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io1ka
212 posts
This news feels overblown because it is actually the standard across most competitive markets
According to recent study, percentage of trader who lose money in
> Options: 90%
> Futures: 95%
> Day trading: 80%
> Sports books: 90%
People underestimate just how win-lose most market structures are, especially if you are taking directional views with binary outcomes
Compared to most of these, prediction markets are surprisingly still less concentrated
The Wall Street Journal@WSJ
A WSJ analysis found 67% of Polymarket profits goes to just 0.1% of accounts, while most traders are in the red. Most Kalshi users also lose money. on.wsj.com/4td9UPy
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One of the hardest things to do in mention markets is size up your bets as your portfolio grows.
Thanks @ mm33 for recommending this graph be added to the P&L analyzer, free in Mentions Terminal!
You can see I've done ok at sizing up my bets as my port has grown! From an average of $800 per event closer to $2.5k.
Though, if you flip to % (in reply below), you'll see my % of portfolio went from about 6% down to like 3% on average... so not quite sizing up relative to bankroll.
Reply with your charts! Would love to see some more data...
and lmk if you think this tool is useful or what else you'd like to see!
Free to check out at mentionsterminal.com/year-pnl
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Since we’re sharing Jane Street interview stories, here’s mine from 2009 when Jane Street NYC was <200 people. Final round was a gauntlet of math/stats theory interviews, back to back for hours with different interviewers.
My favorite: “1000 ninjas are standing in a circle, each holding a sword. #1 kills #2, #3 kills #4, and so on. It keeps going around and around until one ninja is left standing. Which ninja is it?”
I love it because the problem is so easy to understand, and it rewards a beautiful progression — you start with brute force to build intuition, spot the pattern, then derive a clean theory that solves it for any arbitrary N. It’s a beautiful distillation.
Deedy@deedydas
Jane Street made ~$40B in 2025 with 3,500 employees, a ~2x from the year before. At ~65-70% profit margin, that's $8M profit / employee, the highest for a 1000+ ppl company. High-frequency trading continues to be the most efficient money making engine. I want to share an old story about my Jane Street interview in 2014. Jane Street was known for hiring a lot of math, physics and CS olympiad winners from top universities and putting them through many rounds - including, for trading roles, a gauntlet of mental math. It was my 6th interview and my final round and I recall being asked "What is the next day after today in DD/MM/YYYY where all the digits are unique?" They'd toy with you and say "You can use a pencil and paper, if you want" but you knew that was an instant no. Painstakingly and as quickly as I could, I came to an answer. "How confident are you that this is correct on a 0-1 probability scale?" the interviewer said. "0.95", I blurted out, not fully knowing how to answer that. "Are you sure?" After thinking harder for a few more seconds, I realized I could've flipped the digits around to get a closer date. I gave the interviewer my answer. It was correct. "0.95 huh?" he chuckled. That's when I knew I failed. Note: fwiw, other companies that come close in efficiency are - Tether ($90M+ profit/emp) - Hyperliquid ($80M+ profit/emp) and on revenue: - Valve ($50M/emp) - OnlyFans ($37M/emp) - Craigslist ($14M/emp) - Anthropic ($12M/emp, run rate) - OpenAI ($8M/emp, run rate) For comparison, Nvidia is very efficient at scale and is $4.4M/emp.
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Just unreal to wake up and see this number in my account. I’m truly blessed :)
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follow @PredictHQ_ and join their competition. you can also win cash prizes for simply engaging in the community
theres two weeks left so join while you can. and for the next two weeks the leaderboard is based on % account growth
tight race at the top currently
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