Andrew Sudac

@ivancarrino Si el BCRA no compra dolares, la posicion de reservas seria mas debil y el dolar subiria.

Ok, tienen razón los que dicen que este no es el tipo de cambio se mercado. El tipo de cambio de mercado, SIN INTERVENCIÓN, ¡sería mucho más bajo!

@teppofelin Popper!!!

Data-first thinking is a trap Here's the full introductory chapter papermark.com/view/cmnr0cc9k…

@gaurav_kochar Brasil will produce 185-190 million mt of soybeans this year. Brasil has enough land to expand all products together. Land is not competing to expand one against others.

🇧🇷🌽 Brazil’s grain map is shifting again — and this matters globally. Brazil’s 2026/27 corn crop is forecast at 136 MMT, up 1.5% YoY, as acreage expands to 23 million hectares. The driver isn’t just yield — it’s economics. Farmers are rotating harder into corn and soybeans, pulled by: • strong corn ethanol demand • better crush/feed margins • weaker relative returns in rice and wheat • continued expansion of the safrinha second-crop model (world-grain.com) The big macro takeaway: Brazil is becoming less of a “soy-only” story and more of a flexible grain + fuel superpower. Every extra hectare moving toward corn strengthens: ✅ global feed grain supply ✅ corn ethanol output ✅ meat production competitiveness ✅ export leverage vs US/Black Sea origins This keeps downside pressure on global corn prices, but it also raises the floor for soymeal, DDGS, and protein complex flows. The world’s grain trade is increasingly being priced off Brazilian planting decisions, not just US weather. Watch ethanol margins, not just rainfall. That’s the new signal. #Corn #Brazil #Soybeans #Agriculture #Grains #Ethanol #CommodityMarkets

@gaurav_kochar And Argentina maize crop was just raised by Bolsa de Rosario to 67 million mt.

@AdrianRavier Insightful

Tregua entre EEUU e Iran. Baja el riesgo país.

@OrdoliberalBG @herder_verlag @LEStiftung Is there an English version?

Die 1. Auflage erschien im Sommer 2023, die Neuausgabe vor wenigen Wochen: „75 Jahre Soziale Marktwirtschaft in 7,5 Kapiteln“ ist der Versuch einer kurzweiligen Spurensuche zur Geschichte der Sozialen Marktwirtschaft. 1/2 @herder_verlag @LEStiftung

@ryankatzrosene What’s your opinion about biofuels?

Higher fossil fuel prices are causing countries to expand their biofuels production and blends: This is expected to increase food prices (for instance, cooking oils will become more expensive as supply tightens) leaderpost.com/pmn/business-p…

@JesusFerna7026 Thanks.

@AndrewS35304 I believed I said 138 in 2013 and around 120 now.

I concluded my Henry Family lecture at the University of Miami last Thursday by saying: “Two things are important right now in life: deep learning and fertility. Everything else is noise.” We are only starting to glimpse what these two forces will do to global life over the next fifty years. And they interact: deep learning will reshape demographics, and demographic collapse will reshape automation. Nearly all my posts on X (except some parochial commentary on Spanish economic policy) revolve around these two facts. So does most of my current research. Even work that does not seem directly connected turns out to be, once you look carefully. My papers on geoeconomics and international macro are about figuring out some of the consequences of deep learning and fertility. For example, my work on China focuses on its abysmal demographic future and how the U.S. is positioning itself (rightly or wrongly) to address it. And my work on political polarization and the welfare state is about the consequences of decades of low fertility in Western Europe. When people talk about political change in Western Europe, they are talking about low fertility, whether they know it or not. It is not clear that modern representative democracy can survive sustained fertility rates of 1.3. I do not say that with glee. The reason I decided to spend my life on academic work in economics is that I realized, when I was much younger, that daily events are irrelevant. The things that concern the media and 99 percent of commentary on X are largely irrelevant. One political party does better or worse in the next electoral cycle because of internal fights or a good campaign. At a fundamental level, none of it matters: the political outcome 25 years from now will not depend on those accidents. As Alexander Gerschenkron said, Clio is not a tidy housewife. The rise of any political movement is always full of advances and retreats. Social change waxes and wanes. But at the end of the day, as my favorite historian Fernand Braudel put it: “The events of history are merely surface disturbances, crests of foam that the tides of history carry on their strong backs.” or in the much better original: “Les événements de l’histoire ne sont que des agitations de surface, des crêtes d’écume que les marées de l’histoire portent sur leur dos puissant.” The tides of history today are deep learning and fertility.

@ABENEGASLYNCH_h Ojala el Dr Milei pueda convertir este articulo en un libro para beneplacito de todos los Smith scholars. Claramente desde ayer hay un antes y un despues en la literatura sobre Adam Smith.

Tal como le anuncié en privado al Presidente, remití su FORMIDABLE columna sobre Adam Smith a colegas en distintas casas de estudio y las devoluciones rebalsan en ponderaciones y anuncios de nuevos reenvios. Un texto de calidad educativa sustentado en riguroso esqueleto analítico

@JesusFerna7026 2- Si aplicamos la regla de poblacion de largo plazo y asumimos que los nacimientos se estabilizan en 80 millones, con una esperanza de vida de 82 años a fin de siglo, daria una poblacion mundial de 6600 millones de personas. Esta de acuerdo? Muchas gracias.

@ClaudioGianni El post de Agri Market dice que dado el ritmo de embarques estan aumentando la proyeccion de exportaciones de maiz.

Ucrania, cuarto exportador mundial de maíz, también por debajo de su potencial de exportación para este grano...

@SalvaDiStefano No alcanza con ese superavit primario. Falta.

Con superávit fiscal primario equivalente a 1,4% del PBI, déficit de cuenta corriente equivalente al 1,1% del PBI, y una cuenta financiera superavitaria del 1,7% del PBI, no deberíamos tener ningún problema cambiario, y la inflación debería ajustar a la baja en los próximos meses. Los errores y omisiones en la balanza de pagos representan el 0,6% del PBI, no es una diferencia significativa en función de los datos que reflejan la cuenta financiera y el resulta fiscal primario.

@ClaudioGianni 185-190

Gana consenso la estimación en torno de los 180 M tn para la cosecha de soja brasileña...

@ekwufinance This is not a good recommendation. Only some commodities serve as a hedge against inflation. It depends on the context and the type of commodities. See the excellent book by AlanFuterman and Ivo Sarjanovic on this topic, where they debunk this myth.

UBS: Current macro environment favors commodities - Commodities hedge inflation risk - Gold hedges geopolitical uncertainty and rising government debt We live in volatile times, so expect elevated volatility. The recent gold/commodity selloff doesn’t negate the long-term thesis... it’s just part of the game. - Central banks, the major gold driver, are still buying - Supply shortages are bullish for commodities - Copper deficit is widening - So are uranium and silver While predicting short-term price movements is hard, over the long term commodities have to rise.

@gaurav_kochar Argentina is not transitioning to B20. The mandate remains at B7.5, although there is a temporary technical allowance to blend up to 20% if it is economically viable.

🚨🌍 Vegetable oils are entering a structurally bullish regime. What’s unfolding is not a transient rally, but a multi-layered supply constriction driven by policy-induced demand destruction for food use. The catalysts are intensifying: 🇮🇩 Indonesia’s B50 mandate from July is poised to sequester an additional 1.5–2.0 MMT of palm oil into the fuel complex in H2. 🇺🇸 The US renewable fuels framework is simultaneously amplifying pull on global vegoil feedstocks. 🇦🇷 Argentina’s migration toward B20 🇧🇷 Brazil’s potential move beyond B15 …further entrenches the diversion of edible oils into the energy chain. The consequence: 📉 tighter food-use availability 📈 a materially higher global price floor ⚠️ elevated risk of balance-sheet deficits in vegoil markets Geopolitics is now compounding the squeeze. 🛢️ The Iran conflict has re-rated Brent higher 🚢 Argentina soyoil freight has repriced to nearly $150/ton ⚓ Hormuz dislocation fears are precipitating a scarcity of bulk carrier capacity This is transforming freight from a cost variable into a market-moving bullish catalyst. 🇮🇳 India remains physically comfortable for now, with import pipelines intact. But make no mistake: price discovery is no longer anchored solely to supply-demand fundamentals. Indian vegoils are increasingly becoming a derivative of crude, biofuel policy, and maritime risk premia. The deeper implication: vegoils are financializing into an energy-linked macro asset class. That regime shift could define price action for the rest of the year. #PalmOil #SoybeanOil #Biofuels #CrudeOil #CommodityMarkets #India #Macro #Inflation #AgriCommodities

@EduardoVanin4 Do you mean that there’s discretionary demand of sbo, above the 15pct current mandate?

Biodiesel demand in Brz is ramping up and fixing prices of old contracts are favoring crushers. Small fuel distributors are asking for more volumes. BD prices are below diesel in many places. Tradings are buying back paper and selling oil in the Dom. market, reverting exports.

@AdrianRavier Lo lei. La verdad que esta genial el articulo!

Por qué soy un economista austriaco? Una respuesta de Brian C. Albrecht a Brian Caplan que al menos desde el abstract parece excelente!

@DiegoMac227 Estos niveles record son per capita o agregados? Donde quedo el individualismo metodologico que predican, con razon, los austriacos?

✅️“el PIB está en niveles récord, el consumo privado está en niveles récord, las exportaciones están en niveles récord y la cosecha está en niveles récord”.

@GabrielSoglio1 Los diputados oficialistas pueden cargar nafta en las estaciones de YPF? O tienen que cargar en Shell?

Es el diputado de LLA Alejandro Bongiovanni. Accedió a un crédito de $ 255 millones del Banco Nación, es decir, del Estado. Trabajan para destruir el Estado mientras se benefician de él…