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Woke Ann Richards
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@scarylawyerguy TX was 12 pts to the right of the nation in 2024 (which was R+2). Polls now show D+8 or higher year. That means TX baseline could be R+4 or less. We don’t know the penalty for Paxton’s personal scandals. Talarico prob can’t overcome an R+4 lean. But he could sneak by in an R+2
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Can someone who knows TX politics better than me explain whether Talarico has a legit shot? Seems like Paxton's corruption and immorality is well known among voters, and at least among Rs, not really an issue, so how does Talarico break the 32 year shut out streak?
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@quasiantipodean Those are certainly hypotheticals. We’ll see what happens.
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@AnnUpdatesHQ Texas loves Paxton. He was a great AG. We kicked out Cornyn to get Paxton.
Talarico is a joke candidate like Beto. The left loves him but he's got no chance in Texas. When he does his weird church stuff for the whole state, he's done.
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People calling Texas a 2018 repeat aren't paying attention
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@BigGayRainbow @twtacc59 True. But that doesn’t erase the past. It’s in the culture.
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@AnnUpdatesHQ @twtacc59 Tbf it’s an open question if Iowa will still be a headliner for the Democratic primaries
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Is this a bad move on Sand’s part?
Seems like bringing in an establishment Dem, even a moderate one, risks nationalizing a race he needs to keep hyper local to win
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡@PollTracker2024
CNN: Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear (D) is heading to Iowa on June 7 to campaign with Democratic candidate for Iowa Governor Rob Sand.
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@twtacc59 @BigGayRainbow Yes, let’s start with the basics. Why do random politicians come to Iowa? To run for president. Every living person in Iowa understands that because it’s Iowa.
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@AnnUpdatesHQ @BigGayRainbow So they won’t know that he’s popular despite living in the neighboring state, but will acknowledge his potential bid for an election that is 2 years from now ? And we’re talking about Andy Beshear ? Let’s be serious for a minute
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@LillianBelle2 Didn’t voters have to approve this map too?
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Makes sense why one of the last acts of the R commission was to place a plan to move to gerrymandered districts on the ballot.
Lillian Belle@LillianBelle2
Democrats flipped the county commission in Deschutes County, completing its shift to Democrats.
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@DrewSav Texas senate is kind of giving 2016.
Paxton has the Clinton problem: baggage, scandal, distrust.
Talarico has the Trump thing: says stuff that scares people, but has heterodox traits that broaden his appeal
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Talarico isn't exactly the ideal statewide Democratic candidate for Texas but Ken Paxton isn't exactly the ideal Republican candidate either.
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@atrupar “I can’t feed my family”
“Have you tried calling god a “he?”
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Paxton: "He's a threat to our very way of life. I mean, he's a vegan who thinks God is nonbinary."
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Low T Talarico vs. High Costs Ken
If these are the battle lines… I like Dems chances.
Acyn@Acyn
Paxton: My opponent is the most extreme radical the Democrats have ever nominated. He's even running a vegan campaign, whatever that is. Others refer to him as Low-T Talarico.
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@BasedIllinoisan A story in 3 decades
‘00s center right embraces far right
‘10s center right loses control to far right
‘20s center right is expelled by far right
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This is the final decade of the American center right
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☑️ Run a vanity campaign
☑️ Force incumbent into a runoff in an election they would have won
⬛️ Hand seat over to Dems
Close enough, welcome back Shane Hazel
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@SubduedRadical @riesi041 @SwebWulf53543 @RealSKeshel The other half of the quote is “and a lock on the door” but state media can’t let conservatives hear the truth
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@AnnUpdatesHQ @riesi041 @SwebWulf53543 @RealSKeshel A lot of Texans are that.
That's relevant to who wins the state.
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The entire polling average is propped up by a single +8 poll. Plus 8.
I mean, Dems haven’t won a statewide race in 32 years and people are running straight past a tilt by a hair, all the way to 900,000 margin?
Ludicrous.
Woke Ann Richards@AnnUpdatesHQ
People calling Texas a 2018 repeat aren't paying attention
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@CrassPolitical Sure but I don’t see the value in campaigning alongside a presidential hopeful in your Trump +11 state when you’re trying to make people forget about their presidential leanings and vote for you
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@AnnUpdatesHQ Not Beshear. He's inoccuous. AOC a different matter.
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Dems need to stop hedging because of what “Fox” might say.
It’s baked in that they’re going to say the worst possible extreme no matter what.
Woke Ann Richards@AnnUpdatesHQ
@mcldenisj @borbio23 When has FOX ever used the truth when it didn’t benefit them. When have voters ever looked up the lies FOX tells them. Look I’m not saying this is some huge blunder. I just think strategically it has no benefit for Sand and a minor chance of a downside
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@mcldenisj @borbio23 I just think it’s dumb to bring a presidential hopeful on the campaign trail. The last thing Sand needs is voters thinking about national politics. Bashear doesn’t do anything for him that his own brand doesn’t do
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@AnnUpdatesHQ @borbio23 Fox is going to lie and paint the worst possible picture no matter what Dems do.
They need to stop campaigning and governing like any other outcome is possible.
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@mcldenisj @borbio23 When has FOX ever used the truth when it didn’t benefit them. When have voters ever looked up the lies FOX tells them. Look I’m not saying this is some huge blunder. I just think strategically it has no benefit for Sand and a minor chance of a downside
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@AnnUpdatesHQ @borbio23 Beshear is a net-positive national figure with low name ID and absurdly strong favorables in a Trump+30 state.
If the GOP wants to attack Sand for appearing with one of the most popular red-state Democrats in America, I’m not sure that does what they think it does.
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@GovLake @BigGayRainbow I agree, and probably why Sand is making that choice
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@AnnUpdatesHQ @BigGayRainbow Yeah but if they do look him up or promote him, that would hopefully be what they see first.
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@GovLake @BigGayRainbow They’re not going to know that either. Fox News will make sure all those GOP leaners he needs to win will know a National Dem is coming to town though.
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@AnnUpdatesHQ @BigGayRainbow they don’t even know who he is. i think his most notable moment was calling for the left to be more normal (i.e., not saying idiotic phrases like unhoused) which would provably resonate in IA.
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@KeeganLowe6 Fighting arguments no one is having x.com/jocktag/status…
Woke Ann Richards@AnnUpdatesHQ
Talarico is still not the favorite imo, but this is obviously a different race
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@AnnUpdatesHQ Dude Talarico isn’t the favorite and the average is being propped up by a F plus 8 poll which is the outlier here
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