Anatoly Lubarsky

@AmitSegal >>are now cut off from Iranian weapons supply and support<< Direct quote from Centcom (not the Army) "Iran can no longer reliably arm or resupply Lebanese Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas, or militia groups in Iraq with advanced weapons." I would not call it "cut off".

The U.S. Army stated in an official announcement: Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis are now cut off from Iranian weapons supply and support. This outcome follows “months of careful planning.”

@AdamMossoff >>society went from mildly socially antisemitic to<< This framing is historically wrong. Antisemitism was already significant, organized, and widespread. Example: the 1916 Judenzählung - a special count of Jewish soldiers. Antisemitism had deep roots long before the Nazis.

If you ever wondered how German society went from mildly socially antisemitic to Kristalnacht to industrialized genocide in 12 years (1930-1942), you're witnessing it now. Mass propaganda and libels based in ideology of collectivism and nihilism is a key part of how it works.

@LauraLoomer >>There's not one Jewish player in the NBA. There's not one.<< NBA: Deni Avdija, Ben Saraf, Danny Wolf, Domantas Sabonis

 Jewish hockey star and ATHLETE Jack Hughes won a gold medal for Team USA at the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan, Italy, scoring the game-winning overtime goal against Canada on February 22, 2026. Your daily reminder that Jew haters are the dumbest people on planet Earth.

@charlesmurray >>When a scientist or an engineer earns a Ph.D., it is usually based on reproducible, verifiable outcomes<< It's not only that. You always need a control group to compare the outcomes.

With a few minor caveats, I agree.

@SwissAmbIL @AmitSegal >>Characterizing Switzerland's neutrality during WW II as<< This is not true? 1. The Swiss government ... asked Germany to mark the passports of German and Austrian Jews with a special sign 2. ... the Swiss banking community worked closely with many Nazis

With all due respect (I follow your work w/ interest), @AmitSegal, this is misguided. Referring to Swiss neutrality in the context of an EU decision is strange. Characterizing Switzerland's neutrality during WW II as "a special kind of evil" among evils? Happy to discuss Swiss history, neutrality & our bilateral relations anytime over a traditional Swiss raclette, if you wish.

There was much evil in World War II, but in some ways, Switzerland's neutrality between Nazi Germany and the Allies was a special kind of evil. The European Union's announcement today, in which it imposes sanctions on Hamas officials on one hand and Israeli settlers on the other, is yet another display of neutrality that is pure evil and a moral failure.

@nathancofnas >>they produced figures like<< There are too many assumptions here. A list of brilliant individuals does not prove anything about the population average. The "evidence" for a supposed IQ gap is very weak, and it is even less proven to be genetic.

I think high average Jewish IQ may predate the Sephardi/Ashkenazi split. Sephardim had Ashkenazi-level achievement in Spain. Italian Jews (who belong to a third group) dominated journalism and were wildly overrepresented in academia, the upper echelons of the military, and other high-status professions. When Sephardim came to Britain in the 18th century they produced figures like David Ricardo and Benjamin Disraeli. Maimonides and Moses de León (author of the Zohar) were Sephardim. Moshe Chaim Luzzatto (arguably the most important religious philosopher besides Maimonides) was Italian. Spinoza—the most important pre-20th century secular Jewish philosopher—was Sephardi. There were historically unique opportunities to manifest genius in early 20th-century America and Western Europe. By that time, the Sephardic population had been decimated through intermarriage (they started mass intermarrying 100 years before Ashkenazim) and the bulk of the population was concentrated in the Ottoman Empire. Would Einstein have come up with the theory of special relativity if he had been running around Istanbul wearing a fez? Hard to say. Hopefully will be resolved with ancient DNA.

@charlesmurray >>Which makes the current stats ... puzzling<< There are too many assumptions here. They first need to prove there is a real Ashkenazi/Sephardi IQ gap -and then prove it is genetic. Right now, the evidence looks like cherry-picked data from very small or messy samples.

I agree. Which makes the current stats on Sephardi/Ashkenazi IQ puzzling. What caused a selective drop, if indeed that's what we're looking at? Just intermarriage? But presumably genomics will untangle it eventually.

@demishassabis @GeminiApp @GoogleAIStudio >>made with the new Lyria 3 Pro<< For this generated piece, the musical source/template is "Children" by Robert Miles. I found the match in less than a minute. If you strip "Children" down to the core tune, the match is obvious. Same melody, same sound, same tempo.

Perfect background music for flow state at 2am - made with the new Lyria 3 Pro. Google AI subscribers can try it in the @GeminiApp and developers can build with the API in @GoogleAIStudio - have fun!!

@ViekangGolden @AmitSegal >>Are you a Russian double agent ?<< Russian? Are you dumb? Merz expressed pride in his grandfather, who had been a Nazi. Which makes him a neo-Nazi. Not to mention trolling Jews on April 13.

@anatoly @AmitSegal Are you a Russian double agent ?

Israel will transfer jet fuel to Germany at Berlin’s request, following the crisis in Hormuz. The Ministry of Energy confirmed that there are “production surpluses available for export,” and Foreign Minister Saar informed the German Minister of Economy of the decision. In addition, the possibility of assistance regarding natural gas will be examined.

@Hertsnik @AmitSegal >>stupid thing to say about Friedrich Merz<< 1. He expressed pride in his grandfather, who had been a Nazi. Multiple times. 2. Next time you don't watch your language - I'll block you.

@anatoly @AmitSegal What a fucking stupid thing to say about Friedrich Merz

@AmitSegal >>The first is Tamir Hayman<< Really? This is the same ex-intel chief who always argued that Hamas was deterred and did not want war. He and the one who replaced him failed on 7/10. He is the last guy we need to listen.

There is a lingering question that has haunted the Israeli defense establishment since the Iranian ceasefire: If the campaign stops here, was it a success? Two highly informed Israeli experts—both of whom I deeply respect—have come to opposite conclusions. The first is Tamir Hayman, former head of IDF Military Intelligence, who spoke with my colleague Yonit Levi on Channel 12. The second is Yuval Steinitz, a veteran cabinet minister and current chairman of Rafael, whom I interviewed on Meet the Press. And so, in the great Jewish tradition, let us argue: We can start with their overall assessments. Hayman, ever the measured intelligence chief, concluded that the overall balance of the campaign “leans toward the negative.” Steinitz diverged slightly, calling it “a massive victory” reminiscent of the Six-Day War. This gap in perception hinges almost entirely on their assessment of Israel’s greatest existential threat: the nuclear program. Steinitz argues that by eliminating top scientists—an achievement he enthusiastically notes happened in the “first 7 seconds” of the campaign—and destroying weaponization equipment, Israel bought itself significant time. He claims that while Iran may have previously been months away from a bomb, “this time in my opinion it is several years,” because the physical mechanisms required to build a warhead were removed from the equation. Hayman, however, refuses to grade on a curve. To the former intel chief, blowing up weaponization labs and eliminating scientists doesn’t matter if the raw materials are still sitting safely underground. He completely rejects Steinitz’s premise, warning that the fundamental components of a nuclear breakout—the subterranean facilities, the advanced centrifuges and the stockpiles of enriched uranium—were left intact inside the country. He bluntly states that “we hardly touched the nuclear issue,” warning that Iran’s breakout time remains dangerously short, leaving Israel in a situation “similar to the one in which we started the fighting.” While Hayman acknowledges his assessment might shift if a negotiated agreement ultimately collars the Iranian program, short of that, his conclusion is stark: “If the nuclear threat is not addressed, then the question arises—what did we do in this whole event?” This profound divide extends to their views on the stability of the Iranian regime. Steinitz sees a government on its knees. He argues that the strikes so thoroughly decimated Iranian supply chains and infrastructure that the country has “turned from a tiger into a cat.” In his view, Iran is “highly weakened” and teetering “on the verge of collapse”—suggesting the ayatollahs would have fallen completely had the U.S. not prematurely halted the war. Hayman views the exact same scenario and sees a disaster. To him, the regime’s sheer survival against a coordinated U.S.-Israeli coalition is a terrifying victory for Tehran. He argues that “in the eyes of the regime itself, it is stronger because it experienced the most severe thing—and survived it.” Worse, he warns that Israel will inevitably have to strike again in the future, and when that day comes in a post-Trump era, there is a very high chance Israel will be left to face an emboldened regime alone. Their diverging assessments also depend heavily on how they view the threat of ballistic missiles. For Steinitz, the strikes represent one of the war’s seminal achievements: “Their production capacity in the factories stood at 3,000 to 4,000 missiles a year, and now there are no factories; they were totally destroyed. They didn’t hit the mixer—they flattened the factories.” By his math, destroying those production lines bought Israel half a decade of safety, calculating that “in another 4 years without this operation, there would have been, let’s say, 16,800 ballistic missiles aimed at Israel—and now there are only 800.” Hayman completely subordinates the missile threat to the nuclear one. He readily concedes that Israel inflicted massive conventional damage, noting “an erosion of the military capabilities of the Revolutionary Guards, both in the Air Force and the Navy.” Yet he remains deeply pessimistic because, in his eyes, Israel failed to neutralize the “crown jewel” of the Iranian threat. There is nothing more Israeli than looking at the exact same rubble and arriving at two completely different conclusions. Ultimately, it comes down to their professional DNA. Steinitz is the industrialist; if he were Iranian, he’d be tearing his hair out over the flattened factories and shattered supply chains. Hayman is the intelligence man; if he were Iranian, he’d be looking at the untouched nuclear program and quietly smiling. We can end this argument with the Talmudic dictum, “These and these are the words of the living God”—which is an ancient Jewish way of saying they are both right. The nuclear program needs to be addressed, but crippling the ballistic missile pipeline is still a considerable victory. When it comes to regime stability, however, their opinions are much harder to reconcile; only the ayatollahs’ actual survival or collapse will vindicate either side. Hayman’s nuclear fixation reflects the prevailing mood within both the security establishment and the broader Israeli public. Even if the nuclear threat has been delayed, as Steinitz insists, it remains the ultimate trophy the country has its eyes on. Whether Netanyahu can bring that prize home will likely be the critical question that makes or breaks him in this year’s elections.

@AmitSegal >>posted on the Holocaust Remembrance Day (Yom HaShoah).<< That was just 3 weeks ago.

@AmitSegal >>Israel will transfer jet fuel to Germany at Berlin’s request, following the crisis<< Hmmm. Let's see what the German neo-nazi posted on the Holocaust Remembrance Day (Yom HaShoah).

@GasBuddyGuy >>has *never been higher* on the second day in May<< Cherry-picked date claim. There is nothing economically special about May 2. It is not the start of summer driving season, not the yearly peak, not a tax date, not a standard energy benchmark.

New record: the national average price of gasoline has *never been higher* on the second day in May than it is today: 5/2/26: $4.45 5/2/25: $3.16 5/2/24: $3.68 5/2/23: $3.57 5/2/22: $4.19 5/2/21: $2.89

@filbers נתוני הבוחרים של ליברמן: כנסת 22: 310,154 קולות (8 מושבים) כנסת 23: 263,365 קולות (7 מושבים) כנסת 24: 248,370 קולות (7 מושבים) כנסת 25: 213,687 קולות (6 מושבים) המגמה ברורה.

עוד שישי של סקרים שבהם כדי לייצר לגוש האופוזיציה רוב יהודי (61/60). מציגים: 1. את המפלגות החרדיות על 15 מנדטים בלבד במקום 18 שיש להם היום ו 19 או 20 שיקבלו בגלל הגידול הדמוגרפי. 2. מורידים לימין 3 מנדטים של סמוטריץ' (לשיטתם) למרות שגם סמוטריץ עם ה'מצביעים ראשונה' (יותר ממנדט רק של בני 18-22 הלומדים בישיבות, במכינות, במדרשות ומשרתים בצבא) שלא נדגמים כמעט בפאנלים. וזהו הסקר שהוצג אמש בערוץ 14.

@yehodavald מה עם זה?

הוא בטוח שהציבור מטומטם עם זיכרון קצר. אז בואו שניה נסיים אחת ולתמיד את השקר הזה של נפתלי בנט שהוא היה ראש ממשלה טוב וקידם ערכי ימין וכל החארטה הזה. קבלו רשימה חלקית של הישגי ממשלת בנט-לפיד: •הצבעה בעד חיבור עשרות אלפי בתים ערבים בלתי חוקיים לחשמל בנגב ובגליל. • עצירת נטיעות של קק"ל באדמות הנגב לבקשת מנסור עבאס. • הצבעה נגד פירוק המנהל האזרחי ובעד הנצחת האפליה של המתיישבים, ונגד הפסקת פעילות אונר"א בישראל. • מניעת תקציבים מאוניברסיטת אריאל. • הצבעה נגד הסדרת ההתיישבות הצעירה. • הריסת התיישבות יהודית ביהודה ושומרון. • הוצאת תושבי יו"ש מחוק עידוד השקעות הון. • שר הביטחון בני גנץ אישר זכות שיבה זוחלת לארבעת אלפים משפחות ערביות ביהודה ושומרון. • קידום זכות השיבה למגורשי איקרית וברעם. • הצבעה נגד החוק להחלת הריבונות ביהודה ושומרון. • קידום הסדרת של עשרות אלפי יח"ד בנגב לבדואים, עפ"י המתווה המקובל על רע"מ • הקפאה כמעט מוחלטת של הריסת בניה בלתי חוקית בנגב • אישור של 1000 יח"ד לפלסטינים ביו"ש, בהתאם לתכניות הרש"פ, והודעה רשמית של שר הביטחון שימשיך לאשר תכניות כאלה עפ"י תכנית פיאד להקמת מדינה פלסטינית • הקפאה - קיצוץ חד באישורי הבניה להתיישבות היהודית. • אי-מימוש ההתחייבות בהסכמים הקואליציוניים לניהול מערכה נגד תכנית ההשתלטות הפלסטינית על שטחי סי. • מינוי 4 שופטים לבתי המשפט העליון בלי אף שופט שמרן. • חסימת כל רפורמה במערכת המשפט. • מינוי יועמש לממשלה וגניזת חזון הפרדת היועמ" • הצבעה נגד חוק שייתן לבתי הדין הרבניים סמכויות שיפוט בדיני ממונות בהסכמת הצדדים. • שרת התחבורה מקדמת תחבורה ציבורית בשבת. • שר הבריאות הורוביץ אישר פונדקאות ללהט"ב. • נפתח אגף לרפורמים במשרד התפוצות עם תקציב של עשרות מילוני שקלים. • הממשלה התנגדה לדיון בכנסת בט' באב בנושא "קשר בל ינותק של עם ישראל לירושלים ולבית המקדש" בעקבות התנגדות הערבים • השרה זנדברג קידמה מינוי אנשי שמאל קיצוני לחברי דירקטור ברשות הטבע והגנים. • הצבעה נגד תקציב למיגון עוטף עזה • העברת חוק ייצוג הולם לערבים בחברות הממשלתיות כדי לסייע לשותפים בתנועה האסלמית להשתלט מבפנים גם על החברות הממשלתיות. • בתמורה לרשת הביטחון מהרשימה המשותפת, העבירו חוק שמאפשר לסטודנטים ערבים ללמוד באוניברסיטאות של חמאס אסלאמיות בג'נין ובמצרים ולהמשיך לקבל הטבות מהביטוח הלאומי. • הצבעה נגד הקמת וועדת חקירה פרלמנטרית בפרשת הסרסור בסוהרות בבתי הכלא הביטחוניים. • הצבעה נגד חוק גירוש משפחות מחבלים • הכפלת כמות המים לירדן ללא תמורה. • העברת מיליארדי שקלים שהובטחו לתנועה האיסלאמית • הצבעה נגד חוק לשלילת אזרחות ממחבלים. • העברת חצי מיליארד ש"ח לרשות הפלשתינית לתשלום למשפחות המחבלים. • הצבעה נגד חוק שיחזק את הריבונות הישראלית בירושלים ויפסיק את פעילות הרש"פ בה. • העברת תקציבים לערים המעורבות -300 מיליון לתושבים הערבים ו-4 מיליון לתושבים היהודים • שר הבטחון בני גנץ נפגש עם ראש הרשות הפלשתינית מחמוד עבאס ודן עמו בהתנעת תהליך השלום מחדש וקידום הקלות לפלשתינים. • גם חברי קואליציה ממרצ עלו לרגל לרמאללה והתחבקו עם אבו-מאזן בניסיון להתניע מחדש את התהליך המדיני. • הצבעה נגד שלילת סעיף 46, מה שיעניק זיכוי מס לארגוני שמאל שונאי ישראל כמו אמנסטי • הצבעה נגד חוק שיחייב הצבת דגל ישראל במוסדות ממלכתיים. הצבעה נגד חוק שיאסור החזרת גופות מחבלים. • כניעה לדרישות חמאס והכנסת חומרי גלם לרצועה בהיקפים שלא היו שנים. • הצבעה נגד דמי אבטלה לעצמאיים. • בניגוד להבטחות - תקציב החינוך הדתי לא נכנס לבסיס התקציב • קיצוץ בתקציבי ההתיישבות ביהודה ושומרון. • אישור מימון טיפולים לשינוי קול לטרנסג׳נדרים במקום תרופות לחולי סרטן. • הצבעה נגד הצעת החוק לקיצור בירוקרטיה לנכי צה"ל והלומי קרב. • השיסוי והפילוג בעם גבר בגלל החלטות הממשלה והרחובות בערו.

@AmitSegal >>Knesset 23: 263,365 votes (7 seats)<< Knesset 22: 310,154 votes (8 seats) the trend is obvious.

@AmitSegal >>If the polls are correct, ... and Lieberman, at worst, eight or nine.<< How is this possible? Lieberman's voters demographics is very specific: Knesset 23: 263,365 votes (7 seats) Knesset 24: 248,370 votes (7 seats) Knesset 25: 213,687 votes (6 seats) 7 seats is his max.

This week, the prediction market site Polymarket raised Bennett’s chances of becoming prime minister to 40 percent, roughly tying him with Netanyahu. If I had a million dollars to risk, I would probably diversify and invest equally between the two. But if I had a thousand dollars to go wild with on an “all or nothing” bet, I’d invest it in the person currently given a mere 1 percent chance: Yisrael Beitenu Chairman Avigdor Lieberman. A week ago, Lieberman announced he would be the next prime minister. The declaration was met with a shrug at best, ignored at worst and ridiculed in the most likely scenario. A rookie mistake. First, the math: the “Together” list is not a single party, but two factions joined together. If the polls are correct, Naftali Bennett will have 14-15 MKs at best, and Lieberman, at worst, eight or nine. Bennett had fewer seats than Lieberman when he demanded the premiership of their short-lived government from Lapid (who had 17 at the time) in 2021. Unlike the Netanyahu bloc, there is no real hierarchy in the opposition. On what grounds will Lapid, Eisenkot, Bennett and Golan demand that Lieberman settle for finance minister again—and that’s the best-case scenario? What will they tell him if, the day after the elections, he demands the premiership for himself, or else he’ll consider other options? Will Bennett tell him it’s unacceptable and immoral to lead a country with a single-digit number of seats? Of course, there is a difference between Lieberman in 2026 and Bennett in 2021. The Yisrael Beitenu chairman isn’t currently the tie-breaker between the blocs. His rhetoric against Netanyahu and the ultra-Orthodox is harsher than any of his partners, and the competition is tough. Ostensibly, he has no choice but to bite his lip and play second or third fiddle in someone else’s concert. That is true, but Lieberman has a dilemma. While Bennett once had to choose between a right-wing government or a change government, Lieberman seemingly lacks even a single viable option. Some of his closest confidants are convinced he will never again join a coalition relying on the Ra’am party, having been badly burned last time. In other words, he has zero incentive to once again be the silver platter serving up a government supported by Mansour Abbas. The only way to tempt him—if neither the Zionist opposition nor the Netanyahu bloc secures 61 seats—is the grand prize of the prime minister’s office. Are the chances of this high? Not particularly. Are they higher than 1 percent? Absolutely. To me, it sounds like an interesting opportunity for a calculated bet.

@DutchRenitent @AmitSegal Now you can report MossadSpokesman (fake) for impersonating @mossad_fa (official). Click report, choose impersonation.

@DutchRenitent @AmitSegal >>I don't think so. Where is the screenshot from?<< I checked. It's true - here is the official Mossad twitter. It is not the account in the OP. x.com/mossad_fa

The Mossad claims: “Mojtaba Khamenei burned his father’s will.”

@Garrett_Archer >>I'm just going off the chart.<< The chart probably shows monthly averages.

@anatoly Interesting though I'm just going off the chart.

Brent Crude is now trading above its 2022 high.