A_Abranches 💜🦇🔊

This moment from February 2025 may go down as one of the most prescient exchanges in modern diplomatic history. Zelenskyy warned Trump that while the United States may feel protected by an ocean today, a time could come when America would need help in war. Trump scolded him instead. Perhaps he should have listened. Zelenskyy: First of all, during the war, everybody has problems, even you. But you have nice ocean and don't feel now. But you will feel it in the future. God bless – Trump: You don't know that. You don't know that. Don't tell us what we're going to feel. We're trying to solve a problem. Don't tell us what we're going to feel. Zelenskyy: I'm not telling you. I am answering on these questions. Trump: Because you're in no position to dictate that. Vance: That's exactly what you're doing. Trump: You are in no position to dictate what we're going to feel. We're going to feel very good.

$LINK $GLNK $CLNK Smart man, will be $100 by EOY if everything aligns. Triple digits is FUD Long Term The repricing will be absolutely ludicrous. VERY FEW are positioned. Majority will be chasing in the triple digits. MARK MY WORDS NFA

@TheLinkPanda Am I in

THE ULTIMATE $LINK MARINE COLLAGE! I've gotten sooo many requests... ALL IN THIS TOGETHER!

When life’s demands consume our waking hours, And parenthood and labor claim our breath, When healing steals away what once was ours, And weary souls do battle close to death— Mistake not silence for a cold retreat, Nor scarce-sent word as love grown thin and frail; Some bear such burdens none can dare repeat, And pour their whole hearts out where duties call. The truest friend gives grace when grace is due, And reads the quiet between word and sign, For those who struggle still remain most true— Their love unspoken, yet no less divine. So check with care before thou turn away; The absent heart may love thee more each day.

Adult friendships require grace. People are busy. People are working. People are parenting. People are burnt out. People are healing. People are fighting health battles. People are prioritizing their true responsibilities. Don’t mistake minimal communication for a lack of care or love. Some of us are just getting by and giving everything we have to our families. Check in before you check out.

Check out this cool event Luke Abranches & Wyatt Feegrado: Favorite Child Tour on Sun, Mar 01 @7:00 PM! stubhub.com/luke-abranches…

Creed of Relentless Becoming Hold fierce delusions bright as suns unborn, Obsess with visions of the best that’s near; Let fervent labor through the soul be sworn— Work smart, and swift, with purpose sharp and clear. Feed well the flame; move daily through the strife, Let weighted strength make sinew, mind, and bone; In seven sacred hours renew thy life, And slay distractions till the self is known. Meet fear each morn and bid it be thy friend, Walk edges where the trembling weak withdraw; Through learning’s boundless seas thy breadth extend, Embrace all art, all science, and all awe. Be guide and joy—let love thy banner run: To live full-throttle is to live as one.

To become LIMITLESS, you must stop living like a commoner -​Have insane delusional optimism. - Obsess over the best case scenario. -​Follow your obsession with intensity. -​Work smart, hard, and fast. -​Eat clean and move daily. -​Master weighted calisthenics. -​Sleep 7 hours and kill distractions. -​Face your fears every single day. -​Live life at the very edge. -​Be a polymath and learn everything. -​Lead your family and have more fun.

Valentine’s - Rhys @ Nari A shimmered hush where crystal stems align, Red halos circling oak and candleglow, You sit enshrined in cedar, leaf, and vine, A still point where the swirling evenings flow. The Rhys bottles stand like a vintner’s choir, Soft labels catching barlight as they gleam, Each cork released becomes a small desire, A note you add to memory’s deep decantered dream. Nari’s script curves blue across the page, A February night, precise and bright; Courses arrive, and with them, turning stage, Your laughter seasons tannin, salt, and light. So let these frames, in wood and wine imbued, Preserve you, poised, in warm infinitude.

Ramses Garden From balcony’s perch, the ceiling lamps descend, Thin midnight stems that bloom in pools of light, They trace a quiet axis to the end Where murmured voices soften into night. The counter hums with bottles, notes, and wire, A scattered altar to the workday’s grace; Green leaves lean in like listeners around fire, Their shadows writing forests on the space. A ladder lifts the gaze toward the loft, Half-hidden stage for secrets, cloth, and chrome; Below, the floor shines dark and oddly soft, A river where these gathered lives find home. Here commerce, art, and all the plants conspire To make a narrow room breathe warm desire.

As DeFi moves into being a catalyst for building Infrastructure via Solar and Storage. The next step is the Electric Grid.

Against Corposlop - These markets once were oracles of sight, Where traders sought to price the world’s unknown, But now their flames burn low with hollow light, In games of chance, not wisdom, they are thrown. The short-term feeds on folly, not on truth, Their gold from desperate hands and weary hearts; Yet still beneath the ashes breathes a youth That dreams of nobler, more enduring arts. Let hedgers rise—through risk find balance fair, And build new coins on knowledge, not deceit; Where wealth and insight mingle, pure as air, Each loss transmuted, honest and complete. So tear down corposlop; let finance grow, From fear of ruin into truth’s bright flow.

Recently I have been starting to worry about the state of prediction markets, in their current form. They have achieved a certain level of success: market volume is high enough to make meaningful bets and have a full-time job as a trader, and they often prove useful as a supplement to other forms of news media. But also, they seem to be over-converging to an unhealthy product market fit: embracing short-term cryptocurrency price bets, sports betting, and other similar things that have dopamine value but not any kind of long-term fulfillment or societal information value. My guess is that teams feel motivated to capitulate to these things because they bring in large revenue during a bear market where people are desperate - an understandable motive, but one that leads to corposlop. I have been thinking about how we can help get prediction markets out of this rut. My current view is that we should try harder to push them into a totally different use case: hedging, in a very generalized sense (TLDR: we're gonna replace fiat currency) Prediction markets have two types of actors: (i) "smart traders" who provide information to the market, and earn money, and necessarily (ii) some kind of actor who loses money. But who would be willing to lose money and keep coming back? There are basically three answers to this question: 1. "Naive traders": people with dumb opinions who bet on totally wrong things 2. "Info buyers": people who set up money-losing automated market makers, to motivate people to trade on markets to help the info buyer learn information they do not know. 3. "Hedgers": people who are -EV in a linear sense, but who use the market as insurance, reducing their risk. (1) is where we are today. IMO there is nothing fundamentally morally wrong with taking money from people with dumb opinions. But there still is something fundamentally "cursed" about relying on this too much. It gives the platform the incentive to seek out traders with dumb opinions, and create a public brand and community that encourages dumb opinions to get more people to come in. This is the slide to corposlop. (2) has always been the idealistic hope of people like Robin Hanson. However, info buying has a public goods problem: you pay for the info, but everyone in the world gets it, including those who don't pay. There are limited cases where it makes sense for one org to pay (esp. decision markets), but even there, it seems likely that the market volumes achieved with that strategy will not be too high. This gets us to (3). Suppose that you have shares in a biotech company. It's public knowledge that the Purple Party is better for biotech than the Yellow Party. So if you buy a prediction market share betting that the Yellow Party will win the next election, on average, you are reducing your risk. Mathematical example: suppose that if Purple wins, the share price will be a dice roll between [80...120], and if Yellow wins, it's between [60...100]. If you make a size $10 bet that Yellow will win, your earnings become equivalent to a dice roll between [70...110] in both cases. Taking a logarithmic model of utility, this risk reduction is worth $0.58. Now, let's get to a more fascinating example. What do people who want stablecoins ultimately want? They want price stability. They have some future expenses in mind, and they want a guarantee that will be able to pay those expenses. But if crypto grows on top of USD-backed stablecoins, crypto is ultimately not truly decentralized. Furthermore, different people have different types of expenses. There has been lots of thinking about making an "ideal stablecoin" that is based on some decentralized global price index, but what if the real solution is to go a step further, and get rid of the concept of currency altogether? Here's the idea. You have price indices on all major categories of goods and services that people buy (treating physical goods/services in different regions as different categories), and prediction markets on each category. Each user (individual or business) has a local LLM that understands that user's expenses, and offers the user a personalized basket of prediction market shares, representing "N days of that user's expected future expenses". Now, we do not need fiat currency at all! People can hold stocks, ETH, or whatever else to grow wealth, and personalized prediction market shares when they want stability. Both of these examples require prediction markets denominated in an asset people want to hold, whether interest-bearing fiat, wrapped stocks, or ETH. Non-interest-bearing fiat has too-high opportunity cost, that overwhelms the hedging value. But if we can make it work, it's much more sustainable than the status quo, because both sides of the equation are likely to be long-term happy with the product that they are buying, and very large volumes of sophisticated capital will be willing to participate. Build the next generation of finance, not corposlop.

@newstart_2024 Public speaking,

Yuval Noah Harari warns that AI will most easily replace the narrow cognitive skills society has long prized in education—math, engineering, word-based tasks, numbers, charts, technical drawings. The skills likely to remain valuable in 5–10 years are those that combine intelligence with physical body/motor coordination, real human social interaction, and emotional depth. His example: martial arts. It demands mental training, physical conditioning, and actual human opponents—elements AI cannot authentically replicate. Anything purely intellectual and narrow? Vulnerable. Anything whole-body, emotionally rich, and socially embedded? Much harder to automate. Which skill do you believe will still be distinctly human and valuable in 2035?

LINK futures and Micro LINK futures have officially launched on @CMEGroup, the world’s largest CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange. chainlinktoday.com/chainlink-futu…

A single crystal clings to winter’s wire, A fragile star on threads of dusk and rime, Its facets catching pale, reluctant fire, A frozen flower at the edge of time. Around it, grasses darken into haze, Thin strokes of shadow on a ghost-blue sky; They bow like scribbled prayers, or half‑lost praise, To one clear geometry of cold on high. So still it hangs, yet seems about to drift, A thought made visible, then almost gone, Between the barren earth and clouded lift, Brief as the violet hush before the dawn. O snowflake, burning faint in winter’s breath, You prove how delicate the art of death.

Tiny miracles falling from the sky ❄️✨

Final Spike Two iron horses face across the plain, Their engines stilled where East and West converge. A spike of gold made mountain labor vain, As hammer blows let distant coasts emerge. From Omaha’s dust to Sacramento’s piers, Ten thousand hands drove rails through rock and snow, The Chinese crews and immigrants of years, Unnamed, yet bearing all the nation’s load. Here Utah’s wind recalls the telegraphed “Done,” That single word sent humming down the wire, When Jupiter and 119 as one Breathed wreaths of steam to crown the world’s desire. Now bronze remembers where the hammers rang, And silent tracks still echo when we sang.

The Niantic: A Voyage Between Worlds — A wooden vessel rests in glass display, The Niantic bears her steadfast name, While seekers wander streets by night and day, Pursuing virtual beasts through AR’s frame. Two journeys bound within this title rare: One sailed the seas with sail and timber strong, The other bids the world leave couch and chair, To walk with strangers, moving all night long. Yet both are quests for wonder and adventure— The old ship sought new lands beyond the known, While Niantic’s app became the new indenture, That brought the globe together, flesh and phone.

@Mollyploofkins Agree

Agree or Disagree? Johnathan Ross murdered Renee Nicole Good

@ElonMusk_LordX Yes

@nancylacore We need the Leadership. This shit show has to stop

After decades of service to our country, a career that started as a Navy pilot and finished as a three star admiral, I was removed from my position without cause. I still have more to give, more to fight for, more work to do — and I am not done serving. Join my team at nancylacore.com

@honeymoon250 89

What are the chances you'd vote for Gavin Newsom for President in 2028? From 0-100

@Trump_Jr_Q Yes

BREAKING: New CNN Poll says Trump is the worst President in history. Do you believe that? A. Yes B. No