said tonight: America is stuck in a quagmire it cannot escape. Iran will return stronger after the war. Israel achieves its expansionist dream. China will be the biggest loser. And the West destroys itself. The remaining question: If Professor Jiang predicted Trump’s victory and the start of the war — and he was correct… Will his predictions today come true?

@dMacro_dBS Who tf i crazy enough to believe it lol

I’m reading this weekend trade ideas from the supposedly “best sellside traders” on the Street: they’re recommending buying frontend rates, paired with short vol on the upper left 🤢🤮🤒🤣… Not sure whether to puke, cry, or laugh! I guess they have been paper trading

Putine fear has winned against independence. until when europe will be forced to follow the us / israel and their stupid wars

@AlainPitous @HenrikZeberg C’est exactement ce que je me disais quand on nous a parlé des CFO lol

Comme le suggère @HenrikZeberg : les banques en question ont aidé les fonds de Pivate Credit , qui ont vendu leur fonds à toutes sortes de clients ...et maintenant ces banques aident d'autres clients à shorter les sociétés plus exposées (qu'elles connaît bien du coup) Au niveau ESG, on est moyen moyen

@LTC65623989 x.com/i/status/20353…

@LTC65623989 do you feel that people are happy and have a good purchasing power rn ? Aggregate demand is shitty, only tree three that is hidding the forest is AI

When reflationary supply meet recessionary demand into a deleveraging cycle, i think that 2 hikes is exaggerated. If commos backwardation resist after the war resolution, then i will believe it. But for now, its a liquidity issue / hedging demand more than inflation repricing imo

@AaronBastani @Kathleen_Tyson_ haut les barricades camarade

Be France: Among best high speed rail in the world 4th largest wheat producer God tier wine and cheese Civilian nuclear superpower Serving duck pate on your aircraft carriers Have generals on telly telling Donald Trump to ‘fuck himself’.

@ouf65 @uptownsaul j ai cette phrase quasi tout les jours en tete

@uptownsaul ''There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.''

2027 might be aggressive but the fact is that SWIFT facilitates the correspondent banking system for settlement, which is precisely what is actively being disrupted by blockchain. no need for correspondent banking = no need for SWIFT