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I’m still here, but I won’t be posting as much now that X has become a nest of vipers. Catch me on Bluesky (andyharless[dot]bsky[dot]social) or Threads (adharless) if you’re into that kind of thing.
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Andy Harless 🌱🇺🇦🇺🇸✡️📈🌴🥥
26.1K posts
Andy Harless 🌱🇺🇦🇺🇸✡️📈🌴🥥
@AndyHarless
datums scientist, economist, rhapsode, urban hiker, XCH, StellaCoin, pre08 NGDP trajectory maxi, pair of ragged claws scuttling across the floors of silent seas
beyond the wide world's end Katılım Mayıs 2008
425 Takip Edilen3.4K Takipçiler
Peg offers are up:
dexie.space/offers/NGDPLT/…
dexie.space/offers/INGDP/X…
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Finally got the price adjustment trades in. Peg offers within a few days (possibly today).
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#timestamp I haven’t looked at the GDP report yet or done any calculations at all, so y’all’re welcome to front-run the NGDPLT CAT quarterly fixing over the next few hours. I’ll have price adjustment trades in later today on @TibetSwap and peg offers on @dexie_space in a few days
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Trump was wrong about everything, and despite being as wrong as he could possibly be, he has somehow managed to get even wronger.
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@Aella_Girl But maybe this: in most species women don't develop breasts until they have a child, so *having boobs* is evidence of fertility. Start with this and then apply sexual selection (i.e., men like women with big boobs because their daughters will be attractive).
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@Aella_Girl Well, it makes sense that women with big boobs get bigger tips, because in the evolutionary environment, if a man encounters a woman who is breastfeeding, there is a good chance she is the mother of his child or of a close relative's child.
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If there's not already a recession going on, there will be one in the fairly near future. The only question is whether the Fed will have to raise interest rates to get us there. In the immediate time frame, I think the Fed will be patient & see if the recession shows up by itself
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@DKThomp @jasonfurman Also unemployment rate at almost a cyclical low is different from an unemployment rate that has risen noticeably above the cyclical low, even if it’s not a big absolute difference. (You’ve heard of the Sahm rule.)
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@DKThomp @jasonfurman It’s really not a fair comparison to look at an inflation rate that was on a downward trajectory nearing the target and compare it with one that was roughly flat after failing to make additional progress toward the target. The inflation problem was solved until Trump unsolved it.
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Observation by @jasonfurman: If you zoom all the way out, the Trump economy’s first 14 months look very very very similar to the Biden economy’s last 14 months, but most people have changed their mind about whether the economy is good.
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@EconBerger Or it’s starting now or it’s about to start, whatever. Possibly it won’t happen at all, but the war makes that a long shot. Personally my guess is that NBERBCDC will eventually set the peak at November 2025.
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if it wasn't for the war, I'd say that very negative takes on the US labor market based on this report would be a big overreaction
(just like people overreacted with optimism last month)
Guy Berger@EconBerger
BLS charts: 1/ Following on the heels of two good jobs report, an ugly report... big decline in nonfarm employment, a jump in the unemployment rate. A win for "Team Doomer", a whiff for "Team Reacceleration."
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@EconBerger (But even that’s not so different from 2006-2008 or 1988-1990, or for that matter 1998-2000, except maybe in the character of the mushiness.)
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@EconBerger It’s not a precedent yet (and probably won’t be) because the rising unemployment will, in retrospect, be associated with the recession that probably started a couple of months ago. (Maybe a precedent that there can be a very long period of mushiness preceding a recession.)
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@Noahpinion I can’t tell what figure of speech this is. Maybe just sincere nonsense? What to do with mentally incompetent people is an inherent problem for a society that values personal liberty—not a problem specific to progressives.
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What's interesting here is that even though America's extreme poverty is extremely low, it's now probably a bit higher than China's. This is due to the fact that we let mentally incompetent people live on the street, because progressives see this as a form of welfare.
Kane 謝凱堯@kane
I normalized the Y-axis and made the United States lime green for easier visibility.
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@Noahpinion On domestic policy, I'd say Obama's early macro policies (with Democrats still in control) didn't adequately address the severity of the depression. OTOH Biden got macro policy right and thereby plunged the US into chaos, so I suppose I shouldn't be second-guessing Obama.
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@Noahpinion Agree on Ukraine and China, but...surely we are where we are today largely because of Trump's withdrawal from Obama's agreement with Iran and not because Obama trusted them enough to make the agreement in the first place. (Maybe he trusted the US electorate too much.)
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I love Barack Obama. On domestic issues he was a great President. Plus he got Bin Laden.
But I'm forced to admit that on foreign policy, he was terrible -- he ignored Russia's first invasion of Ukraine, didn't address growing Chinese power, and trusted Iran's leaders.
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@mattyglesias @Nowooski Not even clear it was a blunder. Hamas correctly estimated
- Netanyahu was so evil that a brutal attack on Israeli civilians would have the ultimate effect of turning international sentiment against Israel
- US election effect would hasten the downfall of Western civilization
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Was 10/7 the biggest strategic blunder in human history?
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