Andreas Persbo

Tomorrow morning (29 August), #UNSC members will hold closed consultations on Iran to discuss the invocation of the “snapback” mechanism. ◻️ Requested by: @franceonu and @UKUN_NewYork ◻️No briefer is expected → Read more: bit.ly/3HM7s0I

Haven’t posted in a year or so, so why not start up by reposting my reflections on the bombing of Hiroshima, written for @theELN back in the days. europeanleadershipnetwork.org/?p=12918

@james_acton32 Correct - time to dig into the paperwork, my friend.

Not many meetings today. Not much else going on. This should be a good day to make some real substantive progress with minimal distractions. Right?

We're releasing findings from the largest-ever nuclear risk forecasting survey of 151 experts & superforecasters w/@Research_FRI . A median expert saw a 5% chance of catastrophe by 2045 but identified policies that could halve this risk. Full report: opennuclear.org/open-nuclear-n…

Today we're releasing findings from the largest-ever forecasting survey of nuclear risk experts & superforecasters (151 total), conducted with @OpenNuclear. The median expert saw a 5% chance of catastrophe by 2045 - but identified policies that could cut this risk in half. 🧵

@VeronikaBedenko Truth sometimes hurt.

@james_acton32 Of course. It’s a totally irrelevant argument.

Does anyone see a problem with the following argument? X was done to prevent Y. Y didn’t happen. Therefore X was unnecessary.

After eleven years, it's time to update my London Underground concentric-circles-and-spokes map. Completely redrawn from centre to edges, it's so much better than before, and more geographically accurate than the official map.

TODAY: FRI-ONN NPT side event “A Gamble of Our Own Choosing: Forecasting Nuclear Risks” 🗓️25.07, 15:30-17:00 + RECEPTION 📌Room XXIII, UN Can't join us in person? Tune in to the audio livestream: listen-live.unog.ch/en/meetings/25… Have questions for speakers? Comment below or DM us!

@AidanLiddle Really great working with you Aidan. I hope your next posting will allow us to continue to keep in touch!

My last day as the UK’s Ambassador to the #ConferenceOnDisarmament. It’s been a tough six years for the multilateral system in general and disarmament in particular. But I’m proud of what we were able to achieve despite the circumstances. 1/5

@russianforces @PSinovets Ha, we share that skepticism. Healthy.

@Andreas_Persbo @PSinovets Yes, I guess the UK can take out the Norther Fleet, but if it is truly stands alone in Europe against a nuclear Russia, I'm not sure it would make much difference. You may have noticed that I'm quite skeptical about the value of nuclear weapons in general :-)

I'm trying to think of scenarios when this policy would make sense and I'm not sure I can think of one.

@russianforces @PSinovets As an aside, I don’t necessarily agree with your assumption that it’s all ‘countervalue’. Nuclear weapons can be used against military targets. Northern fleet installations come to mind.

@russianforces @PSinovets I’m thinking more in terms of what could satisfy doctrine, and so enable the option to use weapons. Extreme circumstances, granted, is often assumed to be a nuclear strike on Britain. But if the situation is such that the UK would once again stand alone in Europe?

@russianforces @PSinovets What if we’re in a situation where there are already combined-arms operation on mainland Europe, where UK forces participate? Do you see any plausible scenarios in that situation?

@PSinovets Yes, but if the scenario is that Russia is attacking a UK ally, I don't see how a threat of a UK strike deters Russia and at the same time a threat of a Russian return strike does not deter the UK.

@russianforces @Emma_Pike_ Well said, Pavel. I’m not a member of the IPCC, or an expert in, say, atmospheric modelling. But I still have pretty strong views on climate change - and I express them from time to time - it’s up to you to decide whether you want to take my views seriously.

What I find amusing about many responses is that @Emma_Pike_ tells people that they are not powerless and they can do something to reduce nuclear threats. And (many) people are, like, "Why does she tell us that we have power? Leave it to 'experts'."

Happy International Women's Day! 🎉 With both ONN’s inaugural director @laura_rockwood and the current one @Andreas_Persbo being gender champions, we are committed to supporting women in our field! Read more abt our commitments with @gcnuclearpolicy: oneearthfuture.org/en/open-nuclea…

It depends on the size of the explosion, but a detonation in space could have far more serious consequences than knocking out satellites. If it’s big enough, it’s going to knock out a few things on Earth as well. nytimes.com/2024/02/21/wor…

Officials tell CNN that the Russian nuclear anti-satellite weapon “remains under development and is not yet in orbit.” cnn.com/2024/02/14/pol…

The satellite launched on February 9, Cosmos-2575, is said to be a Razbeg small optical reconnaissance satellite. Sun-syncronous orbit suggests that it is. So, I very much doubt that it's about this one

If all of this is related to Cosmos 2575, and there’s talk about a nuclear payload, I will have a certified brain melt.